Press review - page 618

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113479
Sergey Golubev  

USD/CNH Intra-Day FundamentalsChina Gross Domestic Product and range price movement 

2018-07-16 03:00 GMT | [CNY - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From shanghai daily article :

  • "China's economy extended its steady growth, expanding higher than expected by 6.8 percent year on year in the first half of 2018, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed yesterday."
  • "The gross domestic product rose 6.8 percent to 41.9 trillion yuan (US$6.3 trillion) in the first half from the same period of last year, the bureau said. The economic growth in the first quarter was 6.8 percent, and 6.7 percent in the second, thus maintaining a consistent growth of between 6.7 and 6.9 percent in 12 straight quarters."

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USD/CNH D1: range price movement by China Gross Domestic Product news event 

USD/CNH daily Brainwashing chart by MT5

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicator:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113479
Sergey Golubev  

AUD/USD Intra-Day FundamentalsAustralia Employment Change and range price movement 

2018-07-19 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Employment Change]

  • past data is 13.4K
  • forecast data is 16.7K
  • actual data is 50.9K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[AUD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month.

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From official report :

  • "Employment increased 50,900 to 12,573,600. Full-time employment increased 41,200 to 8,565,200 and part-time employment increased 9,700 to 4,008,400."
  • "Unemployment rate remained steady at 5.4%."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Australia Employment Change news event 

AUD/USD chart by Metatrader 5

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicator:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread
6202.0 - Labour Force, Australia, Jun 2018
  • www.abs.gov.au
JUNE KEY FIGURES JUNE KEY POINTS TREND ESTIMATES (MONTHLY CHANGE) Employment increased 26,900 to 12,562,800. Unemployment decreased 1,200 to 719,000. Unemployment rate remained steady at 5.4%. Participation rate remained steady at 65.6%. Monthly hours worked in all jobs increased 3.4 million hours (0.2%) to 1,752.0 million hours...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113479
Sergey Golubev  

Crypto News - daily rally to the possible bearish reversal; 7,579 is the key (based on the article)

Bitcoin daily price is on secondary rally within the primary bearish market condition: the price is testing 7,579 resistance level to above for the daily bullish reversal to be started.

Bitcoin daily price by Metatrader 5

  • "A strong rally over the last seven days sent Bitcoin prices firmly above the $7,000. Ethereum and XRP registered double-digit gains. Most gains came in the last forty-eight hours, following positive comments by Goldman Sachs’ incoming CEO about the digital currency."
  • "In research underway with my student Greg Giordano, we applied two econometric models to estimate Bitcoin’s intrinsic value over the last two years. The first model is the Hayes' cost production model, which estimates Bitcoin based on a number of supply or cost factors -- and places the intrinsic value of Bitcoin at $7,185.26. Still, econometric models are subject to all kinds of theoretical and empirical limitations. Investors should interpret findings with extreme caution."

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113479
Sergey Golubev  

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GBP/USD (based on the article)

GBP/USD chart by Metatrader 5

GBP/USD - "We remain neutral on GBP at current levels, mainly due to the currency’s recent heavy falls, but note that even though the UK Parliament is due to break for holiday, starting on Wednesday July 25, that a leadership challenge before the recess remains a possibility. To trigger a vote of no confidence in UK PM Theresa May, the Conservative Party’s 1922 Committee must receive 48 letters of no confidence from MPs. According to recent reports the Committee have already received a large number of votes, with one MP, Andrew Bridgen, saying that Brexit rebels are close to the required number of votes, although any leadership would probably take place after the recess."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113479
Sergey Golubev  

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Crude Oil (based on the article)

Crude Oil chart with USD/CAD correlation by MT5

Crude Oil"Crude opened the first day of trading last week with a sharp drop below $68/bbl only to seemingly find price and buyer support near $67/bbl. While the outlook appeared concerning with trade war headlines dominating terminals, news broke that Saudi Arabia, who previously increased supply to reduce price pressure for oil product users may not pump so much after all. The news that new Saudi and OPEC oil may not be flood the market helped to foster an apparent turnaround. WTI popped back above the 50-DMA on the news, which provides hope for the beleaguered Bulls. Another key development last week was the narrowed spread between front-month Brent and WTI, which had been near historic highs earlier this year with a compliant OPEC and a drill and pump-happy United States. Another factor that crude oil has been susceptible to alongside other assets is risk sentiment. While risk sentiment (basically, emotions and outlooks of traders and investors) are very volatile, they are a key driver of price action and the jump in risk aversion aligned with the drop in price on Monday."

