Forecast and levels for Crude Oil - page 11

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Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.12.20 08:39

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USDDollar Index and Crude OilFederal Funds Rate

2018-12-19 19:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]

  • past data is 2.25%
  • forecast data is 2.50%
  • actual data is 2.50% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

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From official report :

  • "Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a strong rate. Job gains have been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Household spending has continued to grow strongly, while growth of business fixed investment has moderated from its rapid pace earlier in the year. On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy remain near 2 percent. Indicators of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance."
  • "Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee judges that some further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be consistent with sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term. The Committee judges that risks to the economic outlook are roughly balanced, but will continue to monitor global economic and financial developments and assess their implications for the economic outlook."
  • "In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 2-1/4 to 2‑1/2 percent."

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EUR/USD: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

EUR/USD: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

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Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

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Crude Oil: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

Crude Oil: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
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Sergey Golubev  

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.01.17 07:35

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: daily bear market rally to the bullish reversal

2019-01-16 15:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

  • past data is -1.7M
  • forecast data is -1.4M
  • actual data is -2.7M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

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"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 2.7 million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil: range price movement by U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news events 

Crude Oil: range price movement by U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news events

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5



Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.01.18 12:17

Crude Oil - breakout to the daily bullish reversal; 62.45 is the key (based on the article)

Crude Oil daily chart by Metatrader 5

  • "You can see from this Daily Crude oil chart that price has formed a consolidated price channel between $50 and $53 ppb. This price channel aligns with a November 2018 price consolidation zone. It is our belief that any advance above $55~56 ppb, will result in a new upward price move to $64-65 ppb."
  • "Crude oil chart highlights the Fibonacci projected price zones that represent the incredibly strong resistance level currently setup in Crude. The Weekly chart shows a zone between $50~56 as a critical resistance zone. One key element of Fibonacci price theory is that price must always attempt to seek out new highs or new lows as it rotates. Thus, if this current upside move fails to establish new highs above this resistance zone, then it must move lower to attempt to establish new lows. This means the $40 price target is a very viable immediate objective."
  • "Global demand for oil, as well as global economic data, could be key to understand the future demand and price for oil. At this point, a new upper fractal top formation will generate new Fibonacci price targets to the downside."

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The chart was made on weekly timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
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Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.01.28 16:35

Crude Oil - Daily Bearish Ranging; 72.00 is the bullish reversal key (based on the article)

Brent Crude Oil daily chart by Metatrader 5

  • "Recent global news regarding Venezuela, China, and global oil supply/production have resulted in the price of Oil pausing over the past few weeks near $53 to $55 ppb. We believe the continued supply glut and uncertainty will result in oil prices falling, briefly, back below $50 ppb before any new price rally begins."
  • "Eventually, yes, oil will rally above $55 and attempt to target the $65+ price level. Yet we don’t believe that move is going to happen right now. We believe the global uncertainty; the slowing Chinese economy and the global supply glut will result in a fundamental price decrease before any momentum for an upside price move begins. Our analysis suggests a price move back below $50 ppb, likely targeting the $46~47 level, where basing may occur."

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
108436
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.02.06 09:46

Intra-Day Fundamentals - GBP/USDUSD/CNH and Crude OilISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

2019-02-05 15:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI]

  • past data is 57.6
  • forecast data is 57.2
  • actual data is 56.7 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers, excluding the manufacturing industry.

==========

From official report :

  • "Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in January for the 108th consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®."
  • "The NMI® registered 56.7 percent, which is 1.3 percentage points lower than the December reading of 58 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector, at a slower rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased to 59.7 percent, 1.5 percentage points lower than the December reading of 61.2 percent, reflecting growth for the 114th consecutive month, at a slower rate in January. The New Orders Index registered 57.7 percent, 5 percentage points lower than the reading of 62.7 percent in December. The Employment Index increased 1.2 percentage points in January to 57.8 percent from the December reading of 56.6 percent. The Prices Index increased 1.4 percentage points from the December reading of 58 percent to 59.4 percent, indicating that prices increased in January for the 20th consecutive month. According to the NMI®, 11 non-manufacturing industries reported growth. The non-manufacturing sector’s growth rate cooled off in January. Respondents are concerned about the impacts of the government shutdown but remain mostly optimistic about overall business conditions."

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GBP/USD: range price movement by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news events

GBP/USD: range price movement by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news events

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USD/CNH: range price movement by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news events

USD/CNH: range price movement by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news events

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Crude Oil: range price movement by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news events

Crude Oil: range price movement by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news events

=========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5



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