Forecast and levels for EURO - page 31

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Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2019.02.17 09:24

EUR/USD - bearish ranging for direction; 1.1440 and 1.1569 are the keys for the bullish reversal (based on the article)

EUR/USD chart by Metatrader 5

  • "Heading into last Monday, given the way the Euro has traded in recent months in this low volatility environment, the expectation was for a bounce from support instead of slicing on through. The bounce on Tuesday started to look like other prior lows in recent months, but the final days of the week began to demonstrate a change in character."
  • "The fact that EURUSD is struggling to bounce after selling off and hitting support suggests that sellers are growing in number and that a breakdown of meaning could be just around the bend. As long as price on a closing basis stays below the weekly high at 11341, a neutral bias at the least will be intact."
  • "A drop below 11215, the November low, will leave behind the support we saw hold last week and have the worst levels since June 2017 in play. As discussed on numerous occasions in recent weeks, Euro volatility is very low and due for a pop. A break of key support levels may do the trick in the days ahead."
  • "All-in-all, price action is showing signs of changing from the recent norm, which should have traders on higher-than-normal alert for momentum to develop. It could be another false signal, but then again it might not, and as the saying goes, ‘chance favors the prepared mind.’"

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2019.02.21 11:11

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and Dollar Index: Markit Germany Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

2019-02-21 08:30 GMT | [EUR - German Flash Manufacturing PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - German Flash Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

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From official report :

  • "The IHS Markit Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI dropped to a 74-month low of 47.6 in February."
  • "The IHS Markit Flash Germany Composite Output Index registered a reading of 52.7 in February, up from 52.1 in January and its highest since last October."

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EUR/USD: range price movement by Markit German PMI news events

EUR/USD: range price movement by Markit German PMI news events

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Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by Markit German PMI news events

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by Markit German PMI news events

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.03.07 16:36

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and USD/CHF: European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decision

2019-03-07 12:45 GMT | [EUR - ECB Interest Rate Decision]

  • past data is 0.00%
  • forecast data is 0.00%
  • actual data is 0.00% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - ECB Interest Rate Decision] = Interest rate on the main refinancing operations that provide the bulk of liquidity to the banking system.

==========

From official report :

  • "The interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. The Governing Council now expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels at least through the end of 2019, and in any case for as long as necessary to ensure the continued sustained convergence of inflation to levels that are below, but close to, 2% over the medium term."
  • "A new series of quarterly targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO-III) will be launched, starting in September 2019 and ending in March 2021, each with a maturity of two years. These new operations will help to preserve favourable bank lending conditions and the smooth transmission of monetary policy. Under TLTRO-III, counterparties will be entitled to borrow up to 30% of the stock of eligible loans as at 28 February 2019 at a rate indexed to the interest rate on the main refinancing operations over the life of each operation. Like the outstanding TLTRO programme, TLTRO-III will feature built-in incentives for credit conditions to remain favourable. Further details on the precise terms of TLTRO-III will be communicated in due course."

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EUR/USD: range price movement by ECB Interest Rate Decision news events

EUR/USD: range price movement by ECB Interest Rate Decision news events

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USD/CHF: range price movement by ECB Interest Rate Decision news events

USD/CHF: range price movement by ECB Interest Rate Decision news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
109183
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.03.09 13:24

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar IndexEUR/USD and USD/JPYNon-Farm Payrolls

2019-03-08 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

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From official report :

  • "Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in February (+20,000), and the unemployment rate declined to 3.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment in professional and business services, health care, and wholesale trade continued to trend up, while construction employment decreased."

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Dollar Index H1: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

Dollar Index H1: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

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EUR/USD H1: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

EUR/USD H1: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

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USD/JPY H1: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

USD/JPY H1: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:


Sergey Golubev
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Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.03.10 08:23

EUR/USD - daily bearish breakdown; weekly bearish ranging; 1.1175 is the key (based on the article)

EURUSD daily chart by Metatrader 5

EURUSD weekly chart by Metatrader 5

  • "The pattern the past few months in these times of extraordinarily low volatility has been for moves in the Euro, in both directions, to look like they want to build on momentum only to reverse. We are about to find out if this latest installment of weakness can last or will those who just sold be kicking themselves as another breakdown turns out to be false."
  • "If the pattern is to change then EURUSD can't burst higher in the coming days, it can bounce around a bit, but it can't rip and take back with it the Thursday dagger down day. If only a minor bounce happens then the trend of quick reversals may be over, and a sustainable downdraft may be in the works in the days/weeks ahead."
  • "In the event of more weakness below the Jan-current underside channel line and Jul 2015 t-line, the area around 11100 will become the next important spot to watch price action, where the trend-line running lower from November 2017 intersects with a minor swing-low created during June of that same year. A decent number of support lines running through the vicinity just below, but broader trend forces and pent up volatility ready to pop may be enough to help the Euro soon slice through…"

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
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Sergey Golubev  

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.03.13 16:01

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USDUSD/CAD and NZD/USDUnited States Producer Price Index

2019-03-13 12:30 GMT | [USD - PPI]

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - PPI] = Change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers.

==========

From official report :

  • "The Producer Price Index for final demand edged up 0.1 percent in February, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices fell 0.1 percent in both January and December. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index moved up 1.9 percent for the 12 months ended in February."


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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by United States Producer Price Index news events

EUR/USD M5: range price movement by United States Producer Price Index news events

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USD/CAD M5: range price movement by United States Producer Price Index news events

USD/CAD M5: range price movement by United States Producer Price Index news events

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NZD/USD M5: range price movement by United States Producer Price Index news events

NZD/USD M5: range price movement by United States Producer Price Index news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
109183
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.03.18 09:29

EUR/USD - daily breakout with the bullish reversal; 1.1419 is the key (based on the article)

EUR/USD daily Ichimoku chart by Metatrader 5

  • "The Euro is back to testing resistance guiding it lower against he US Dollar since January 2018, a barrier reinforced by the top of a choppy channel in play over the past two months. Another rejection might open the door for the next leg in the single currency’s slow downward grind while a break higher has might set the stage for a significant medium-term trend reversal."

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The chart was made on daily timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


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