Forecast and levels for Crude Oil - page 10

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Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2018.07.21 17:21

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Crude Oil (based on the article)

Crude Oil chart with USD/CAD correlation by MT5

Crude Oil"Crude opened the first day of trading last week with a sharp drop below $68/bbl only to seemingly find price and buyer support near $67/bbl. While the outlook appeared concerning with trade war headlines dominating terminals, news broke that Saudi Arabia, who previously increased supply to reduce price pressure for oil product users may not pump so much after all. The news that new Saudi and OPEC oil may not be flood the market helped to foster an apparent turnaround. WTI popped back above the 50-DMA on the news, which provides hope for the beleaguered Bulls. Another key development last week was the narrowed spread between front-month Brent and WTI, which had been near historic highs earlier this year with a compliant OPEC and a drill and pump-happy United States. Another factor that crude oil has been susceptible to alongside other assets is risk sentiment. While risk sentiment (basically, emotions and outlooks of traders and investors) are very volatile, they are a key driver of price action and the jump in risk aversion aligned with the drop in price on Monday."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.


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Oil in an interesting resistance

fxstrategist007, 2018.08.23 04:07

WTI oil has rallied from the 200 day EMA (blue line) at the 64.38 level to the 55 day EMA (purple line) at the 68.00 level. Usually, when the price of an instrument makes this type of movement it stays bouncing up and down between the two moving averages. Therefore, the price may bounce to the downside from the 68.00 level due to the confluence of the moving average and the round number level. In case of a bearish bounce, the 66.27 may act as support, but a better support is at the 200 day EMA. On the other hand, if the price breaks to the upside, above the 68.00 level, its next resistance could be the 70.00 level. Above the 70.00 level, WTI oil could have the road clear to visit the peak at the 75.00 level.



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Sergey Golubev, 2018.08.23 13:10

Crude Oil - Possible Daily Bullish Breakout; 75.59 is the bullish reversal key (based on the article)

Crude Oil daily Ichimoku chart by MT5

  • "Backwardation is rising again, and that’s good news for bulls. The spread between December 2018 and December 2019 has widened in favor of Dec. 18 showing a demand premium that will likely continue to support the bullish argument. The rise came after the largest stockpile drawdown of crude in the US in four weeks per weekly EIA data."
  • "Weekly EIA data showed a bigger-than-expected draw of nearly six million barrels against an expectation of two million barrels making for a bullish read on the weekly inventory report. The US’ strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) was a part of the petroleum report that showed a drawdown of 2.5 million barrels."
  • "Markets are in high demand-season in late-August, but in prior weeks the trade war rhetoric had taken over to make fears of lower global demand the running theme that markets were pricing. WTI & Brent now is only trailing the NASDAQ as the best performing global asset showing it holds a similar resilience as equities despite concerning narratives that continue to float."

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The chart was made on weekly timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


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Sergey Golubev, 2018.09.27 07:02

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/CNHCrude Oil and GOLD (XAU/USD): FOMC Rate and Statement

2018-09-26 19:00 GMT | [USD - Fed Interest Rate Decision]

  • past data is 2.00%
  • forecast data is 2.25%
  • actual data is 2.25% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Fed Interest Rate Decision] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

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From official report :

  • "In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 2 to 2-1/4 percent."
  • "In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments."

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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by Fed Interest Rate Decision news events

USD/CNH M5: range price movement by Fed Interest Rate Decision news events

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Crude Oil M5: range price movement by Fed Interest Rate Decision news events

Crude Oil M5: range price movement by Fed Interest Rate Decision news events

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XAU/USD M5: range price movement by Fed Interest Rate Decision news events

XAU/USD M5: range price movement by Fed Interest Rate Decision news events

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5: 


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Sergey Golubev, 2018.10.04 09:25

Crude Oil and Natural Gas (based on the article)

Crude Oil by Metatrader 5

Crude Oil - "It appears the current Elliott Wave count for crude oil is wave (c) of circle ‘y’. With circle wave ‘y’ being a zigzag pattern, that means wave (c) is a terminal wave. Therefore, when this current wave finalizes, a large reversal may be at hand. The two day price chart shows some overhead supply and resistance forming near 77.31 and 80. Back in June 2012, crude oil prices were supported at 77.31. This level has subsequently broken and therefore, 77.31 may act like resistance moving forward."

Natural Gas by Metatrader 5

Natural Gas - "The bearish Elliot wave pattern we are following is that of a large complex correction that began from the 2016 price high (left side of the chart above). As the name states, this pattern is complex and may turn lower from levels just above current prices. At 3.28, wave (y) is equal in length to wave (w) so it may be a near term pivot level. Around 3.40, the blue resistance line crosses so it may provide resistance to natural gas prices too. The challenge with this wave count is the visual structure. The form of the waves are not an ideal shape of a (w)-(x)-(y) pattern."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.


