Forecast and levels for EURO - page 37

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.04.09 15:16

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: European Central Bank (ECB) Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

2020-04-09 12:30 GMT | [EUR - ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts]

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts] = More hawkish than expected is good for currency.

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From official report :

  • "The President started the meeting by observing that, while the policy measures taken by the Governing Council at its monetary policy meeting on 11-12 March 2020 had been well calibrated at the time, the scale of the challenges faced had been highly uncertain. Meanwhile, the situation had deteriorated significantly, with nearly all euro area countries in full containment mode owing to the rapid spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19). The situation was unprecedented and the repercussions were also impossible to forecast accurately. Uncertainty on the economic front was creating severe strains in the financial markets, while the message that, first and foremost, fiscal support was required had been well understood, and many governments had already responded. Faced with the risk of the ECB’s monetary policy transmission becoming significantly impaired, there was an urgent need for the Governing Council to reassess its policy stance and instruments to address the economic consequences of the evolving coronavirus pandemic."

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EUR/USD: range price movement by ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts news event

EUR/USD: range price movement by ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts news event

EUR/USD: range price movement by ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts news event

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase: 

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


 
EURUSD is the main currency pair in our time. The largest trading volumes. The largest "audience". In General, both volatility and the largest information spectrum are guaranteed. It is probably not misleading to say that the vast majority of traders have this currency pair in their portfolios. And all world economic and political events are easily reflected in the direction of this cross rate.

This means that it is easier to analyze such an exchange instrument than any other. Of course, there are specific nuances everywhere, but other things being equal, EURUSD is easier to analyze. Therefore, in a period of tension, or some confusion reigning in the markets, it is best to turn to the main currency instrument as a "risk-anti-risk swing".

Gold is an attractive asset during the crisis period, but the metal has strengthened strongly. It is too late (or too early) to think about buying gold. You need to wait for gold to adjust at least to its moving averages on the monthly chart.

Oil. What we observe has no precedent. The cost of a barrel fell to negative values. It would seem that this is the moment to buy. But don't rush it. Oil storage facilities are clogged and there is no demand. At the same time, we are still waiting for macro statistics on the consequences for the world economy. And the Coronavirus itself has not disappeared. It is only necessary to slightly lower the number of infections and deaths, as the governments of Western countries are already planning to open their economies, as if they no longer remember why they put everyone in quarantine.

All this is fraught with a second wave of the epidemic. When the reports for March and April for the leading countries are released, the picture will be depressing. The damage will be estimated in numbers that the world has not seen since the second world war, or has never seen at all. The media will constantly flash messages that this is unprecedented, that it is unprecedented, that it is disastrous, etc.
But if against the background of such statistics, the authorities let people out on the streets, and they infect each other, triggering the second wave of the pandemic — it will be even worse than it is now. After all, no one thinks about it. But in vain.

There will be no V-shaped recovery. This is not even comparable to the 2008 crisis. The economy will take a long time to recover, so you can not rush to "catch falling knives". All the cheaper assets and instruments will not start a sharp recovery. They can easily draw a clear bottom on their long-term time frames, which will be clearly visible. But the bottom, apparently, is not that far away, but it is still too early to talk about it.

Almost all oil storage facilities are filled to the brim with oil. There's nowhere to put it. Global demand for black gold has fallen to record levels. Even a slight recovery in fuel consumption from China does not change the overall picture. At the moment, there is no reason to be optimistic and buy risky assets. Especially with the dollar rising in price across the entire spectrum of the Market.

If you only try to compare and imagine the scale of damage to the world economy, the current coronavirus crisis has already surpassed the crisis of 2008 in its scale. But the figures on macroeconomics have not been released yet. So negative information will continue to flow to the markets. And along with the negative, there will be no optimism.

If the entire ongoing crisis is correlated with the EURUSD pair, it is enough to remember which of the currencies in this pair is risky and which is anti-risk. This is a simple question. With a simple answer.
When analyzing this pair, you should always remember that the European Union has many member countries. Managing the economies of several dozen countries is more difficult than managing the economy of a single country. Therefore, in this regard, the United States is in a better position.
The ECB and the fed are already stimulating their economies. But the fed has already flooded the markets with several trillion dollars in liquidity, which at this stage is still enough to avoid causing a liquidity crisis. And the European Central Bank still continues to increase the volume of stimulus. In this respect, the dollar is also in a better position.
Again, global demand for oil has fallen, and when oil becomes cheaper, the dollar becomes more expensive. Gold is also currently correcting after strong growth. But it can continue to grow at any time (so it is not recommended to buy this period). 

