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Forecast for Q2'16 - levels for Brent Crude Oil - page 3

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Daily price broke 48.25 resistance on close daily bar: 49.44 is the target, and 53.95 level for the bullish reversal.


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.18 16:41

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event:  intra-day ranging bullish within narrow levels

2016-05-18 14:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

==========

"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 1.3 million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil M5: ranging. The price is ranging around 100 SMA/200 SMA area from 49.53 Fibo bullish level to Fibo bearish support level at 48.90.


Crude Oil H4: bullish ranging within narrow s/r levels. The price is located above 100 SMA/200 SMA area on the ranging within 49.64 resistance and 46.47 support levels.

If the price breaks 49.64 level to above so the bullish trend for intra-day price movement will be continuing.
If the price breaks 46.47 support level to below so the reversal of the price movement to the primary bearish condition will be started.
If not so the price will be moved within the channel for ranging bullish.



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Something Interesting in Forex Video May 2013

Sergey Golubev, 2013.05.27 16:57

Trading the Oil Price

Crude oil can be effected by political tensions and people's views on the economy; it is a very volatile market and can easily move 200 to 400 points a day. It is as such one of the more volatile markets out there.




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Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.25 09:25

Technical Analysis for Brent Crude Oil: key resistance level at 49.82 to be broken for the bullish trend to be continuing; 53.95 is the next target (adapted from the article)

  • "The US Dollar and Crude Oil are both higher on the day along with SPX500. Much of what happened on Tuesday appears to be fueled by a risk-on rally as even the European Stoxx 600 rose by the most in six weeks at 2.2% on ~110% of its average monthly volume."
  • "On Wednesday, the EIA inventory data and Cushing Stock will be looked to confirm recent sentiment that there are large draws on current supplies that are aligning with disruptions of supply in Nigeria to further support price toward $50/bbl. Tomorrow’s EIA numbers are expected to come in at 2.25m bbl decline in crude stockpiles. Thankfully, the disruptions in Crude from the Canadian Wildfires don’t appear to be long-lasting as Canadian oil-sands facilities that workers evacuated last week due to wildfires are being allowed to prepare for the restart."


Daily price is on primary bullish market condition located above 100-day SMA/200-day SMA reversal area: the price is on ranging within the following key narrow s/r levels:

  • 49.82 resistance level, if the price breaks this level to above so the primary bullish trend will be continuing with 53.95 as the new nearest target; and
  • 47.24 support level, if the price breaks this level to below so the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started with 40.55 level as the next bearish reversal target.

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.25 16:42

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: bullish ranging above bearish reversal

2016-05-25 14:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

==========

"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 4.2 million barrels from the previous week."

==========

Crude Oil M5: bullish ranging above bearish reversal. The price is on ranging to be above 200 period SMA within 49.65 resistance and 49.14 support levels.

If the price breaks 49.65 resistance level so the intra-day primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If the price breaks 49.14 support so the reversal of the M5 price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.


Crude Oil M5: bullish ranging above bearish reversal. The price is on ranging to be above 200 period SMA within 49.65 resistance and 49.14 support levels.

If the price breaks 49.65 resistance level so the intra-day primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If the price breaks 49.14 support so the reversal of the M5 price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

The price broke 49.14 support level to below on open M5 bar, and 48.88 support level is testing for now.
Intra-day M5 bearish reversal is going on for now.

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.01 11:03

Brent Crude Oil 4-month high at 50.83 to be testing to above for the bullish trend to be continuing (adapted from the article)


  • "WTI Crude Oil Price came within a whisper of the 2016 high on Tuesday after hitting $50.10 in mid-morning trading ahead of July Contract expiration. Regardless of recent force, the CL1 June contract has seen a May price range of ~14% (43.03-50.21) that may be slowing down but does not appear done."
  • "While looking at the Average True Range, you can see that the price of Oil has become less volatile. Implied Volatility in Crude Oil ended last week at its lowest levels since August, which may show that Bears do not see a reason to fight the four-month uptrend that could continue. Also, the highest traded options contract on Friday as per Bloomberg was December 2017 $60 calls that also show long-term bullishness."
  • "Current resistance is the confluence of the Weekly R2 Pivot, the 100% Fibonacci Expansion taken from the April Opening Range Low, and the October High. This range encompasses $50.90-51.09/bbl. Beyond there, price looks only to be targeting higher, and other hard resistance levels appear arbitrary at best though $53.34 & $60.90 do stand out as levels to watch."