============

The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113479
Sergey Golubev  

GBP/USD - weekly bearish reversal; 1.2957 is the key (based on the article)

GBP/USD weekly chart

  • "The latter-portion of last week saw a strong bounce develop in GBP/USD, and this came after the pair tested below a key psychological level for the first time since last September. As we wrote earlier during the week, the down-trend in the British Pound was very much in-focus as we approached a read of inflation out of the UK for the month of June. Markets were looking for inflation to perk-up to 2.6% after two consecutive months at 2.4%, but the actual print gave us a third straight month at 2.4% to further muddy the water for the Bank of England."
  • "Inflation strength is no longer as prominent, and in the wake of last week's inflation report, prices dipped below the 1.3000 level for the first time since last year. But – as we wrote shortly after, GBP/USD was still very oversold. We looked for two areas of potential resistance may that could’ve opened the door for bearish strategies. But – no resistance showed at either, and prices are now finding a bit of support on the zone that we were looking at that runs from 1.3083-1.3100."

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread
GBP/USD: The Cable Correction Continues After 1.3000 Bounce
GBP/USD: The Cable Correction Continues After 1.3000 Bounce
  • James Stanley
  • www.dailyfx.com
- The British Pound recovered in the latter-portion of last week after failing to drive through the 1.3000 level. That was the first test of the key psychological level since last year, and retail traders have been suspiciously bearish around the move, highlighting the potential for a deeper retracement before the longer-term bearish trend...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113479
Sergey Golubev  

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Consumer Price Index (CPI) and range price movement 

2018-07-25 02:30 GMT | [AUD - CPI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - CPI] = Change in the price of finished goods and services purchased by customers.

==========

From official report :

  • "rose 0.4% this quarter, compared with a rise of 0.4% in the March quarter 2018."
  • "rose 2.1% over the twelve months to the June quarter 2018, compared with a rise of 1.9% over the twelve months to the March quarter 2018."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Australia Consumer Price Index (CPI) news event 

AUDUSD chart by Metatrader 5

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5: 

8501.0 - Retail Trade, Australia, May 2018
  • www.abs.gov.au
MAY KEY FIGURES MAY KEY POINTS CURRENT PRICES The trend estimate rose 0.3% in May 2018. This follows a rise of 0.3% in April 2018 and a rise of 0.3% in March 2018. The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.4% in May 2018. This follows a rise in April 2018 of 0.5% and a relatively unchanged result (0.0%) in March 2018. In trend terms...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113479
Sergey Golubev  

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand Overseas Merchandise Trade and range price movement 

2018-07-24 23:45 GMT | [NZD - Trade Balance]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

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From rttnews article :

  • "New Zealand posted a merchandise trade deficit of NZ$113 million in June, Statistics New Zealand said on Wednesday - representing 2.3 percent on exports."
  • "The headline figure missed expectations for a surplus of NZ$200 million following the downwardly revised NZ$208 million surplus in May (originally NZ$294 million)."

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NZD/USD M1: range price movement by New Zealand Overseas Merchandise Trade news event 

NZD/USD chart by MT5

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5: 

Imports and exports | Stats NZ
  • www.stats.govt.nz
Find statistics about New Zealand's overseas trade of goods and services.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113479
Sergey Golubev  

Nikkei 225 - bullish ranging along the bearish reversal area for direction (based on the article)

Nikkei 225 chart by Metatrader 5

  • "In the bigger scheme of things, the Nikkei 225 remains in an uptrend when looking at the monthly chart below. You can see it is being supported by a rising trend line dating back to June 2016. However, its progress in 2018 so far has been rather shaky. Thus far, it has been oscillating in a range between 24,180 and 20,278. For it to make its leg move higher, it does face some obstacles ahead."
  • "Zooming in on the daily chart shows that the index is also in a near-term uptrend which began earlier this month with the formation of a hammer bullish reversal candlestick formation. Since then, the Nikkei 225 also formed a near-term rising trend line. However, the index has struggled on multiple occasions to push above the May high established at 23,042 and appears to have formed a triple top bearish reversal pattern."
  • "A break below near-term support could thus pave the way for its next leg lower and immediately ahead is the July 23rd low at 22,339. A push below that exposes the 23.6% and 14.6% Fibonacci extensions at 22,095 and 21,851 respectively. However, for a lasting reversal and one that could perhaps end up overturning the long-term uptrend from 2016, we would need to get below the June line and then the March low at 20,278."

---------------- 

The chart was made on D1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase:

Nikkei 225 Technical Analysis: Just Hanging On or Ready for Takeoff?
Nikkei 225 Technical Analysis: Just Hanging On or Ready for Takeoff?
  • David Cottle
  • www.dailyfx.com
The index remains at first glance very much where it was; a shade below this year’s overall highs but certainly holding on at a relatively elevated level. However, appearances can be deceptive. For there have been some changes to the picture and they’re quite encouraging ones for any bulls out there even if they’re hard to spot. For one thing...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113479
Sergey Golubev  

Things to Consider When Choosing a Broker (based on the article)

When looking to trade currencies, a new trader is bombarded with massive amounts of advertisements, offers, and of course noise from online forums. In this article, I will try to break down some of the most important things to consider when choosing a Forex broker. After all, the main function of a Forex brokerage is to simply allow you to place an order with the liquidity provider, and at the end of the day most function in a similar manner. However, that's not to say there aren't some things that you should pay close attention to.