When the economy begins to recover from the crisis, the American economy will recover faster than the European one. This also speaks in favor of the dollar. At the moment of recovery, a crisis of distrust and disagreement will break out in Europe. Reflections on the unity and inviolability of the idea of European integration will hang in the air.
This week, the next EU summit. And if the leaders fail to agree on the release of “coronabonds”, thus distributing the financial burden among all the countries of the bloc, then thinking about the collapse of the EU will no longer seem unimaginable.

So to the question: "Buy or sell?” the answer is clear - sell.

But it is difficult to jump on a volatile trend. Therefore, you should use pending sell orders near the power levels. This is if, for a certain period, the Market will respond with purchases to every news about fewer diseases, more people who have recovered, and, as well, any information concerning the relief of the situation with the coronavirus.
In the same way, the Market can react with purchases if governments of different countries start launching their economies. However, all positive news will be overlaid by negative news, and will usually be reflected in the direction of the exchange rate.

After some time, the markets will realize that the situation is still far from normalization, and the growth that will be formed after the current fall will be completely absorbed.
Some details of the picture may vary, but in General, the result itself (where the price moves) is already obvious, or assumed.

Fans of long-term strategies have probably already drawn a similar corridor on the monthly chart of the EURUSD pair:




If anyone is looking at the corridors of the southern direction, it is about this:




As you can see from the monthly chart, even the unthinkable is possible. In the spectrum of current events, the movement in the pair will rush to the level of parity, since this is the most attractive goal that is located nearby.. Some correction is possible when passing the zone of the first take profit (1.0566). A correction should be used to add volume to an existing sell position.

While the Market still does not know where to move. But this week we will see some volatility. In this case, it doesn't matter which way. Both options are acceptable and taken into account.
If the price manages to move significantly South, then the upper pending sell orders can be removed, since when moving South, while in the profit zone, you should wait for a correction against the position. At the end of it - sell again, thus increasing the volume (lot) without leaving the profit zone.

In order for intraday fluctuations not to affect the decision, it is recommended not to look at them.
To maintain your intentions, it is better to look at the trend periods-month, week, day: 




It is recommended not to rush with sales of growth until the price is in the zone of the power level.
But you shouldn't buy it either. Not under these conditions. Any growth is at risk of continuing the trend.

The best tactic is to sell on growth.


 
Fantastic analysis, thank you. It will be interesting to see how roughly correlated pairs behave as we move forward i.e. will USD leading pairs gain strength ...
 
Bendict Wellstood:
Fantastic analysis, thank you. It will be interesting to see how roughly correlated pairs behave as we move forward i.e. will USD leading pairs gain strength ...

Traders are waiting for a trigger that will move the Market anywhere. Tomorrow, on Thursday (23.04.20), the European Union summit will be held. From an analytical point of view, this is an important event that can be expressed in the nature of tomorrow's trading.

For this period of time, you should prepare for a possible increase in the EURUSD pair, and, upon reaching the first power zone, be ready to sell.
In my case, the first force zone is the vertex formed by 15-14. 04. 20.:

EURUSD Daily force level 1 Sell limit Forex Master Maxim Dlugoborskiy Globtroter


On the daily schedule through the top of the sales line. The nearest one is at 1.0980. There is a high probability that the event on Thursday will be sensitive for the Market (the results of the summit), and will give an opportunity to break out of the side corridor.

As always, there are only two options.
If up, you can meet the price at the power levels, increasing the volume of the operation. This tactic increases the risks, but the reward for the risk increases multiple times.
If down, with the lower border of the channel breaking through in the South direction, then you will temporarily have to move the position with a small lot, until there is a counter-correction against the position. After waiting for a convenient moment, you can add lots while already in the profit zone. This tactic allows you to always be in the +, and adding volume does not leave the “green zone”.

It is worth remembering the state of the Market. The condition is painful and nervous. The fluctuations may be noticeable against the background of comments and statements from each of the members of tomorrow's summit. If the decision is made unambiguously - "Yes” or" no " to joint Eurobonds, this will allow you to definitely exit the flat. If they start mumbling again and reschedule the meeting for the next meeting dates, this may again switch the Market only to events related to the coronavirus.

