Forecast and levels for Oil - page 14

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.09.07 10:39

Crude Oil - bearish ranging; 65.41/67.63 are the key levels for the bullish reversal; 55.86 is the key level for the bearish trend to be resumed (based on the article)

Brent Crude Oil daily Ichimoku chart by Metatrader 5

  • "Recent news suggests that oil producers are attempting to increase production levels after failing to attempt to push prices higher by cutting production levels. Globally, oil producers want to see oil prices rise above $65 ppb in an effort to support profit and production cost expectations. The real issue for the nation/states that rely on oil production/sales is that the global economy may not cooperate with their expectations over the next 24+ months."
  • "Our researchers believe Crude Oil could become very volatile as price nears the apex of the Pennant/Flag formation that is setting up. This Daily chart highlights the attempted “scouting party” price rotation above the price resistance channel. The news over the past holiday weekend suggests the global economy may not see any real bump in activity over the next 12+ months and we believe this aligns with our longer-term research that Oil should target the sub $40 price level before the end of 2019 and potentially fall to levels below $30 in early 2020."

Crude Oil weekly Ichimoku chart by Metatrader 5

  • "We believe the key to all of this price rotation is the $50.50 level and what price does over the next 30 to 60+ days. There is a potential that price may attempt a brief upside move over this span of time, but the true intent of price is to move lower based on our ADL price modeling system. Therefore, we believe the downside potential is the most opportunistic for traders. The next price target based on our Fibonacci bearish price trigger level is the $45 price range."
  • "This move could take place quickly, over the next 2 to 3 weeks on a breakdown move, or over many months. Watch the $50.50 level as that is the key. If the price falls to any level below $50.50, then we could be moving towards the $45 level or even the $40 on a big move related to global economic expectations. Otherwise, expect the price to move towards the $50.50 level over the next few weeks as this support level is key to all future moves. As we wait for the next leg to start to move prices lower, pay attention to any upside price activity as that may present a very clear entry point for skilled technical traders."

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The chart was made on daily timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.09.12 08:00

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: breakdown; 55.86 is the key

2019-09-11 14:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

  • past data is -4.8M
  • forecast data is -2.7M
  • actual data is -6.9M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

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"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 6.9 million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil: range price movement by  U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news events 

Crude Oil: range price movement by U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.09.26 05:29

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: daily correction from 69.64 resistance to 61.21 support within the primary bullish

2019-09-25 14:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

  • past data is 1.1M
  • forecast data is -0.3M
  • actual data is 2.4M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

==========

"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 2.4 million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil: range price movement by  U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news events 

Crude Oil: range price movement by U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.10.09 17:18

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: daily bearish ranging with 56.13/62.73 support/resistance levels for the bearish trend to be continuing and for the bullish reversal to be started

2019-10-09 14:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

  • past data is 3.1M
  • forecast data is 1.8M
  • actual data is 2.9M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

==========

"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 2.9 million barrels from the previous week."

==========

Crude Oil: range price movement by  U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news events 

Crude Oil: range price movement by U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.10.18 08:30

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: intra-day bullish breakout; 60 is the key

2019-10-17 15:00 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

  • past data is 2.9M
  • forecast data is 2.7M
  • actual data is 9.3M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

==========

"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 9.3 million barrels from the previous week."

==========

Crude Oil: range price movement by  U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news events 

Crude Oil: range price movement by U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.10.23 19:52

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: possible daily bullish reversal; 60 psy level was broken to above

2019-10-23 14:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

  • past data is 9.3M
  • forecast data is 2.5M
  • actual data is -1.7M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

==========

"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 1.7 million barrels from the previous week."

==========

Crude Oil: range price movement by  U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news events 

Crude Oil: range price movement by U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.11.01 14:45

Intra-Day Fundamentals - NZD/USD, Brent Crude Oil and Dow Jones Index: United States Nonfarm Payrolls

2019-11-01 12:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

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From official report :

  • "Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 128,000 in October, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in food services and drinking places, social assistance, and financial activities. Within manufacturing, employment in motor vehicles and parts decreased due to strike activity. Federal government employment was down, reflecting a drop in the number of temporary jobs for the 2020 Census."

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NZD/USD: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

NZD/USD: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

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Brent Crude Oil: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

Brent Crude Oil: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

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Dow Jones Index: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

Dow Jones Index: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.11.07 05:54

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: ranging near reversal for within 59/63 s/r levels for the bullish rever sal or to the bearish trend to be continuing

2019-11-06 15:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

  • past data is 5.7M
  • forecast data is 1.9M
  • actual data is 7.9M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

==========

"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 7.9 million barrels from the previous week."

==========

Crude Oil: range price movement by  U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news events

Crude Oil: range price movement by U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:


 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.11.20 16:52

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: bear market rally to the bearish breakout; 62.55/63.62 are the keys for intra-day/daily bullish reversal

2019-11-20 15:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

  • past data is 2.2M
  • forecast data is 1.1M
  • actual data is 1.4M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

==========

"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 1.4 million barrels from the previous week."

==========

Crude Oil: range price movement by  U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news events 

Crude Oil: range price movement by U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:


 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.11.30 09:05

Crude Oil - ranging within 64.25/58.23 support/resistance levels (based on  the article)

Brent Crude Oil weekly chart by Metatrader 5

  • "Oil rose in November, normally a weak month. When oil has risen in the month of November in the past, it has risen in 10 of 13 cases in the month of December. Apparently, when oil overrides the usual November weakness, the momentum carries through into the next month. When oil has fallen in past Novembers, oil has risen in only 9 of 23 cases in December. In the average month, December has been up in 53% of all cases. I conclude that oil will rise next month but only moderately. "
  • "The monthly cycle is in an ascending mode and rises into February. The weekly cycle is falling in December offsetting some of the monthly cycle strength, so the result is likely to be a volatile trading range followed by a January-February rally. The combination of increasing seasonal strength and rising cycles will lift prices as December concludes. Oil will likely be at the $64-$65 level by the end of January."

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


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