Press review - page 621

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Crude Oil - Possible Daily Bullish Breakout; 75.59 is the bullish reversal key (based on the article)

Crude Oil daily Ichimoku chart by MT5

  • "Backwardation is rising again, and that’s good news for bulls. The spread between December 2018 and December 2019 has widened in favor of Dec. 18 showing a demand premium that will likely continue to support the bullish argument. The rise came after the largest stockpile drawdown of crude in the US in four weeks per weekly EIA data."
  • "Weekly EIA data showed a bigger-than-expected draw of nearly six million barrels against an expectation of two million barrels making for a bullish read on the weekly inventory report. The US’ strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) was a part of the petroleum report that showed a drawdown of 2.5 million barrels."
  • "Markets are in high demand-season in late-August, but in prior weeks the trade war rhetoric had taken over to make fears of lower global demand the running theme that markets were pricing. WTI & Brent now is only trailing the NASDAQ as the best performing global asset showing it holds a similar resilience as equities despite concerning narratives that continue to float."

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The chart was made on weekly timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Oil Rises For 5th Day on Huge Stockpile Drop
Crude Oil Price Forecast: Oil Rises For 5th Day on Huge Stockpile Drop
  • Tyler Yell, CMT
  • www.dailyfx.com
Backwardation is rising again, and that’s good news for bulls. The spread between December 2018 and December 2019 has widened in favor of Dec. 18 showing a demand premium that will likely continue to support the bullish argument. The rise came after the largest stockpile drawdown of crude in the US in four weeks per weekly EIA data. Iran...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index (DXY)USD/JPY and USD/CNH: United States Durable Goods Orders

2018-08-24 13:30 GMT | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]

  • past data is 0.8%
  • forecast data is -0.7%
  • actual data is -1.7% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods.

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From thestandard article :

  • "Orders for long-lasting U.S. factory goods fell by 1.7 percent in July, the third decrease in the past four months. The Commerce Department said today that durable goods orders _ items meant to last at least three years such as autos and appliances _ totaled US$246.9 billion last month. Much of that decline came from a steep 35.4 percent drop in orders for non-defense aircraft, a volatile category on a monthly basis."

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Dollar Index (DXY) M5: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events

Dollar Index (DXY) by Metatrader 5

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USD/JPY M5: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events

USD/JPY by Metatrader 5

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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events

USD/CNH by Metatrader 5

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread
The Fed - Meeting calendars and information
  • www.federalreserve.gov
The FOMC holds eight regularly scheduled meetings during the year and other meetings as needed. Links to policy statements and minutes are in the calendars below. The minutes of regularly scheduled meetings are released three weeks after the date of the policy decision. Committee membership changes at the first regularly scheduled meeting of...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD - daily rally to the possible bullish reversal; 1.1749 is the key (based on the article)

EUR/USD daily chart by Metatrader 5

  • "Coming into the week we were looking for digestion of recent losses to lead to an opportunity for more euro weakness shortly thereafter. Wrong. The turnaround off support near 11300 gave no signs of letting up and with it came the reclaiming of the important 11500 level. "
  • "Next week, we will be watching to see whether the aforementioned resistance levels (lines in this case) can keep a lid on continued strength, or if indeed we may have a larger trend reversal on our hands. Even if a much larger rally is to occur, keep an eye on the numerous highs in the mid to upper-11700s as this area could prove problematic on a first touch. On any immediate weakness 11500 is viewed as strong support."

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After

EUR/USD Weekly Technical Outlook: Euro Bouncing or Reversing?
EUR/USD Weekly Technical Outlook: Euro Bouncing or Reversing?
  • Paul Robinson
  • www.dailyfx.com
Coming into the week we were looking for digestion of recent losses to lead to an opportunity for more euro weakness shortly thereafter. Wrong. The turnaround off support near 11300 gave no signs of letting up and with it came the reclaiming of the important 11500 level. Next week, we’ll be watching to see whether the aforementioned resistance...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Dollar Index - daily correction to the bearish reversal; 94.59/94.36 are the keys (based on the article)

