Press review - page 623

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD Ahead of NFP (based on the article)

• "Updates to the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report may fuel the recent weakness in EUR/USD as the world’s largest economy is anticipated to add another 185K jobs in September. The Unemployment Rate is also expected to narrow to 3.8% from 3.9% per annum in August, and signs of a more robust labor market may encourage the Federal Reserve to deliver another rate-hike in 2018 as Chairman Jerome Powell notes that ‘the economy is strong, unemployment is near 50-year lows, and inflation is roughly at our 2 percent objective.’"
• "In turn, the Fed officials may continue to prepare U.S. households and businesses for higher borrowing-costs as ‘the Committee expects that further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be consistent with sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term,’ and a set of positive developments may ultimately heighten the appeal of the dollar as market participants gear up for higher U.S. interest rates. U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) increased 201K in August following a revised 147K expansion the month prior, while the jobless rate held steady at 3.9% per annum during the same period amid projections for a 3.8% print. Nevertheless, a deeper look at the report showed the Labor Force Participation Rate narrowing to 62.7% from 62.9% July, while Average Hourly Earnings unexpectedly climbed to 2.9% from 2.7% during the same period."

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The chart was made on daily timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - GBP/USD and NZD/USD: Non-Farm Payrolls

2018-10-05 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

• past data is 270K
• forecast data is 185K
• actual data is 134K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

==========

From forbes article :

• "The old adage about not judging a book by its cover probably applies to Friday’s September payrolls report. Though the headline jobs growth number slid dramatically, there may be enough to paint a relatively positive picture about the economy."
• "Most importantly, the report might push back some of the inflation fears that plagued Wall Street on Thursday. While payrolls rose a relatively muted 134,000 during the month, wages climbed only 2.8% year over year. That was down from 2.9% in August and basically in line with analysts’ expectations. Going into the report, there was a lot of concern that if wages rose faster than in August, the market might interpret that as a sign of the economy getting too hot. Judging from Friday’s data, it doesn’t look like there’s any need to turn up the air conditioning."
• "Looking deeper into the data, the government upwardly revised job growth for both July and August, meaning that combined growth in those two months is now 87,000 above the previous mark. In August, a massive 270,000 jobs were created, while July was subdued at 165,000 but up nearly 20,000 from the previous report."

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GBP/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events

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NZD/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events

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The chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

Interest Rates (adapted from the article)

While there are many factors that figure into the valuation of a currency, one of the most important factors to consider is the country’s interest rates.

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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by FOMC Fed Funds Rate news events

AUDUSD M5 : 26 pips range price movement by AUD - Cash Rate news event

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• "If we have a relatively stable geopolitical and economic situation around the world, the currency market will naturally favor a currency that is seeing a rise in interest rates and further interest rate hike expectations ahead. Still, interest rates aren’t the only factors that move a currency. Other such factors such as war, geopolitical concerns, inflation, correlations to other markets, and many other things can come into play as well."
• "When interest rates are higher, it tends to attract a lot of foreign investment. This is because money always wants to go to “where it is treated the best.” For example, if you run a huge hedge fund, you will be looking for higher yields for your clients. If country A pays 5% on a bond, while country B pays 2% on the same type of bond, then country A is the clear favorite as to where you should be investing. In order to buy that bond, or invest in that financial vehicle, you need to purchase in the host country’s currency."
  
• "Let’s say that you run a large fund out of the United Kingdom. You are instructed to put money to work somewhere, and the most natural place to put a significant amount of your money is going to be where you can find the most growth. Typically, central banks will raise interest rates if an economy is running hot. There is a bit of a timing issue here, but sometimes you may decide to go into a stock market, for which you will need to make purchases in a local currency. The reason for the higher rates is that they are worried about the economy boiling over, but at the same time there is a proclivity for stocks to go higher in that situation. Looking around the world, you decide that Germany is the place that you wish to invest as many of the German multinationals have enjoyed great export growth. In order to buy stocks on the DAX, you will need to buy euros."

