Forecast and levels for Oil - page 4

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Something Interesting in Financial Video July 2017

Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.26 16:17

Trading the Oil Price

Oil futures can make great investments and are probably one of the most actively traded derivatives on the market. Some of the benefits of investing in oil futures include:

  1. Ability to make substantial profits. Oil futures can be extremely lucrative investments. Some investors have been able to make tens of thousands of dollars with a single trade, while investing much less than would be necessary in the stock market. The price of oil can change substantially in a short period of time, so futures investors can see a sudden appreciation in their investment. In periods when the price of oil skyrockets, everyone would love to be able to purchase it at a lower price. Anyone who holds a future that allows them to do so is going to be in a good position.
  2. Liquidity. Oil futures are one of the most liquid investments because of the high volume that is traded every day. In fact, they are the most actively traded future on the market and hence the most liquid.
  3. Leverage. You can purchase oil futures on margin (in other words, you can borrow money to purchase them). The margin requirements are set by the exchanges and for oil they are often as low as 5% of the value of the investment. That means you could buy $100,000 worth of oil futures for only $5,000. This can also be very dangerous, but it is nice to at least have options.
  4. Limited supply. Oil is an irreplaceable resource. The fact that there is a finite supply is depressing for most people, but it can work to the advantage of investors who choose to invest in its futures. Other commodities futures such as corn and livestock can be replaced and their prices can be stabilized. However, as the world’s oil supply is exhausted, the price of oil will inevitably increase.
  5. Easy trading concept. Although it is a good idea to work with a broker or trader who can show you the ropes of futures investing, it is relatively easy to get started. Anyone who takes a little time to research the process can figure it out and develop a trading strategy.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.26 16:57

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: intra-day bullish breakout; daily bullish reversal to be started

2017-07-26 15:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

  • past data is -4.7M
  • forecast data is -3.3M
  • actual data is -7.2M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

==========

"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 7.2 million barrels from the previous week."

 ==========

Crude Oil M5: bullish breakout. The price was bounced from 50.22 support level to above to be crossed with 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal levels fror the primary bullish market condition.

If the price breaks 51.03 resistance level to above on M5 close bar so the bullish trend will be continuing.
If the price breaks 100 SMA/200 SMA support at 50.50 to below on M5 close bar so the bearish reversal will be started.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.


==========

Crude Oil Daily: bullish reversal. The price is located inside Ichimoku cloud in the ranging area of the chart by testing resistance level at 50.89 to above on daily close bar for the daily price to be reversed to the primary bullish market condition.



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.26 20:38

Brent Crude Oil - intra-day bullish breakout; 51.13 level is the key (based on the article)

Price on H4 chart is above 100 SMA/200 SMA in the bullish area of the chart: the price is breaking 51.13 resistance level to above for the ullish trend to be continuing.


  • "Like a snowball rolling downhill, the Crude Oil market is beginning to gain valid arguments for a Bullish breakout. Recently, we’ve focused on the export (as opposed to production) curbs that have been agreed to in St. Petersburg by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. On Wednesday, we saw Oil climb still further on tangible proof that the supply glut is shrinking through a drop in crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories with overall petroleum inventories in the US sitting at their lowest levels since early 2016 per Bloomberg."
  • "The headline EIA print showed a decline of 7.2m barrels last week in US crude stockpiles, which was nearly double the expected decline. Naturally, this market remains demand heavy, which is playing well this time of year, but the DOE data showing a running 4-week average of total petroleum products supplied high 21.2m barrels per day, which was the highest supply level seen since early 2008. You could argue that given the draw in stockpiles, that is a rather bullish development in showing that demand is hitting record highs too, and I would favor that argument as well, but demand will need to keep pace with supply if this recovery in price is to have legs."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.29 08:34

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Brent Crude Oil (based on the article)


Brent Crude Oil - "You know how in some weeks, everything goes well? This week was a week like no other for Crude Bulls as trading started with news out of St. Petersburg that OPEC had reached a further agreement to cut exports from Saudi Arabia (the de-facto head of OPEC), the U.A.E. and Kuwait. Saudi also said they would look to ‘forcefully demand participation’ of compliance to the production curb deal that has been extended to March 2018. After briefly punching below Friday’s low on Monday morning, Crude Oil closed the trading day higher consecutively for the rest of the week until settling near $50/bbl. The total gain was nearly 9% on the week and the environment and sentiment picture (more below) seem to point to more gains to come. What a difference a week can make!"


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.03 09:09

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: ranging bullish breakout; daily bullish reversal

2017-08-02 15:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

  • past data is -7.2M
  • forecast data is -3.2M
  • actual data is -1.5M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

==========

"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 1.5 million barrels from the previous week."

 ==========

Crude Oil M5: ranging bullish breakout. The price broke 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal levels for the primary bullish market condition. For now, the price is on ranging within s/r levels waiting for the direction of the bullish trend to be resumed or 

If the price breaks 52.38 resistance level to above on M5 close bar so the bullish trend will be resumed.
If the price breaks 51.86 to below on M5 close bar so the bearish reversal will be started.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.