Dollar Index (DXY) by Metatrader 5

  • "The ONE Thing: Despite a supportive message at Jackson Hole, the US Dollar sold off. There are a few things that one could point to (I for one, choose China,) but regardless, the hot-handed US Economy may have outrun the pack with little gas left in the tank as speculators are holding their longest positions in a year and recent performance over the last few months has been waning. If the US Economy can not continue to outperform at this out-of-character pace, we could see a softer US Dollar ahead."
  • "As China has strengthened the Renminbi, the EUR is also staging a comeback of sorts after a modest move above the 55-DMA could trigger a move to the head-and-shoulder neckline of 1.1785 with building bullish momentum. Monday’s drop in the US Dollar showed that even constructive rhetoric from Fed governors was/ has not been enough to lift the greenback that has struggled since Trump complained about Powell not being an ‘easy money’ Fed Chairman."
  • "The US Dollar is seeing its sharpest pullback after touching technical resistance mid-month at 97. The Dollar Index has pulled back by 2.4% despite hawkish talk from Fed members. The key question on the charts will be as to whether the next move higher in US Dollar will result in a lower-high that is followed by the next big breakdown."

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After 

US Dollar Technical Analysis: Next Pullback Will Tell Traders Much
US Dollar Technical Analysis: Next Pullback Will Tell Traders Much
  • Tyler Yell, CMT
  • www.dailyfx.com
US Economy may have outrun the pack with little gas left in the tank as speculators are holding their longest positions in a year and recent performance over the last few months has been waning. If the US Economy can not continue to outperform at this out-of-character pace, we could see a softer US Dollar ahead. to a hold continues to be on...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD - daily rally to the possible bullish reversal (based on the article) 

EUR/USD - daily rally to the possible bullish reversal

  • "On Thursday, the euro finally made some headway out of the congestion it's been stuck in during the past few weeks. The breakout turns the once-viewed resistance area in the low to mid-11700s into support, and as long as price stays above the outlook is favorable for another leg higher."
  • "A break below 11700 would put price back inside the choppiness the euro just came from and at the least be a caution signal for longs, if not turn the tone outright negative. At that juncture, we would be inclined to stand aside again as market conditions turn unfavorable for momentum to develop in either direction."
  • "As long as we see support hold, expectations are for the big swing-high from June at 11852 to get tested, if not broken in the week ahead. Looking beyond 11852, the 11900/2000 zone will be targeted. We'll watch price action closely at that point for signs of momentum stalling."

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with the following custom indicators:

EUR/USD Weekly Technical Outlook: Looking for Euro Breakout to Hold
EUR/USD Weekly Technical Outlook: Looking for Euro Breakout to Hold
  • Paul Robinson
  • www.dailyfx.com
On Thursday, the euro finally made some headway out of the congestion it’s been stuck in during the past few weeks. The breakout turns the once-viewed resistance area in the low to mid-11700s into support, and as long as price stays above the outlook is favorable for another leg higher. A break below 11700 would put price back inside the...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Crypto News - Ripple Getting Ripped: bullish breakout with the secondary daily correction (based on the article)

Ripple (XRP/USD) daily price broke Ichimoku cloud to above for the good breakout with the bullish reversal: the price was bounced from the resistance level at 0.7711 to below for the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend to be started..

Ripple (XRP/USD) daily price

  • "The growth of Ripple has been astonishing over the last week. The cryptocurrency made a low of $0.25 on the 12th of September and it touched a proud $0.77 on the 23rd of September. That is a whopping 205% gain, moving from the September 12th low to its highest point yesterday."
  • "Ripple has one key-mission - to integrate its technology with large payment providers and banks. A top-ten U.S. bank, PNC, announced last week that it would utilise RippleNet for its customers’ international payments. The company’s blockchain solution, xCurrent would be used to speed up the transaction."

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

GBP/USD: daily bullish ranging along Senkou Span (based on the article)

Daily price broke Ichimoku cloud to above to be reversed to the primary bullish market condition. The price for now is on secondary ranging moving to be along Senkou Span like to be ready for the bullish trend to be continuig or to the bearish ranging to be started.

GBP/USD daily chart by Metatrader 5

  • "It's been a climactic past month of price action in the British Pound. As we walked into the final week of August, GBP/USD was continuing to hold on to the sell-off that had driven the currency for much of the prior four months. Prices had just sunk down to find support at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the Brexit-move, and this was a more than 1,500 pips away from where the pair had topped-out at in mid-April. There was little by way of positivity at the time."
  • "The first half of August was particularly brutal, when a BoE rate hike early in the month served to only hasten the declines. Sellers remained in-charge as a very uncertain future defined the outlook for the British Pound, and there was little apparent hope as Brexit negotiations drew near. We started to look at bullish setups in GBP/USD in mid-August largely on the basis of just how negative everything had become; looking for prices to pullback in the down-trend after oversold readings began to flash on both Daily and Weekly RSI readings."