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD - possible daily bearish (based on the article) 

• "The Euro is hovering near the middle of choppy range confining price action against the US Dollar for over four months, with technical positioning offering mixed signals on where prices may go from here."
• "The daily chart is inconclusive. A recovery above the 1.1514-58 zone bisecting the trading range might have been expected to open the door for upside follow-through, but confidence in such an outcome is degraded after a downside break through the same barrier failed to deliver earlier this month. That might imply that the hurdle itself may be losing significance in the minds of traders."
• "Zooming out to the weekly chart, signs of a bottom may be forming. The outlines of a jagged Head and Shoulders (H&S) bottom have appeared on a test of former range resistance as support. Confirmation on a break above the pattern's neckline at 1.1768 would imply a measured move higher that takes EUR/USD back above the 1.22 figure."

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Consumer Price Index and range price movement 

2018-10-16 02:30 GMT | [CNY - CPI]

• past data is 2.3%
• forecast data is 2.5%
• actual data is 2.5% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

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From rttnews article :

• "Consumer prices in China were up 2.5 percent on year in September, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday. That was in line with expectations and up from 2.3 percent in August."
• "The statistics bureau also said that producer prices climbed an annual 3.6 percent - exceeding forecasts for 3.5 percent and down from 4.1 percent in the previous month."

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USD/CNH M15: range price movement by China Consumer Price Index news event 

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• BrainTrend2Sig indicator from Codebase (free to download)
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Fibo Bar MT5 - indicator for MetaTrader 5

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

• BrainTrending indicators to download with template.
• Rules to trade manually
• How to install 

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD -  daily downtrend is still continuing in ranging way (based on the article)

• "The Australian Dollar has tepidly recovered to challenge trend resistance guiding it lower against its US counterpart since late January. That barrier is now in the 0.7136-0.7210 area. A daily close above that would neutralize the near-term bearish bias and initially expose the September’s swing highs in the 0.7304-15 zone."
• "Alternatively, a turn back below the October 8 low at 0.7041 sees the next significant barrier at 0.6900, the September 2015 bottom. That is closely followed by the January 2016 trough at 0.6827."
• "Shorter-term positioning favors the latter scenario. The four-hour chart reveals the appearance of negative RSI divergence on a test of inflection point resistance, hinting at ebbing upside momentum that might precede reversal. Confirmation on a break of counter-trend support is still pending however."

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The chart was made on H4 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 except the following indicator (free to download):

• Fibo Bar MT5 - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Double Smoothed Stochastic - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Stochastic Oscillator in Trading (based on the article)

• "The stochastic oscillator measures the closing price of a candlestick against the average closing price of a certain amount of candlesticks before it. For example, it shows whether this candlestick is overbought or oversold as far as the overall range of the market is concerned. This momentum indicator is not to be used in a trending market, but rather a market that has been going sideways. While there are strategies that use them with trends, that is less normal than looking at this as an opportunity to confirm or ignore support or resistance."
• "The stochastic oscillator is shown in a window at the bottom of the chart, separate from price. It has two lines which act like moving averages, the crisscross the panel. The standard situation is to see the 20 and the 80 level marked as both the overbought and oversold condition."
• "Occasionally the indicator will crisscross the lines above the 80, which of course is the overbought condition, or below the 20, which is the oversold condition. This is how most people will use stochastic oscillators, as a sign that perhaps it’s time to buy and sell based upon a resumption of what we seen over the last several candles. However, in a trend this reliability tends to disappear. It is because of this that you will often see stochastics offer more reliability when you include support and resistance."
• "Sometimes, people will use the stochastic oscillator for finding divergence. Divergence is when the momentum of an asset isn’t matching the price. For example, we could be seeing “lower highs” in the stochastic oscillator, but “higher highs” in the price window. This shows that perhaps the underlying momentum is starting to slow down. Looking at the chart below, you can see that the Euro has been rallying against the Polish zloty over the last several candlesticks, but at the same time the “highs” in the stochastic oscillator are getting lower. This suggests that perhaps the momentum is slowing down and it could lead to a selloff. This isn’t reason enough to start shorting the market, but it does give you a bit of a “heads up” as to what could happen."