Are they regulated?

Probably the most important thing to pay attention to is whether or not the Forex broker you are choosing is regulated. Beyond that, it also matters where they are regulated. Unfortunately, not all regulatory bodies are equal, and therefore some traders get sucked into less than reputable brokerages due to this reason alone.

Regulation allows the trader to feel somewhat protected, as there is a governmental agency that is paying close attention to what the Forex broker is doing. Many years ago, when Forex trading was relatively new for retail traders, there were a lot of nefarious companies out there willing to take your money. Since then, we have seen a tightening and maturation of the industry, so almost all brokerages are regulated at this point. If they are not, that is a huge red flag and they should be avoided at all costs.

Beyond that, regulation in a country like Germany or the United Kingdom is much different than regulation in a country like Belize. Some of the most stringent regulatory regimes can be found in the UK, the United States, the EU, Australia, and Japan. In short, countries with more advanced economies typically have better regulatory protections for the retail Forex trader. Importantly, some countries, such as the U.K., offer deposit protection insurance, meaning that even if your broker goes bankrupt, the government will eventually refund your account balance.

What products do they offer?

Obviously, you need to know whether the broker you're interested in offers the markets that you wish to trade. For example, if you wish to trade the CAD/JPY pair, the broker needs to offer it. Not all brokers offer all currency pairs. There have been brokerages that I have seen offering as few as 10 pairs, but I have seen other brokerages out there offering several hundred. In general, the larger brokerage firms will offer at least 25 pairs, quite often 40. Some of the more institutional based liquidity providers and brokerages can offer several hundred, giving you the opportunity to trade exotic currencies. Make sure that you can get the product you are looking for before filling out the paperwork.

ECN or dealing desk?

An Electronic Communication Network, or ECN, matches orders directly with each other, creating a fair and transparent marketplace. Dealing desk brokers, on the other hand, will look to either match orders or trade directly against you. A reputable broker will follow the guidelines and rules of the regulator and treat you fairly regardless. It may be considered heresy to say this, but my experience has shown me that it makes no difference which type of brokerage you choose, although spreads can vary greatly between these two different models. Typically, if you get an ECN broker to facilitate your order, they will charge less and spread, but charge a commission. In the end though, it's pretty much a wash as to the cost of the trade. One area that the ECN works better for is typically scalping, as it allows for quick in and out trades and you don't have to worry about any lag time at the desk. If you want to scalp, bear in mind that many brokers do not allow scalping-style trading, so be sure to check that out.

Analysis

Some brokerages offer expert analysis while some don't. It comes down to whether or not you need a little bit of extra help to form trade ideas, or if you are comfortable trading on your own. Beyond that though, there are plenty of places online, where you can find plenty of analysis for free.

Extras

Some brokerages will go beyond the usual calendar and announcements and offer plenty of extras. Sometimes those are deposit bonuses, sometimes they are webinars or even trading education. Again, all of this can be found for free online, but some brokerages have quite nice educational sections as an example. Think of it as buying a car, you can either get the stripped down version, which is generally cheaper, or you can get a more expensive model that comes with all the bells and whistles. Brokerages are much like this.

CFDs offered

Let us not forget the CFD market. Unfortunately, CFDs aren't available for trading everywhere (such as in the United States). However, most of the world does allow CFD trading, and this is something that you should pay attention to. If you have the ability to trade the currency markets, why not trade indices or crude oil? This gives you the ability to trade the world in one account, which of course has a major advantages if you understand correlation between markets. One of the major advantages that the rest of the world has over the United States is the ability to trade these markets as you don't need to go in and by an entire futures contract to trade natural gas, you can simply put up a small amount of margin.

Longevity

Much like any other business, the better you treat your customers the longer you stay alive. That being said, as a general rule you should feel bit more comfortable with a brokerage that has been around for 10 years as opposed the one that just started this year. However, if they are regulated in the proper sense and based in a strong, financially mature country, you should be okay. Make sure to read as many reviews as possible, but keep in mind that some of it has to be taken with a grain of salt as trading is emotional, and some people will negatively review brokers after losing money (which isn't the broker's fault). In general though, you can see through these negative posts, as they tend to be a bit over-the-top.

The main take away

The most important way to choose a Forex broker is to use common sense. There are a few things that I would consider about brokerages before depositing. Are they regulated? If so, where? Do they offer demo accounts? Do they have the currencies that I'm looking to trade?