Forecast and levels for Oil - page 9

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Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2018.04.20 11:06

Oil - strong bullish daily (based on the article)

Brent Crude Oil by Metatrader 5

  • "The price of the U.S. benchmark oil, WTI, reached its highest level in three years on Thursday – nearly $69 per barrel – before retreating slightly. The European benchmark, Brent, rose to over $73 per barrel. These higher prices are largely the result of a draw down in oil stocks, meaning there is less oil in storage globally. For several years, the oil market has experienced a substantial oil glut, and this signifies a change."
  • "Both the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) have made statements to the effect that the glut is ending. This means less supply, and therefore higher prices. Oil prices have also been pushed higher by geopolitical factors such as heightened tensions in Syria, the threat of new sanctions on Iran and unrest in Venezuelan oil fields."

WTI Crude Oil by Metatrader 5

  • "There are two major decisions in the next few months that will likely set the tone for oil markets for the rest of 2018 and into 2019. The first is President Trump’s May 12 decision about recertifying the Iran nuclear deal. The President may, at that point, decide to re-impose sanctions on Iran. There are some indications that he is likely to do so, though the decision has not been made. It he does, prices should rise further."

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The chart was made on D1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase:


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Sergey Golubev, 2018.05.02 17:49

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: intra-day bearish breakdown; daily bullish ranging near bearish reversal

2017-05-02 15:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

  • past data is 2.2M
  • forecast data is 1.0M
  • actual data is 6.2M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

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"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 6.2 million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil M5: bearish breakdown. The price is testing support level at 72.37 to below for the bearish breakdown to be continuing.

If the price breaks 72.90 resistance level to above on M5 close bar so the bullish reversal will be started.
If the price breaks 72.37 support level to below on M5 close bar so the bearish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.


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Crude Oil Daily: correction to breakdown. Daily price is breaking 72.73 support level to below for the secondary correction to be continuing. By the way, the daily bearish reversal level is 66.68 so if the price breaks this level to below on close daily bar - the bearish reversal will be started, otherwise - strong bullish or the ranging bullish market codnition.


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Chart #1.
The chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

Chart #2.
The chart was made on D1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase:


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Sergey Golubev, 2018.05.12 06:35

Long Term Crude Oil (based on the article)

Brent Crude Oil by Metatrader 5

Brent Crude Oil by Metatrader 5

  • "The crude oil Elliott Wave analysis on the weekly price chart shows a bearish pivot may be occurring near current levels to retrace a significant portion of the previous two-year uptrend. On a weekly crude oil price chart, the Elliott Wave pattern we are following is that the current rise from the 2016 is a wave 4. We are showing this fourth wave as subdividing as a double zigzag pattern labeled W-X-Y. This pattern in general is a bearish pattern and suggests a deep correction may be on the horizon for crude oil prices."
  • "Dialing in to shorter time frame charts, we can see an Elliott Wave chart that is nearing its terminal point if it has not reached it already. The first one is a very bearish scenario depicted on the left side above. This shows wave (b) of Y as a sharp correction that ended on February 14 followed by an ending diagonal pattern higher. Ending diagonal patterns can appear at the end of a long trend and signals a tiring trend."
  • "Using the rules of the Elliott Wave principle, we can place a maximum price potential of this pattern at $74.52. If crude oil prices press beyond $74.52, then another pattern is at play and the diagonal is eliminated."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post together with the following indicators from CodeBase:


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Sergey Golubev, 2018.05.15 08:39

Crude Oil - daily bullish breakout; 78.50 is the key (based on the article)

Daily price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart: the price is testing the resistance level at 78.50 to above for the primary bullish trend to be continuing,

Brent Crude Oil chart by Metatrader 5

  • "Demand dynamics and supply shocks help to keep oil supported. While volatility appears set for a higher average than 2017, which is not saying much as it had the lowest realized cross-asset volatility in multiple decades there appears to be no room for gold to test crude's dominance of the market. Metals remain mixed as higher rates keep traders away from the non-yielding yellow metal while backwardation continues to support crude. Even base metals are losing their flavor on slowing demand growth in China."
  • "Last week, President Trump ordered the reinstatement of Iran sanctions: While crude outsiders may see that as the key bullish driver, the demand dynamics remain in the driver seat as supply shocks may continue to arise and help take crude toward bullish targets of $77/bbl, which marks the 61.8% retracement of the 2014/2016 range."
  • "OPEC raises their 2018 demand forecast helping to show the physical market may tighten further."

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After


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Sergey Golubev, 2018.05.27 14:30

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Crude Oil (based on the article)

Crude Oil by MT5

Crude Oil"Crude had the first weekly decline for the month of May as OPEC’s comments spooked bulls. More oil coming out of Saudi & Russia is helping to narrow a popular futures calendar spread that helped to visualize the bullish support for crude that weakened this week. Seemingly bearish rhetoric took hold of the Oil market causing the price to fall on Friday. Multiple reports came about OPEC, and their allies that are collectively known as OPEC+ as rolling back production cuts. There remains uncertainty about Venezuelan and Iranian supply that has likely supported these comments from OPEC+."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.


