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Forecast and levels for EUR/USD - page 15

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Sergey Golubev
Moderator
100303
Sergey Golubev  

This is the situation for now - EURUSD M30 timeframe (same Brainwashing system):


The price is breaking 1.1659 support level to below for the breakdown to be continuing.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
100303
Sergey Golubev  

And this is the recent movement situation with the poit of view of BrainTrading system


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.28 11:23

EUR/USD - daily bearish breakdown (based on the article)

Daily price was bounced from1.1857 resistance level to below for the Ichimoku cloud to be crossing for the bearish reversal to be started. The price is testing support level at 1.1621 to below for the bearish breakdown to be continuing.


  • "For starters, we may very well see a bounce and retest of the neckline around the 11670-threshold. Retesting the ‘neckline’ is a fairly common occurrence and can offer traders a spot to establish (or add to) short positions. We may even see a stronger bounce develop back above resistance, but is likely to prove short-lived if the topping formation is to exert downward pressure. At this time, it will require a move above the trend-line running down off the September high and overtaking of Thursday’s sharp sell-off to bring pause to last week’s break."
  • "Looking lower, there is support not far below at the lower parallel tied to the trend-line off the September high. After this minor level of support, nothing meaningful arrives until 11429, 11366, 11298, and the 200-day MA (currently 11243, but rising). The ‘measured move target’(MMT) clocks in at ~11240. The ‘MMT’ is calculated by simply subtracting the height of the pattern (head to neckline) from the neckline. It’s a symmetry-based target."
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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After

  1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
  2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
  3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
  4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread  

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
100303
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.28 12:37

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, October 29 - November 05 (based on the article)

EUR/USD certainly felt the decision of the ECB in a week that unleashed some volatility and sent the euro tumbling down. The upcoming week features inflation and GDP data among other events. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week.


  1. German retail sales: Monday, 7:00. For the month of September, a rise of 0.5% is expected. Germany’s economy leans more towards industrial exports than internal consumption.
  2. Spanish CPI: Monday, 8:00. A small slide to 1.7% y/y is on the cards.
  3. Spanish GDP: Monday, 8:00. A growth rate of 0.8% is projected.
  4. German CPI: A similar figure is expected now.
  5. French GDP: Tuesday, 6:30. A gain of 0.5% is estimated now, a repeat of the previous quarter.
  6. French CPI: Tuesday, 7:45. The consumer spending measure is published at the same time but the CPI carries more weight.
  7. CPI: Tuesday, 10:00. Core CPI slipped to 1.1%, falling short of predictions. The exact same numbers are projected now.
  8. GDP: Tuesday, 10:00. The euro-zone economies grew by 0.6% in Q2, continuing the streak of upbeat publications. A slightly more modest growth rate of 0.5% is expected.
  9. EU Economic Forecasts: Tuesday, 10:00. The European Commission releases its updated economic forecasts three times a year. After a few upbeat publications, it will be interesting to see if the crisis in Catalonia will have any impact on the projections. Some forecasters have revised down Spain’s growth prospects, but we haven’t seen the crisis being accounted for at the euro area level.
  10. Unemployment Rate: Tuesday, 9:00. This busy time of the day also consists of the unemployment rate. After peaking above 12%, the jobless rate fell gradually and stands at 9.1% as of August. We now get the belated numbers for September. Another improvement is predicted: 9% this time.
  11. Manufacturing PMIs: Thursday morning: 8:15 for Spain, 8:45 for Italy, final French figure at 8:50, final German number at 8:55 and the final euro-zone release at 9:00.
  12. German Unemployment Change: Thursday, 8:55. Germany has seen unemployment dropping quite consistently in past years. The fall in July was quite impressive: 23,000. Another drop is likely for the month of August: 10K this time.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
100303
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.11.03 14:04

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, NZD/USD and Dollar Index: Non-Farm Payrolls

2017-11-03 12:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

  • past data is -33K
  • forecast data is 312K
  • actual data 261K n/a according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

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From official report :

  • "Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 261,000 in October, and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment in food services and drinking places increased sharply, mostly offsetting a decline in September that largely reflected the impact of Hurricanes Irma and Harvey. In October, job gains also occurred in professional and business services, manufacturing, and health care."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events


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NZD/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events


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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events


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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
100303
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.11.05 08:17

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, November 05 - November 12 (based on the article)

EUR/USD was looking for a new direction in a busy week. What’s next? The common currency faces yet another busy week with PMIs, trade balance and more. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week.