The EU summit, scheduled to be held via videoconference on 23.04.2020, will obviously not bring positive results within the framework of the agreement on joint recovery of European economies from the current crisis. Yesterday it became known that the proposed budget for 2021-2022 by the European Commission was not approved by the participating countries. They can't agree on the source of funding. And the Netherlands, Germany, Sweden and Austria want to apply additional restrictions to such a program. 

In such circumstances, we should expect a continuation of the downward trend in the EUR USD pair.
But let's wait for tomorrow's summit. We will observe the development of events...

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.04.23 12:25

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: German Manufacturing PMI and range price movement 

2020-04-23 08:30 GMT | [EUR - German Manufacturing PMI]

  • past data is 45.4
  • forecast data is 39.0
  • actual data is 34.4 according to the latest press release 
if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - German Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

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From official report :

  • "The Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI fell sharply from 45.4 in March to a 133-month low of 34.4, reflecting steep and accelerated contractions in output, new orders and employment. However, its decline was softened by a record increase in supplier delivery times and a rise in stock of purchases."

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EUR/USD: range price movement by German Manufacturing PMI news event

EUR/USD: range price movement by German Manufacturing PMI news event

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Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After

  1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
  2. Asctrend indicator in depth
  3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included)
  4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.04.24 12:48

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: German Ifo Business Climate and range price movement 

2020-04-24 09:00 GMT | [EUR - German Ifo Business Climate]

  • past data is 86.1
  • forecast data is 79.8
  • actual data is 74.3 according to the latest press release 
if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - German Ifo Business Climate] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, services, and retailers.

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From theguardian article :

  • "The monthly IFO survey of German business morale has slumped to 74.3, from 85.9 in March. That’s a record low, and also the biggest monthly fall on record. Companies reported that their current economic situation has deteriorated alarmingly, and that they’re extremely worried about the future."

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EUR/USD: range price movement by  German Ifo Business Climate news event

UR/USD: range price movement by German Ifo Business Climate news event

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:


 
In the Forex Market, the EURUSD currency pair performed well last week. 100% execution of the expected movements brought more than 100 points of floating profit. And at the end of the trading week, on Friday, the us dollar began to lose previously achieved boundaries on the background of profit-taking by some traders.  

The Forex Master strategy is not a “scalper " strategy. And Friday's growth, which clearly dissolves the accumulated floating profit, is not a reason to close the position.  

Entering the Market is always difficult and difficult. Almost always after the entry, some drawdown on equity is formed. If Friday's growth stops at the upper limit of the 4-hour

EURUSD weekly daily h4 sud chanels Forex Master Maxim Dlugoborskiy Globtroter

southern channel and the price turns on Monday at the auction, it will look like another classic version of working out the technical level.  

The market does not always show predicted movements. But very often this happens. Therefore, the drawn 4-hour channel should not be taken seriously. This is just a "help". In this situation, there is a risk of the pair moving North. After the fall, growth occurs. But where are the reasons for growth? Neither Europe nor the United States has them. But in this case, the EURUSD pair is on the swing (or scales). And if anyone is getting stronger in the current conditions, it is the dollar.  

The crisis has not gone away. Fears for the global economy are mostly negative. It is felt that the EURUSD pair is moving down not because of the strength of the dollar, but because of the weakness of the Euro. 
The fundamental background for the Euro currency is very contradictory and unstable. European politicians have demonstrated their inability to agree on anything. And in the US, decisions are made much faster. As part of the post-crisis recovery, the United States will also be ahead of Europe. 
The pair calmed down in their bursts and after all the panicked movements up and down again found themselves at the same levels where they were before the beginning of the coronacrisis. Buyers can try to drive the price higher, but sellers will become more active at the upper borders of the descending channels. Selling on growth is still the best tactic. The EURUSD pair has entered its long drawn-out trip to the South.  

Bulls try to buy at a low price. But why do they think it's time to buy? What if the trend continues? 


EURUSD global down trend Forex Master Maxim Dlugoborskiy Globtroter


After such images, and even supported by the appropriate fundamental, you can draw target lines. Zones marked by three depressions, where the first green border will be passed in the direction of parity. After reaching it, the pair will continue to move to the levels of 2000-2002, the second green line at 0.8618. 

Now the pair is moving South due to the overall negative background. And then it will move South, because America will recover faster, and emerging macro statistics will cause interest rates to rise, which in turn will continue to play in favor of the dollar. At the same time, a crisis of integrity and unity will break out in the European region. This will put pressure on the Euro in the long term.  

