Press review - page 620

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Trade Balance and range price movement 

2018-08-08 04:05 GMT | [CNY - Trade Balance]

• past data is 262B
• forecast data is 229B
• actual data is 177B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the previous month.

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From econotimes article :

• "Chinese yuan trades marginally higher after trade balance data, PBOC sets yuan mid-point at 6.8313."
• "China July 2018 yuan-denominated trade balance decrease to 176.96 cny vs previous 261.88 cny."

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USD/CNH M15: range price movement by China Trade Balance news event 

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicator:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

How Non-Farm Payroll Reports Work (based on the article)

What is the Nonfarm Payroll Report?

The Nonfarm Payroll announcement is simply the US jobs report, with farm related jobs, unincorporated self-employment, nonprofit organizations, and military and intelligence agencies excluded. In other words, it’s a report of the “typical worker” in the United States. The report is released during the first Friday of every month at 8:30 AM Eastern Standard Time. It will outline the amount of jobs either added to or subtracted from the economy during the previous month. For example, if it is the first Friday of June 2018, the release coming out would be for May 2018. This gives us an idea as to how healthy the United States economy is, which of course has a major influence on the US dollar.

Unemployment Rate

The unemployment rate is part of the announcement as well, as it comes out simultaneously. The higher the unemployment rate, the weaker the economy is. This is because people won’t hire workers if the economy is slowing down. It is for this reason that a rising unemployment rate is typically bad for the US dollar. Alternately, if the unemployment rate continues to dwindle, this means that more people are working, which means that the Federal Reserve is more likely to raise interest rates.

Forex markets have changed quite drastically over the last decade or so, and although the Nonfarm Payroll report is still very important, it doesn’t hold the same importance it once did, mainly because Forex markets are starting to move on different principles. For example, we are starting to see the US dollar act as a safety currency more than anything else, with traders accepting more that the employment situation in various countries (including the US) will be somewhat fluid. Occasionally you get the anomaly of a bad or good month, so keep in mind that most traders are now starting to look at the Nonfarm Payroll report as a trend to follow, not necessarily the “be-all end-all” of indications as to which currency to go along with.

[Sergey Golubev]

Nikkei 225 - weekly ranging near bearish reversal; 23,010 is the key (based on the article)

• "The Nikkei 225’s daily chart points to a touch of technical stasis, of the sort now quite common across the equity market space. The Tokyo stock benchmark has settled into a broad range since late July at what- by recent standards- are quite elevated levels. While bulls can if they like take some comfort that the market is clearly in no hurry to take cash off the table, there is clearly little impetus to push on towards recent highs, which remain just out of reach."
• "Of course, the range will break eventually but so far the Nikkei is offering chart watchers few clues as to when that day might come, or to which side it will be. As long as mid-July’s top of 22,927 remains unthreatened on a daily-closing basis we might guess that the index is probably biased lower, but that’s only a possibility. The range is fairly broad, bounded to the downside by 22,317 and to the top by 22,830, so just playing it until it breaks offers at least some opportunity."

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The chart was made on W1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template).

[Sergey Golubev]

One Chart Explains Why You Should Own Bitcoin (based on the article)

• "One of the reasons to own Bitcoin and CCs is that they are not correlated with other assets. Investopedia defines correlation as, “A perfect positive correlation means that the correlation coefficient is exactly 1. This implies that as one security moves, either up or down, the other security moves in lockstep, in the same direction. A perfect negative correlation means that two assets move in opposite directions, while a zero correlation implies no relationship at all.”"
• "The National Bureau of Economic Analysis published a working paper this month that supports Fundstrat’s findings. It compared Bitcoin, Ripple and Ethereum to stocks, currencies, commodities and macroeconomic factors. The 25 page report did a detailed economic analysis and found that “cryptocurrency returns can be predicted by factors which are specific to cryptocurrency markets. Specifically, we determine that there is a strong time-series momentum effect and that proxies for investor attention strongly forecast cryptocurrency returns.” Their main conclusion was that “only cryptocurrency market specific factors – momentum and the proxies for investor attention – consistently explain the variations of cryptocurrency returns. This suggests, in contrast to popular explanations, that markets do not view cryptocurrencies similarly to standard asset classes.”"
• "Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have very little to no correlation to other asset classes. They could be a worthwhile investment in a turbulent market if all of them move in a downward direction. However, digital currencies are very risky so conduct very detailed due diligence."