  1. Eurogroup Meetings: Monday. The finance ministers of the euro-zone convene in Brussels to discuss current matters. The crisis in Catalonia and its economic impact, rising growth and the changes in the ECB’s policy will all be on the table. Any statements regarding closer cooperation will be welcomed by the euro. The finance ministers of all the EU countries will convene on Tuesday, but the bigger decisions are taken between the euro area ministers.
  2. German Factory Orders: Monday, 7:00.We now get the figures for September where a drop of 1% is expected.
  3. Services PMIs: Monday: Spain at 8:15, Italy at 8:45, final French number at 8:50, final German figure at 8:55 and the final euro-zone number at 9:00.
  4. Sentix Investor Confidence: Monday, 9:30.Another rise is projected now, to 31.2 points.
  5. PPI: Monday, 10:00.A rise of 0.4% is forecast.
  6. German Industrial Production: Tuesday, 7:00.A drop of 0.7% is estimated now.
  7. Retail PMI: Tuesday, 9:10.
  8. Retail Sales: Tuesday, 10:00.An increase of 0.6% is on the cards.
  9. French Trade Balance: Wednesday, 7:45.A deficit of 4.7 billion is predicted.
  10. German Trade Balance: Thursday, 7:00.A surplus of 23.1 billion is forecast, larger than last time.
  11. ECB Economic Bulletin: Thursday, 9:00. Two weeks after the ECB decision, they publish the data that they had before them while making their decision. We may get a few more insights about the optimism that led to cutting back the bond-buying program to 30 billion per month and also the caution that led to leaving the door open to further bond-buys after September 2018.
  12. EU Economic Forecasts: Thursday, 10:00. The European Commission releases updated economic forecasts three times a year. Given the recent upbeat GDP figures, the EC may upgrade its forecasts. Forecasts for individual countries could focus on Spain, given the Catalan crisis.
  13. German CPI (final): Friday, 7:00.
  14. French Industrial Production: Friday, 7:45.A rise of 0.6% is projected.

Michele Manenti
512
Michele Manenti  
Our analysis on the cross EURUSD, on the day of 03/11/2017 ended the potential bearish trend cycle, the week that is about to begin should see new bullish developments with 1.15700 support, the resistance to the cross will be found in the 1.1683 area.

Victor Ziborov
2296
Victor Ziborov  

As can be seen from the chart H4 EURUSD, last week can be called a flat for the week. I assume that the overall trend will continue downward. Next week we will see the price for EURUSD 1.1570 and below.


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.11.07 10:31

EUR/USD Intra-Day FundamentalsECB President Draghi Speaks and range price movement 

2017-11-07 09:00 GMT | [EUR - ECB President Draghi Speech]

[EUR - ECB President Draghi Speech] = Opening remarks at the ECB Forum on Banking Supervision, in Frankfurt. 

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From official report :

  • "At euro area level, we currently see no signs of credit-fuelled housing bubbles, which are at the root of most serious financial crises. Since 2016, bank lending for house purchases has risen, on average, by 2.9% per year – well below the growth rates of up to 12% recorded in the run-up to the crisis. Some local pockets of risk have emerged, but both supervisors and macroprudential authorities are actively taking steps to counter them."
  • "We have also seen little evidence that negative interest rates are undermining bank profitability, an issue which has caused a lot of concern. This would pose a financial stability risk to the extent that it hinders banks from building up capital through retained earnings and makes raising market equity too expensive. It would also affect monetary transmission for the same reasons."
  • "For some banks, however, these negative effects may be larger than for others. This is where strong supervision is again crucial. As part of its SREP, ECB Banking Supervision carries out detailed, comparative assessments of banks’ business models, which feed into the ongoing supervisory dialogue between the supervisory teams and banks."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by ECB President Draghi Speech news event 


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The chart was made on M5 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 except the following indicator (free to download):


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
100303
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.11.08 07:09

EUR/USD - intra-day bearish ranging within narrow levels for direction (based on the article)

Intra-day H4 price is on narrow ranging to be below Ichimoku cloud: the price is on primary bearsh trend for the ranging within bullish reversal levet at 1.1637 and the bearish continuation support at 1.1553.


  • "On an intraday basis, we can identify an impulse wave lower. Impulse waves can make up larger impulse waves or they can be embedded in the sub-structure of a corrective wave. Regardless of the larger pattern EUR/USD is building, we can count the five wave impulse as completed. The Relative Strength Index divergence on the 4 hour chart is consistent with a fifth wave. Therefore, the higher probability move is a bounce back to 1.17."
  • "Bottom line, the higher probability EUR/USD move is a bounce higher towards 1.17. Depending on the structure higher will then begin to eliminate the continued bullish pattern or if the bearish resolution prevails."

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The chart was made on H4 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 4 except the following indicators (free to download):


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