Daily price is located above 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal area for the bullish market condition. The price is testing 4-month high at 50.83 for the bullish trend to be continuing. Alvernative, if the price breaks 47.56 support level to below so the secondary correction will be started up to 43.30 support level as the bearish reversal target.

  • If the price will break 50.83 resistance level so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
  • If price will break 47.56 support so the local downtrend as the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.
  • If price will break 43.30 support so we may see the reversal of the price movement to the primary bearish market condition to be started with 37.25 level as the possible target in this case.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
50.8347.56
N/A
43.30


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 43.30 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 50.83 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: bullish
TREND : daily bullish

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.02 17:40

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: bullish ranging above bearish reversal

2016-06-02 15:00 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

==========


"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 1.4 million barrels from the previous week."

==========

Crude Oil H4: bullish ranging within 4-month high at 50.83 and 10-day low at 47.56. The price is on ranging to be above 200-period SMA and 100-period SMA for the bullish market condition within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 4-month high at 50.83 located far above 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal area in the primary bullish area of the chart, and
  • 10-day low at 47.56 located near and above 200 SMA on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on intra-day chart.


If the price breaks 50.83 resistance level so the intra-day primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If the price breaks 47.56 support so the reversal of the H4 price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started (in case of daily price - the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started).

If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

Resistance
Support
50.8348.63
50.2747.56

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.08 16:49

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event:  intra-day ranging within narrow levels; daily bullish trend to 6-month high at 53.95 as a target

2016-06-08 14:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

==========

"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 3.2 million barrels from the previous week."

==========

Crude Oil M5: ranging within 52.51 resistance and 51.98 support. The price is on ranging within narrow levels located to be above 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal area for the bullish market condition.
If the price breaks 52.51 resistance on close M5 bar so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If the price breaks 51.98 support level to below on close M5 bar so the reversal of intra-day price movement to the primary bearish trend will be started on the secondary ranging way.


Crude Oil Daily: bullish trend to 6-month high at 53.95 as a target. The price is located above 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal area for the primary bullish market condition: price is breaking 51.51 resistance level to above for 6-month high at 53.95 as a nearest bullish target to re-enter.

If the price breaks 53.95 level to above so the bullish trend will be continuing with 55.54 possible target for breakout.
If the price breaks 44.60 support level to below so the reversal of the price movement to the ranging bearish condition will be started.
If not so the price will be moved within the channel for ranging bullish.



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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.15 17:08

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event:  intra-day ranging bullish within 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal area

2016-06-15 14:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

==========

"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 0.9 million barrels from the previous week."

==========

Crude Oil M5: ranging bullish. The price broke 100 SMA/200 SMA area to above to be reversed to the primary bullish market condition. The price was bounced from Fibo resistance at 49.64 for the ranging to eb started within the following support/resistance levels:

  • Fibo resistance level at 49.64 located above 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal on the primary bullish area of the chart, and
  • 50.0% Fibo support level at 49.14 located near 200 SMA on the border between the primary bullish and the primary bearish trend.


Crude Oil H4: ranging within narrow 100 SMA/200 SMA levels. The price is located within 100 SMA/200 SMA area and near above 200 SMA for the ranging bullish market condition.

If the price breaks Tuesday high at 50.02 to above so the bullish trend for intra-day price movement will be resumed.
If the price breaks 48.80 support level to below so the reversal of the price movement to the primary bearish condition will be started.
If not so the price will be moved within the channel for ranging.




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