In the upper right quarter of the chart below the analysis shows that the closest correlation between Bitcoin and other CCs (depicted as the FS CryptoFX Indexes Fundstrat developed and tracks) is in the high-teens with about half of all the comparisons in the single digits. This means that Bitcoin’s and the other CCs price movements are not tied to these other asset classes.

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Wage Price Index and range price movement 

2018-08-15 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Wage Price Index]

• past data is 0.5%
• forecast data is 0.6%
• actual data is 0.6% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Wage Price Index] = Change in the price businesses and the government pay for labor, excluding bonuses.

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From official report :

• "The trend index rose 0.5% and seasonally adjusted index rose 0.6% for Australia in the June quarter 2018."

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AUD/USD M15: range price movement by Australia Wage Price Index news event 

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• BrainTrend2Sig indicator from Codebase (free to download)
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

All about BrainTrading system for MT5: 

• BrainTrending indicators to download with template. 
• Rules to trade manually 
• How to install

[Sergey Golubev]

NZD/USD - bearish breakdown; 0.6544 is the key (based on the article)

• "The New Zealand Dollar may have scope for a corrective recovery before resuming the four-month down trend against its US counterpart. Downside momentum has stalled after prices plunged to the lowest level in close to three years, undone by the combination of a dovish RBNZ and global risk aversion."
• "As it stands, near-term support is marked by the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 0.6505. A daily close below that exposes the 61.8% level at 0.6422. Alternatively, a turn back above the 38.2% Fib at 0.6589 paves the way for a test of the 0.6688-0.6738 zone (former range floor support, falling trend resistance)."

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The chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

GOLD (XAU/USD) - global bearish reversal (based on the article)

• "Gold has plummeted more than 14% off the January highs with price registering fresh yearly lows into downtrend support this week. Today's response to technical support threatens a near-term recovery in price with momentum extremes and shifts in trader sentiment further highlighting this risk. Here are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter for Gold."
• "Gold prices are poised to close lower for a sixth consecutive week- the last four instances of such an occurrence were at the December 2016 lows (down 7-weeks), the November 2015 lows, the August 2015 lows (down 7-weeks) and the July 2010 low. In each of these instances, price advanced a minimum of 9% in the following weeks. With that in mind, momentum is still deep in oversold territory and while the broader risk is still lower - IF price is going to rebound, this would be a good spot to look."

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The chart was made on W1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template).

[Sergey Golubev]

GBP/USD - Bearish Breakdown (based on the article)

Weekly price broke Ichimoku cloud to below for the bearish reversal: the price is testing support levels at 1.2722/1.2661 for the bearish trend to be continuing.

• "GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 70.5% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.39 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Apr 20 when GBPUSD traded near 1.40482; price has moved 9.4% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 4.5% lower than yesterday and 7.3% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 1.6% lower than yesterday and 9.7% higher from last week."
• "We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long."

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Quick ZigZag plus DiNapoli - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• GMMA - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Vortex - indicator for MetaTrader 5

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After

• The main AscTrend thread is this one.
• Asctrend indicator in depth 
• ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included)
• Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: NZ Retail Trade and range price movement 

2018-08-21 23:45 GMT | [NZD - Retail Sales]

• past data is 0.3%
• forecast data is 0.4%
• actual data is 1.1% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level.

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From official report :

• "The total volume of retail sales rose 1.1 percent."
• "11 of the 15 retail industries had higher sales volumes."

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NZD/USD M15: range price movement by NZ Retail Trade news event 

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicator:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

Crypto News - Bitcoin: Top 10 In China's New Cryptocurrency Rankings (based on the article)

• "Bitcoin (BTC) significantly improved its position when the Chinese government revised its official cryptocurrency rankings. Bitcoin, which had dropped to 16th place in July, jumped to No. 10 this month making it to the top 10 list for the first time."
• "China's Center for Information Industry Development (CCID), under the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, released the second edition of its state-endorsed cryptocurrency and Blockchain ratings. The index was launched in May, with 28 projects listed in it. Five more cryptocurrencies were added to the list since then. NULS and Tezos were added in the August edition."

============

The chart was made on weekly timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Price prediction by Nearest Neighbor found by a weighted correlation coefficient - indicator for MetaTrader 5