Forecast and levels for Oil - page 8

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Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2018.02.09 06:37

Crude Oil - weekly ranging for correction (based on the article)

Weekly price is on bullish ranging within the narrow 71.25/61.99 support/resistance levels for the bullish trend to be resumed or for the secondary correction to be started.
The bearish reversal level is 51.96, and if the price breaks this level to below so the global bearish trend will be started for the Brent Crude Oil. 

Brent Crude Oil

  • "We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests Oil - US Crude prices may continue to rise. Positioning is less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed Oil - US Crude trading bias. "
  • "Traders are defined by their lack of patience in realizing a profit, which could make the historically long intuitional position in Brent an argument for more downside."

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Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After

  1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
  2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
  3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
  4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread  

Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2018.02.26 07:47

Crude Oil - weekly bullish ranging near the bearish reversal levels (based on the article)

Weekly price broke 100-SMA/200-SMA area for the good breakout with the bullish reversal. The price is on ranging within 71.25 resistance for the bullish trend to be resumed and 61.74 support for the weekly bearish reversal to be started.

Brent Crude Oil

  • "Two years ago, in February 2016, the price of oil was in the low $30 per barrel range. Predictions of doom and gloom abounded. At that time, the IEA warned that, “Unless something changes, the oil market could drown in over-supply." One third of all oil companies were at risk of bankruptcy. Economic indicators from China showed the slowest growth in 25 years, and despite multiple calls for OPEC to cut production, the organization did nothing."
  • "Fast forward two years and oil has doubled in price. It is very likely that the price of WTI will finish February somewhere above $60 per barrel . Here are three surprising outcomes of the two year gains in oil prices."
  • "Shale oil investors are still waiting to see profits. The shale oil industry has undergone a period of consolidation. Companies that did not go bankrupt have rid themselves of much waste. In general, shale companies in the U.S. have become more efficient and employed new drilling practices at lower costs. Nevertheless, all but the very largest have not been able to show a decent return on investment. This continues, despite the higher oil prices and record production in the United States."

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The chart was made on D1 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 except the following indicator (free to download):


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Sergey Golubev, 2018.03.14 11:16

Crude Oil Price Forecast: bearish ranging near bullish reversal levels (based on the article)

Daily price is on ranging near and below Senlou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart. If the price breaks 66.33 resistance to above so the bullish reversal of the daily price will be started, if not so the price will be contiuing on bearish ranging waiting for direction.

Brent Crude Oil price chart

  • "Recently, data from the EIA showed a rise in US stockpiles after excessive declines through H2 2017. Typically, a rise in stockpiles wouldn’t offer too much concern except that US production rose to a record high. Earlier this week, the EIA Drilling Productivity Report highlighted US shale production as likely to increase further in April to a record high 6.95mm bpd. This data will act as a cloud preventing further bullishness from taking over unless demand picks up mightily. Another way of seeing this fear of supply pressures is through futures spreads, which help show if traders and hedgers in the physical market see Contango where the front dated contract trades at a premium or backwardation where the front-month contract trades at a premium and often supports a broader bullish view."
  • "We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Oil - US Crude prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Oil - US Crude-bearish contrarian trading bias."

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The chart was made on daily timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


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Sergey Golubev, 2018.03.17 11:57

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Crude Oil (based on the article)

Brent Crude Oil chart

Crude Oil"The weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventory Report displayed a further reduction in refined product stockpiles that reached their lowest levels since Spring 2015. At the same time, refinery utilization is ramping up intake at a pace surpassing previous years that was enough to calm sellers who saw the first crude build in inventories at the Cushing, OK storage hub in 12 weeks. The headline data saw a 6.27 million barrel decline in gasoline inventories and a larger than expected 5.02 million increase in crude inventories. In short, while upstream continues to produce, downstream continue to buy keeping the Bulls happy. The International Energy Agency (IEA) supported the global oil market by saying shale growth is helping to balance, as opposed to drown the market. The IEA’s focus in their monthly report was the falling supply of oil from Venezuela that has cut back on high levels of relative production due to their domestic economic crisis. As such, the global oil stockpile surplus is expected to dissipate by year-end putting the oil market in a decisive deficit helping to support crude oil price further."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.