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Sergey Golubev, 2018.06.06 15:02

Crude Oil - possible daily correction to the bearish reversal (based on the article)

Daily price is above Ichimoku cloud for the secondary ranging within the promary bullish market condition: the price is testing support level at 73.80 for the correction to the bearish reversal to be started.

Brent Crude Oil daily chart by Metatrader 5

  • "Crude has fallen nearly 12% with the latest move lower generated from the news that the US has ‘quietly’ requested that the Saudis and other OPEC producers to hike production by some 1mm bpd. There remains little else aside from the non-verified headline. However, this makes the June 22 OPEC meeting all the more interesting."
  • "Traders are continuing to watch the US Dollar, which continues to pull-back from YTD highs of 94.60, but remains above the 26-day midpoint of 92.84."
  • "In other news, Central Asia’s largest oil producer, Kazakhstan is said to validate the view from Saudi Arabia and Russia to start scaling back the production curb program. Kazakhstan’s Energy Minister said in an interview that “the OPEC+ deal may be reconsidered toward softening” followed by “there is almost balance in the oil market.” All this points to a lack of tightness in the market that is likely concerning to bulls."

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The chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.06.21 13:22

Crude Oil - daily ranging inside Ichimoku cloud for direction (based on the article)

Daily price broke the first Senkou Span line of Ichimoku cloud for the ranging market condition: the price is ranging within 77.05 resistance level for the bullish trend to be resumed and 72.44 support level for the daily bearish reversal.

Brent Crude Oil daily chart by Metatrader 5

  • "The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will be holding its biannual meeting this week in Vienna, Austria on Friday morning. The following day it will hold a joint OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting with the petroleum exporting countries that joined in its 2016 production cut deal – Russia chief among them. Since the group began implementing production cuts in January 2017, the oil market has changed significantly. The oil glut has largely resolved, prices have risen, some countries are struggling to produce enough oil to meet their allocations and new sanctions on the Iranian oil industry threaten to take more barrels off the market in the near future."
  • "As a result, OPEC and its partners (OPEC+) are considering increasing oil production. The meeting promises to be controversial as some members want to keep prices high and production low, while others are pushing for significant increases in production to meet rising global demand. OPEC+ has three realistic options. It could (1) decide to leave production unchanged, (2) keep the overall production ceiling unchanged while allowing some members with spare capacity to exceed their country-specific numbers or (3) officially increase oil production allocations."

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The chart was made on daily timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


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Crude Oil: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news event 

Brent Crude Oil chart by Metatrader 5

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.07.09 11:31

Crude Oil - daily possibility for downside movement (based on the article

Brent Crude Oil chart by Metatrader 5

  • "Demand for Oil is tied to the economic activities throughout much of the globe.  When demand for Oil is high, one can perceive the global economy to be performing well and consumer demand for oil-based products rather high.  When demand for oil subsidies, it is usually due to economic constraints as a result of slower consumer and industrial demand.  The only time demand for oil typically skyrockets are when massive supply disruption takes place or war breaks out."
  • "Current price rotation to the upside has reached and stalled near an upper price channel and coincides with our Tesla Vibrational Theory price arcs.  We believe this could be setting up for a big downside price move in the near future.  Our interpretation of this setup is that Oil will quickly find pricing pressures near the $74-$75 level and begin to move lower."

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:


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Sergey Golubev, 2018.07.13 08:42

Crude Oil - oil/gold price ratio (based on the article

WTI Crude Oil chart by Metatrader 5

oil-gold price ratio

  • "When taking a glance at the performance of investments in stocks, currencies, and commodities -- which is compiled by the Wall Street Journal for the second quarter of 2018 -- one is struck by the fact that all of the top five performers were commodities. Lean hogs took the top honors, followed by crude oil."
  • "Crude’s position didn’t surprise me. Way back in February 2016 -- when West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was trading at $26/bbl. -- I was confident that crude oil would make a relentless climb. How could I have been so confident then, and confident now, that today’s WTI price of $69.50/bbl. will climb to $75/bbl. by year’s end?"
  • "To answer these questions, we must have a model -- a way of thinking about the problem. In this case, the starting point is Roy W. Jastram’s classic study, The Golden Constant: The English and American Experience 1560-2007. In that work, Jastram finds that gold maintains its purchasing power over long periods of time, with the prices of other commodities adapting to the price of gold."
  • "In support of this model, it is worth pointing out that a free-market economic system is an organism, and operates as such. Each organism is organized to maintain a certain “state” of homeostatis, to borrow a term from physiology. Any disturbance from the equilibrium sets in motion behavior within the organism which tends to re-establish the desired state of equilibrium. For example, the human body has a complex physiochemical equilibrium, which involves, among other things, a constant body temperature. If the equilibrium is disturbed, the body acts to restore the homeostatis or equilibrium."

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After


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