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

GBP/USD: Cable Bulls Grasp on to Fibonacci for Support
GBP/USD: Cable Bulls Grasp on to Fibonacci for Support
  • James Stanley
  • www.dailyfx.com
. The support level we looked at came into play as the Friday low which held into this week before buyers pushed a bounce in the pair. At this point, GBP/USD is holding support at a key Fibonacci level of 1.3117, but this may be a trap and traders would likely want to treat this observation with extreme caution until more information can be...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

USD/JPY - Reversal to the Long-Term Bullish; 113.38 is the key (based on the article

Monthly price is on bullish breakout started: the price is breaking Senkou Span line to above to be reversed to the primary bullish market condition. 
if the price breaks 113.38 resistance level on close MN bar so the long-term bullish trend to be started, otherwise - ranging inside Ichimoku cloud waiting for direction.

USD/JPY monthly Ichimoku chart by Metatrader 5

  • "A bullish bias remains after USD/JPY broke above a three-year trendline and continues to trade strongly in a supportive market. Supportive forces include Japanese equities via the Nikkei 225 that is testing 2018 highs (just like USD/JPY,) alongside the highly correlated (40-day rolling at +0.8921) US Treasury 2yr yield that has risen from 2.58 in mid-August when USDJPY traded at 109.97 to 2.839 today, which is a rise of 25.4bps or 9.8% as the Fed is expected to be more hawkish on an overheating US Economy."
  • "Traders should also note the atrocious bid-to-cover ratio on Monday's US Treasury 2yr auction. The bid/cover of 2.44 was at the lowest percentile of the last 12 auctions. Such a weak bid-to-cover signals weak demand for front-end US Treasuries that could mean the yield is likely to move higher, and could take USD/JPY higher with it."

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The chart was made on weekly timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Toward 2018 High with Intermarket Support
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Toward 2018 High with Intermarket Support
  • Tyler Yell, CMT
  • www.dailyfx.com
arkets are helping to weaken the JPY, which is taking USD/JPY higher. Higher equities as seen in the Nikkei and higher US Treasury yields, especially on the front end are guiding USD/JPY toward the 113.39 JPY per USD 2018 high, and possibly beyond. The Fed looks set to keep on their path of tightening monetary policy as doubts remain to where...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ANZ Business Confidence and range price movement 

2018-09-26 02:00 GMT | [NZD - ANZ Business Confidence]

  • past data is -50.3
  • forecast data is n/a
  • actual data is -38.3 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - ANZ Business Confidence] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers, builders, retailers, agricultural firms, and service providers.

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From official report :

  • "Headline business confidence bounced 12 points to -38 in September, its highest level since May. Firms’ views of their own activity lifted 4 points to a net 8% of firms expecting an improvement."
  • "Employment intentions and profit expectations also lifted, but investment intentions dropped further."
  • "The retail sector remains particularly downbeat in terms of their expectations about both their own activity and profitability."

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NZD/USD: range price movement by ANZ Business Confidence news event 

NZD/USD: range price movement by ANZ Business Confidence news event

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After 

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/CNHCrude Oil and GOLD (XAU/USD): FOMC Rate and Statement

2018-09-26 19:00 GMT | [USD - Fed Interest Rate Decision]

  • past data is 2.00%
  • forecast data is 2.25%
  • actual data is 2.25% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Fed Interest Rate Decision] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

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From official report :

  • "In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 2 to 2-1/4 percent."
  • "In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments."

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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by Fed Interest Rate Decision news events

USD/CNH M5: range price movement by Fed Interest Rate Decision news events

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Crude Oil M5: range price movement by Fed Interest Rate Decision news events

Crude Oil M5: range price movement by Fed Interest Rate Decision news events

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XAU/USD M5: range price movement by Fed Interest Rate Decision news events

XAU/USD M5: range price movement by Fed Interest Rate Decision news events

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5: 

The Fed - Meeting calendars and information
  • www.federalreserve.gov
The FOMC holds eight regularly scheduled meetings during the year and other meetings as needed. Links to policy statements and minutes are in the calendars below. The minutes of regularly scheduled meetings are released three weeks after the date of the policy decision. Committee membership changes at the first regularly scheduled meeting of...