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Sergey Golubev, 2018.03.24 13:54

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Crude Oil (based on the article)

Brent Crude Oil

Crude Oil"The forecast for next week will remain at bullish, largely driven by a combination of geopolitics and technicals. It’s unlikely that the scenario around Iran will resolve anytime soon, and growing tensions around the fluid topic of trade wars will likely bring a weaker US Dollar which could, in-turn, help to push Oil prices higher. Prices appear poised to revisit the three-year highs, and just above that is an interesting point of resistance as the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 2014-2016 sell-off in Oil prices, and if we can re-engage above that level at 66.87, the door opens for a test of the psychological level at $70."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.



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Sergey Golubev, 2018.04.02 16:41

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar IndexBrent Crude Oil and EUR/USDISM United States Manufacturing PMI

2018-04-02 15:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]

  • past data is 60.8
  • forecast data is 60.1
  • actual data is 59.3 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

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From official report :

  • "Manufacturing expanded in March as the PMI® registered 59.3 percent, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the February reading of 60.8 percent. “This indicates strong growth in manufacturing for the 19th consecutive month, led by continued expansion in new orders, production activity, employment and inventories, with suppliers continuing to struggle delivering to demand,” says Fiore. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting."

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Dollar Index M1: range price movement by ISM United States Manufacturing PMI news events

Dollar Index

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Brent Crude Oil M1: range price movement by ISM United States Manufacturing PMI news events

Brent Cude Oil

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by ISM United States Manufacturing PMI news events

EURUSD

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Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

  1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
  2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
  3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
  4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread 

Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.04.04 19:44

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: intra-day bullish reversal; daily bullish ranging near bearish reversal

2017-04-04 15:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

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"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 4.6 million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil M5: bullish reversal. The price broke Ichimoku cloud to above for 67.89 resistance level to be tested for the bullish trend to be continuing,

If the price breaks 67.89 resistance level to above on M5 close bar so the bullish trend will be continuing.
If the price breaks 67.65 support level to below on M5 close bar so the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

Brent Crude Oil

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Crude Oil Daily: bullish ranging near bearish reversal. Daily price is on ranging to be near and above Ichimoku cloud for 67.49 support level to be tested for the possible bearish reversal.

Brent Crude Oil Daily MT5 chart

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Chart #1.
The chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

Chart #2.
The chart was made on D1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase:



Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2018.04.07 18:35

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Crude Oil (based on the article)

Brent Crude Oil chart by Metatrader 5

Crude Oil - "Crude oil prices came under pressure this past week as trade war fears and an overall decline in sentiment overshadowed developments on the production and inventory front. During the beginning of the week, US stocks were in the red coming out of a holiday, weighed down by the technology sector as President Donald Trump continued to attack Amazon.com. The week ahead is loaded with event risk for oil. Starting with the usual, API inventory estimates could give an idea of what’s to come on Wednesday when official EIA data crosses the wires. In addition, keep an eye out for March’s US CPI report which is also due on the same day. Headline inflation is expected to rise by the most in one year at 2.3% y/y. If the US Dollar rises on such an outcome, oil prices could fall since they are denominated in USD terms on global markets."

============

The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.04.15 10:22

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Crude Oil (based on the article)

BrentCrude Oil chart by Metatrader 5

Crude Oil - "Crude oil was at the epicenter of geopolitical risk last week due to Yemeni missiles heading for Riyadh being intercepted and US President Trump threatening a barrage of missiles toward Syria. In a change of events, the reduction of trade war threats was replaced with possible real war, which was a concoction that caused oil bulls to bid the commodity market to the highest levels since 2014 and pushed WTI Crude closer to $70/bbl. Traditionally, volatility is accompanied by downside price shocks. However, recently we’ve seen 2-month realized volatility at the highest levels of the year with price pushing to the highest levels since December 2014."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
110756
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.04.19 16:14

Crude Oil - bullish breakout (based on the article)

Brent Crude Oil by Metatrader 5

  • "OPEC and the United States seem to be sending Bullish signals to the Crude Oil market. OPEC and Russia appear to be setting the stage to keep oil cuts going despite a vanishing glut that caused them to engage the production curbs in the first place. Second, shrinking US Oil stockpiles are showing a tighter physical market per the EIA report on Wednesday that puts pressure on physical buyers to buy now and hold as the benefits of carrying the physical exceed the costs as evidenced by backwardation."
  • "These developments have led to Crude futures surging nearly 3% in New York with the price pushing closer to the $70/bbl mark for WTI and $75/bbl on Brent for June settlement. For the former, there remains a confluence of technical resistance from Fibonacci levels near the $70/bbl mark that could be seen as a place for buyers to take profits should the fundamental data develop fault lines."

============

The chart was made on daily timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


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