Forecast and levels for Oil - page 16

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Sergey Golubev:

I'm preparing for buy this one
 

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Sergey Golubev, 2020.03.12 18:24

Crude Oil - long-term bearish breakdown (based on the article)

Ichimoku chart by Metatrader 5

  • "The S&P 500 energy sector (XLE -10.7%) is today's worst performer, bringing its week-to-date losses to 29% and year-to-date losses above 50%."

Ichimoku chart by Metatrader 5

  • "The basis for today's sharp selloff remains much the same as in recent sessions: concerns about potential defaults for highly leveraged companies, expectations for a coronavirus-led economic growth slowdown or downturn that will reduce demand for oil, plunging oil prices (WTI -6.1% to $30.95/bbl; Brent -8.2% to $32.83/bbl) which are a symptom of the growth concerns and the Saudi-Russia price war, a likely wave of dividend cuts, tax-loss selling activity, etc."

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The chart was made with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2020.03.18 08:39

Crude Oil - global long-term bearish; 28 is the key for the bearish breakdown to be continuing (based on the article)

Brent Crude Oil AscTrend/Ichimoku chart by Metatrader 5

  • "Crude oil prices steadied in Asia Pacific trade on Wednesday having fallen to four-year lows in the previous session as investors continued to fret the effects of coronavirus on economic performance and, therefore, demand for energy. A fall in US stockpiles reported by the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday may have provided some support to the market but between coronavirus and the price war between major producers Russia and Saudi Arabia, traders were otherwise preoccupied. Official inventory levels from the Department of Energy are due later. Overall risk appetite remains extremely weak, with local stock market fortunes mixed despite the boost given to Wall Street by proposed massive fiscal support for the US economy which could include simply handing over cash to millions of Americans. This proposed experiment in so called ‘helicopter money’ would be the largest example of the practise yet seen."
  • "This month’s effective freefall has seen crude prices return to lows not previously seen since late 2003. They’re now in some danger of erasing the entire rise from the lows of December 2002 when prices were just a little below $18/barrel. It seems unlikely that any modern-day producer could long tolerate those levels, but they’ll remain in play unless we see some broad near-term recovery in risk appetite."

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Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

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The forum threads
  1. Key forum thread - Fast Fourier Transform - Cycle Extraction - the thead with FFTfiltr indicator and explanation
  2. New EA based on the !xMeter (!xMter based on Fast Fourier Transform) - the thread 
  3. Many FFT indicators with examples and explanations - the thread 
  4. Ticks Before The News - the thread with many FFT indicators and explanation how to trade

CodeBase

  1. dt_FFT - library for MetaTrader  
  2. LGLIB - Numerical Analysis Library - library for MetaTrader 4 
  3. ALGLIB - Numerical Analysis Library - library for MetaTrader 5 
  4. AFIRMA - indicator for MetaTrader 5
  5. Fourier extrapolation of price - indicator for MetaTrader 5

The articles


 

Brent Crude Oil - global long-term bearish to be continuing; 20 is the next target

Brent Grude Oil price by Metatrader 5

  • "Descending triangle pattern is going to be crossed by the close bar to below for the bearish trend to be continuing in the near-term and medium-term situation."
  • "24.70/24.54 intraday support level was already crossed for the bearish breakout."
  • "20 psy level is the next level."

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2020.03.23 09:09

Crude Oil - weekly bearish breakdown with 25 psy support level for the bearish to be continuing (based on the article)

Brent Grude Oil by Brainwashing/Ichimoku system weekly chart in Metatrader 5

  • "Crude oil prices remained close to eighteen-year lows on Monday as administrations all over the world extended lockdown procedures to try and stem the spread of the coronavirus outbreak which has already seen energy-demand forecasts cut to the bone."
  • "The price of a barrel of crude has plummeted by 60% this year, the falls made worse by a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia rooted in the two major exporters’ inability to agree about production cuts earlier this month. Current reductions from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia only run on until the end of March."
  • "Even under current conditions investors and specialists seem to have trouble visualizing sub-$20 prices for any extended period. February 2016’s lows in the $27.57 area look like reasonable near-term resistance on the monthly chart, but the sort of sentiment revival needed to bring them back into view remains elusive."

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2020.03.26 10:57

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: bearish ranging; 24.51 is the key

2020-03-25 14:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

  • past data is 2.0M
  • forecast data is 2.9M
  • actual data is 1.6M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

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"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 1.6 million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil: range price movement by  U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news events 

Crude Oil: range price movement by U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news events

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2020.04.02 12:12

Crude Oil - daily bear market rally to be started: 25 - 28 resistance level is the key for the rally to be continuing(based on the article)

Brent Crude Oil chart by Metatrader 5

WTI Crude Oil by Metatrader 5

  • "Talk last night that Russia and Saudi Arabia may declare a ceasefire in their recent output and price war was enough to send crude oil 7%-8% higher in a market dominated by sellers. While Wednesday’s percentage rise sounds impressive it pales into insignificance when compared to the 65%+ fall in crude in Q1 – over $40/bbl. - its worst quarterly performance in history. To help the oil market find a base, a truce between Russia and Saudi Arabia is essential, especially as global demand crumbles under the weight of the coronavirus pandemic. Friday’s US Labour report is now estimated by some to show millions of US workers joining the unemployment line."
  • "The daily oil chart shows little in the way of real support at the moment although the $20/bbl. area is providing a ‘big figure’ base of sorts. Small comfort can be taken from this week’s higher lows and sellers may stand to the side and wait for any news, with shorting at these extreme levels a very risk trade set-up. The March 25 high and the 20-dma cross at $25.70/bbl. and this may prove a secondary short-term target if $25.00/bbl. is taken out. In the longer-term, post-coronavirus hiatus, there is a big gap on the chart between $36.59/bbl. and $41.19/bbl. which needs filling."

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2020.04.05 10:16

Crude Oil - daily bearish ranging within 21.64/36.11 support/resistance levels (based on the article)

Brent Crude Oil daily Ichimoku chart by Metatrader 5

  • "In a world shifting towards virtual meetings, OPEC and their allies are joining the movement in hosting a virtual meeting on Monday to discuss production cuts."
  • "Oil prices put in a historically strong move this week, bouncing by as much as 50% on news that OPEC and their allies have agreed to discuss moderating production in the effort of buoying prices."
  • "Previously, Oil prices were in a hard sell-off both supply and demand concerns were pushing prices lower. The demand side of the equation still looks meager; but the supply part of the equation may get some help in the week ahead."

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The chart was made with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2020.04.08 17:27

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: ranging; 36.11 is the key for the daily bear market rally to be started

2020-04-08 15:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

  • past data is 13.8M
  • forecast data is 9.8M
  • actual data is 15.2M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

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"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 15.2 million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil: range price movement by  U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news events 

Crude Oil: range price movement by U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.04.14 08:17

Crude Oil - bearish ranging; 36.37/39.68 are the keys (based on the article)

Brent Crude Oil daily Ichimoku chart by Metatrader 5

  • "Crude failed to react the way OPEC members anticipated after widely publicized weekend reports of production cuts. Sunday night futures popped at the open and then retreated to the “just barely higher” level. And the Monday close actually took it lower. This is odd — many observers expected the reductions to take price much higher and quickly. But no."
  • "It may be the case that the OPEC masterminds are missing how little demand is present right now for their favorite product. Note also how pleasing it is to see photos of Los Angeles without fossil fuel-induced smog. Also, Beijing and other formerly polluted major cities. What will be the ultimate effect on populations who notice the difference, post-pandemic?"

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The chart was made on daily timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


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