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Sergey Golubev, 2018.10.29 09:50

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Crude Oil (based on the article)

Brent Crude Oil by Metatrader 5

Crude Oil - "Last week, we mentioned that for the first time in a while, spread between crude futures in the first two months (November 18 –December 18) is now showing a discount developing in the front-month contract compared to the second-month contract whereas, in early July, the premium for the front-month contract was as high as $2.57/bbl. Once again, we’ve seen a discount increase on the back of massive builds in US Crude Oil inventory to the tune of 635mln barrels. The most popular calendar spread is the December 2018-December 2019 is trading at the narrowest levels in a year when it moved from a high of a $6.85/bbl premium on the front-month contract to a premium this week as low as $0.22/bbl. The falling premium tends to indicate concerns of oversupply, or in the narrative of this month, lower demand."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.


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Sergey Golubev, 2018.11.11 12:09

Crude Oil - weekly breakdown; monthly ranging to the bearish reversal; 63.17 is the key (based on the article)

Weekly price is on bullish breakdown with the possible bearish reversal: the price is breaking 70.28 support level to below for ranging market condition to be started. The price is breaking Senkou Span A line to go to inside Ichimoku cloud for the ranging market condition.
if the price breaks key support level at 63.17 on close weekly bar so the bearish reversal will be finished and we will see the bearish market condition to be established for Brent Crude Oil in the medium-term situation.

Long-term (MN1)/medium-term (W1) analysis: watch the price to cross 63.17 support level to below for the bearish market condition to be reversed, otherwise - the price will be on the randing condition within Ichimoku cloud.

Crude Oil Weekly Ichimoku chart by Metatrader 5

  • "The long-term trend in oil is down and it has been since the pre-recession peak up near 150 in early 2008. Since then, it's been unable to move higher than that top. The direction of the line connecting that 2008 peak with the lower 2013/2014 peaks is unmistakably downward."
  • "The uptrend line connecting the low in 2016 to the 2017 low has been broken. Oil has closed below that trend line for 2 weeks in a row now -- and it's back inside the Ichimoku cloud range."
  • "It's that unrelenting selling, day after day, in October that's reversed the weekly trend and has reverted price direction back to the longer-term pattern seen on the monthly chart."

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The chart was made on weekly timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


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Sergey Golubev, 2018.11.12 07:54

Crude Oil - Will Oil Find Support Near $60? (based on the article)

Crude Oil Weekly AscTrend Ichimoku chart by Metatrader 5

  • "We believe the support near $65, although clearly broken, may eventually become resistance for a future upside price move. Our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting a new target near $52~53 and we believe this downside move in Oil is far from over at this point."
  • "The current global climate for Oil is that suppliers are pumping more and more oil into the market at a time when, historically, prices should continue to decline. One of our research tools includes the ability to identify overall bias models for each week, month or quarter. Historically, Oil is dramatically weaker in the month of November and relatively flat for the month of December."

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After 


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Sergey Golubev, 2018.11.27 16:29

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USDUSD/CNH and Crude OilCB Consumer Confidence

2018-11-27 15:00 GMT | [USD - CB Consumer Confidence]

  • past data is 137.9
  • forecast data is 136.2
  • actual data is 135.7 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CB Consumer Confidence] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed households.

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From official report :

  • "The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined in November, following an improvement in October. The Index now stands at 135.7 (1985=100), down from 137.9 in October. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – improved slightly, from 171.9 to 172.7. The Expectations Index – based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions – decreased from 115.1 last month to 111.0 this month."

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Crude Oil M5: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

Crude Oil M5: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5


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Sergey Golubev, 2018.12.12 20:20

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: intra-day bearish ranging near bullish reversal; daily bearish ranging for direction

2018-12-12 15:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

  • past data is -7.3M
  • forecast data is -3.0M
  • actual data is -1.2M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

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"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 1.2 million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil M5: bearish ranging near bullish reversal. The price broke Ichimoku cloud to below for 60.42 support level to be tested for the bearish trend to be continuing,

If the price breaks 61.05 resistance level to above on M5 close bar so the bullish reversal will be started.
If the price breaks 60.42 support level to below on M5 close bar so the bearish trend will be continuing
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

Crude Oil M5 chart by Metatrader 5

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Crude Oil Daily: bearish ranging for direction. Daily price is on ranging far below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart: the price is on bearish ranging within 57.47 support level for the bearish trend to be continuing and 63.66 resistance level for the secondary rally to be started.

Crude Oil Daily chart by Metatrader 5

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Chart #1.
The chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

Chart #2.
The chart was made on D1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase:


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