==========

Crude Oil Daily: ranging bullish reversal. The price broke Ichimoku cloud to above to be reversed to the primary bullish market condition. Ascending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to aove together with 52.91 resistance level for the bullish trend to be resumed.



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.09 17:14

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: intra-day bullish ranging near 200 SMA reversal; daily bullish ranging within narrow levels; 52.91 is the key

2017-08-09 15:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

  • past data is -1.5M
  • forecast data is -2.6M
  • actual data is -6.5M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

==========

"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 6.5 million barrels from the previous week."

 ==========

Crude Oil M5: bounced from 200-SMA to above. The price was testing 200 SMA level together with 52.01 support to below for the bearish reversal but it was bounced from those levels to above for the bullish ranging near 200 SMA after that.

If M5 price breaks 52.66 resistance level to above on close bar so the bullish trend will be resumed.
If the price breaks 52.01 support level to below on close M5 bar so the bearish reversal will be started.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.


==========

Crude Oil Daily: ranging bullish reversal. The price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart: price is on narrow ranging within 52.91 resistance and 50.86 support levels waiting for the direction of the strong trend to be started,



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.09 18:27

Brent Crude Oil - daily bullish reversal with 52.91 key resistance (based on the article)

Price on the daily chart is breaking 200 SMA to be reversed to the primary bullish market condition with 52.91 resistance level to be crossed to above for the bullish trend to be started.


  • "Crude oil prices have been range bound for the past year between $39 and $55. The model we are following suggests continued consolidation between these two price points over the coming months."
  • "This triangle pattern is valid so long as this current rise is contained under the 2017 high of $55.21 while holding above the June 2017 low of $42.08. Therefore, we are anticipating a dip to begin from slightly higher prices. This dip could work itself back towards the mid 40’s. This triangle pattern as labeled is a bullish triangle. Once the triangle pattern exhausts, we are anticipating a bullish breakout to above $55.21. Therefore, since the consolidation appears to be a pause of the previous uptrend, trend traders may want to follow a buy the dip strategy."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.16 17:32

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: intra-day ranging bearish reversal; daily correction

2017-08-16 15:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

  • past data is -6.5M
  • forecast data is -3.0M
  • actual data is -8.9M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

==========

"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 8.9M million barrels from the previous week."

 ==========

Crude Oil M5: ranging bullish reversal. The price is finally broke 100-SMA/200-SMA reversal levels for the primary bearish market condition. Price is breaking 50.61 support level to below for the bearish trend to be continuing.

If the price breaks 51.32 resistance level to above on M5 close bar so the bullish reversal will be started.
If the price breaks 50.61 to below on M5 close bar so the bearish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.


==========

Crude Oil Daily: correction. Price on the daily chart is located in the bullish area with the secondary correction: the support level at 50.01 is testing to below for the correction to be continuing, otherwise - bullish ranging within the levels.



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.23 17:20

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: intra-day bullish breakout; daily bullish reversal; 52.28 daily level is the key

2017-08-23 15:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

  • past data is -8.9M
  • forecast data is -2.1M
  • actual data is -3.3M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

==========

"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 3.3 million barrels from the previous week."

 ==========

Crude Oil M5: bullish breakout. The price is located far above 100-SMA/200-SMA reversal levels in the bullish area of the chart: price is testing ascending triangle pattern together with 52.28 resistance level to above for the bullish trend to be continuing..

If M5 price breaks 52.28 resistance level to above on close bar so the bullish trend will be continuing.
If the price breaks 51.65 support level to below on close M5 bar so the bearish reversal will be started.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.


==========

Crude Oil Daily: bullish reversal. The price is ranging within and near 100-SMA/200-SMA ranging area with the resistance level at 52.28 to be tested for the possible bullish reversal.


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.24 09:04

Brent Crude Oil - daily bullish ranging within 53.50/50.07 levels (based on the article)

Price on the daily chart is above the Ichimoku cloud for the bullish trend area to be ranging within 53.50 resistance level forthe bullish trend to be resum,ed and 50.07 support level for the bearish reversal to be started.


  • "First, the good was that US stockpiles fell for the eighth straight week on rising demand led mainly from refiners. Refiners are processing more oil than last year in the US by 60,000 bpd. Aligning with the end of the likely seasonal peak is the potential of the first Gulf Coast Hurricane, currently named Tropical Depression Harvey, to hit Texas since 2008. However, we could see a direct hit effect refiners more, which are laid across the Gulf and are a key demand point of Oil. There was a strong amount of Latin American Imports coming mainly from Venezuela as well as impressive US gasoline exports that were near 700,000 and at the highest since June. The troublesome point is that seasonality is nearing its likely cycle peak that could mean we are about to see a seasonal drop, which could lead to a stall in the aggressive draws of inventory. "
  • "As mentioned above a breakdown below last week’s low at $45.38/bbl would favor a further breakdown is upon us. However, if we can see a move above last week’s high at $49.13/bbl would be strong since not seen since the last week in July that we’re breaking above resistance from the 2017 downtrend, which could mean we’re about to see a retest of $50/bbl. If such a move is going to happen, this time of year is a good fundamental time for it to occur."


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