The Forex Master strategy includes an offensive campaign to the South on the EURUSD currency pair. If the pair continues to move down next week, it will be possible to state the continuation of the trend and the price separation from the entry level. Having a constant floating profit on equity is always useful for the account. the So-called proto-traded profit zone will help smooth out the inputs for other transactions, and in case they go into the negative, it will compensate them. Positions can be held open for a very long time. The swap is not credited. You can let your profits grow. And while this is happening, nothing prevents you from looking at another currency instrument.
 
You can add a few touches to the long-term technical picture.
The price is located near the lower border of the multi-year triangle and it looks like it intends to break through from the top down.
Then there are three depressions from 15-16 years in the immediate vicinity.
Then the level of parity becomes attractive.

There is ample indirect evidence of the intention of the Market.

EURUSD lower border of triangle Forex Master Maxim Dlugoborskiy Globtroter

EURUSD weekly down chanel and global triangle Forex Master Maxim Dlugoborskiy Globtroter

Using the three-screen system, it is very convenient to observe the development of events.
Intraday timeframes are not confusing, and senior TF objectively show the situation.
The long-term fundamental is not in favor of the European currency.
Still, the growth of the pair should be considered as an opportunity to enter the sale.
The higher the pair rises, the more profitable levels the Market will give us.

EURUSD three screens Forex Master Maxim Dlugoborskiy Globtroter

 
The last video summit of the EU countries did not bring any agreements on sensitive issues, in particular the so-called grants and concessional lending. The panelists left the Market confused. We can only observe the harmful consequences of such failed attempts to find a solution for all members of the European Alliance. 

There were proposals to use strong incentive instruments in the form of 1 trillion euros. They could be distributed within the budget for the next 7 years. But misunderstandings about where to Finance this rescue operation still prevail. 

The German Chancellor said that her country's contribution to the General Fund can be increased, but does not support the idea of preferential loans and grants. On the contrary, the head of the European Commission, von der Leyen, suggests combining funding. 

At the beginning of May (06.05.20), another EU summit is expected, which will obviously take place in a tense atmosphere. The Northern countries of the Alliance do not agree with the southern Europeans on the source of funding. Also, the delay in the implementation of such a program of assistance until 01.06.20. and the desire to shrug off the decision-making process, placing this burden on the European Commission. 
This is very negative news for Europe and for the fate of the Euro currency. After all, the meeting did not come to any decisions that are fundamental to the existence of the European Alliance itself. 

Before Friday's profit-taking, when EURUSD started to pull back up, Forex continued to sell the pair on the sly in response to this news. Similarly, Italian government debt spreads tend to expand. 
The Italian government has very little choice. The pandemic crisis continues to have an impact, and Italians have not yet developed clear plans to leave the European Union, or establish a new Italian currency. 
In the medium term, the Italian government can find money through fiscal tightening and measures by the European Central Bank as part of the purchase of PEPP. In any case, clouds are gathering again over the southern EU countries. 

Unlike the United States, in Europe, politicians take a very long time to make decisions. It takes a lot of time to approve and reschedule meetings. The European car is very slow. If this continues, America may take the lead in the post-crisis recovery race.  
The crisis affected the United States no less. But unlike their European partners, they can make any decisions in a noticeably short time. 

This fundamental will be reflected in the technical picture of the EURUSD pair. This is especially clear on the monthly chart. 
Still, the best tactic is to sell the pair after growth.
 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.05.06 10:23

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: German Factory Orders and range price movement 

2020-05-06 07:00 GMT | [EUR - German Factory Orders]

  • past data is -1.2%
  • forecast data is -10.0%
  • actual data is -15.6% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - German Factory Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers.

==========

From official report:

  • "The number of new orders in manufacturing in Germany decreased significantly in March 2020 because of the coronavirus pandemic. According to provisional results of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), real (price adjusted) new orders decreased by a seasonally and calendar adjusted 15.6% in March 2020 compared with February 2020. This is the largest decline since the beginning of the time series in January 1991. Compared with March 2019, the decrease in calendar adjusted new orders amounted to 16.0%. Excluding major orders, real new orders in manufacturing (seasonally and calendar adjusted) were 15.5% lower than in the previous month."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by German Factory Orders news event

EUR/USD M5: range price movement by German Factory Orders news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:



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