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Stochastic

The beginning 

1. Stochastic Oscillator, the beginning

After 

1. Stochastic thread. 
2. How to Trade Stochastics Like the Pro's Do - video 
3. The Difference Between the Fast, Slow and Full Stochastic - video
4. Stochastic Trader thread 
5. Multi pair indicators thread
   (Multi pair MACD, Multi pair CoeffOfLine, Multi pair RSi, Multi pair Stochastic, Multi pair WPR (Williams % range), Multi pair Laguerre RSI, Multi pair Wilders DMI, Multi pair dss, and more)
6. Stochastic RSI for MT5 - the post 
7. Stochastic rsi (oma) colored or MT5 - the post:
   - RSI types: Cuttler's RSI; Ehlers' smoothed RSI; Harris' RSI; Rapid RSI; RSI; RSX; Slow RSI
   - levels: floating; quantile; fixed
8. Round price DOC indicator for MT5 - the post: Added 2 parameters : price (so we can chose the price we would like to use - in the original it is Close) and T3Original (false for Fulks/Matulich calculation which is faster then the original Tim Tillson calculation).

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Something Interesting

Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.28 14:13

This is very good EA for newbies - for the traders who are learning Stochastic indicator about how it works. EA is trading on overbought/oversold levels of Stochastic indicator with the following parameters which were coded to be inside this EA:

• the parameters of Stochastic indicator which were coded inside this EA: 5/3/3
• overbought/oversold levels to be coded in EA: 80/20

ea_Stochastic_system - expert for MetaTrader 4

• "Advisor analyzes the readings of the indicator Stochastic has, signal for buying is the intersection of the main and signal indicator lines in the oversold zone, a signal for the intersection of sales is the main indicator and signal lines in the overbought zone."

The coder proposed set file for this EA so we may use this EA on EURUSD M15 timeframe according to this set file/parameters.

I backtested EA just to see how it works - please find backtesting results and some charts with the ideas about overbought/oversold levels:

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Employment Change, Unemployment Rate and range price movement 

2018-10-18 01:30 GMT | [AUD - Employment Change]

• past data is 44.6K
• forecast data is 15.2K
• actual data is 5.6K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month.

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From official report :

• "Employment increased 5,600 to 12,636,300. Full-time employment increased 20,300 to 8,654,400 and part-time employment decreased 14,700 to 3,981,900."
• "Unemployment rate decreased by 0.3 pts to 5.0%."

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AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia Unemployment Rate news event 

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Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Vortex - indicator for MetaTrader 5

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread 

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD - bearish breakdown (based on the article)

• "EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 56.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.29 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Oct 01 when EURUSD traded near 1.15754; price has moved 0.7% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 10.4% higher than yesterday and 0.5% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 6.8% lower than yesterday and 10.5% higher from last week."
• "We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EURUSD prices may continue to fall. Positioning is more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias."

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Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Vortex - indicator for MetaTrader 5

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread 

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index and USD/CNH: China Gross Domestic Product

2018-10-19 03:00 GMT | [CNY - GDP]

• past data is 6.7%
• forecast data is 6.6%
• actual data is 6.5% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

==========

From mainichi.jp article :

• "China's economy grew 6.5 percent from a year earlier during the July-September period due in part to still robust external demand, official data showed Friday, but the pace was the slowest since 2009 amid a tit-for-tat tariff escalation with the United States. Although the headline figure was in line with the government's target of around 6.5 percent for the year, it was down from the 6.7 percent growth in gross domestic product in the second quarter of this year."
• "The latest GDP data came amid mounting fears that the world's second-biggest economy would be weighed down by an intensifying trade war with the United States, which has imposed higher tariffs on a wide range of imports from China."

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Dollar Index M15: range price movement by China Gross Domestic Product news events

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USD/CNH M15: range price movement by China Gross Domestic Product news events

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread