Press review - page 642

[Sergey Golubev]

DAX Index - 12000 Break May Pave the Way for Further Losses (based on the article)

• "Despite the DAX closing lower by 1.5% for the week, the index has managed to remain in an uptrend, hugging the trendline support from the 2018 low. However, failure to hold above 12000 could see support zone tested at 11800. For the softer outlook to fade a closing break above 12300 is needed. Reminder, given market holidays on Monday, volumes will most likely be lighter thus markets may be vulnerable to overextended moves."

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, USD/CAD and GOLD: CB Consumer Confidence

2019-05-28 14:00 GMT | [USD - CB Consumer Confidence]

• past data is 129.2
• forecast data is 130.1
• actual data is 134.1 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CB Consumer Confidence] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed households.

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From official report :

• "The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® improved in May, following an increase in April. The Index now stands at 134.1 (1985=100), up from 129.2 in April. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – increased from 169.0 to 175.2. The Expectations Index – based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions – increased from 102.7 last month to 106.6 this month." 
• "Consumer Confidence posted another gain in May and is now back to levels seen last Fall when the Index was hovering near 18-year highs,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “The increase in the Present Situation Index was driven primarily by employment gains. Expectations regarding the short-term outlook for business conditions and employment improved, but consumers’ sentiment regarding their income prospects was mixed. Consumers expect the economy to continue growing at a solid pace in the short-term, and despite weak retail sales in April, these high levels of confidence suggest no significant pullback in consumer spending in the months ahead."
   

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Dollar Index H1: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

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USD/CAD H1: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

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GOLD (XAU/USD) H1: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Soft Brexit And The EU Elections (based on the article)

• "The UK’s EU election results gave Remain sentiment a clear victory (40.4%) over hard Brexit advocates (34.9%), despite the Brexit Party’s plurality win. While this outcome raises prospects for derailing Brexit, the Conservative Party still controls parliament and remains broadly pro-Brexit, more at odds over form than outcome. The election result should make Tory backbenchers more wary of selecting a hard Brexit advocate as leader, but bringing on a strong pro-Brexit supporter may be the only way to get hard Brexit supporters to sign onto a “soft” Brexit deal. As a result, Sunday’s election outcome clearly raises the potential for both a no-deal Brexit, as well as no Brexit at all."

• "GeoQuant indicators nevertheless continue to indicate that soft Brexit remains the most likely outcome. We maintain this prediction despite the fact that PM Theresa May will step down on 7 June, when GeoQuant’s Government Instability Risk measure is forecast to hit its highest level since the ill-fated snap election in June 2017. Note that we used this indicator at least four times to successfully predict that May would survive various challenges to her leadership. Now it indicates the reality that while May’s reign is over, her Tory party continues to control the government."

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The chart was made on weekly timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Price prediction by Nearest Neighbor found by a weighted correlation coefficient - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Building Approvals and range price movement 

2019-05-30 01:30 GMT | [AUD - Building Approvals]

• past data is -13.4%
• forecast data is 0.1%
• actual data is -4.7% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Building Approvals] = Change in the number of new building approvals issued.

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From official report :

• "The trend estimate for total dwellings approved fell 0.6% in April."
• "The seasonally adjusted estimate for total dwellings approved fell 4.7% in April."

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AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia Building Approvals news event 

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

GBP/USD - Bearish Breakdown; 1.26 is the key (based on the article)

• "GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 79.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 3.8 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since May 06 when GBPUSD traded near 1.31714; price has moved 4.0% lower since then. The number of trader’s net-long is 0.9% lower than yesterday and 4.1% higher from last week, while the number of trader’s net-short is 3.0% lower than yesterday and 17.7% higher from last week."

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The chart was made on weekly timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Price prediction by Nearest Neighbor found by a weighted correlation coefficient - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Manufacturing PMI and range price movement 

2019-05-31 01:00 GMT | [CNY - Manufacturing PMI]

• past data is 50.1
• forecast data is 49.9
• actual data is 49.4 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

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From cnbc article :

• "China’s National Bureau of Statistics released official manufacturing PMI for the month of May, which fell to 49.4 from 50.1 in April. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected the indicator to drop to 49.9 in May."
• "For China, the PMI is among economic indicators that investors globally watch closely for signs of trouble amid domestic headwinds and the ongoing U.S.-China trade dispute."

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USD/CNH M1: range price movement by China Manufacturing PMI news event 

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

Crude Oil - bearish breakdown; 54.98 is the key for the bearish trend to be continuing (based on the article)

• "The impact from Trump tariffs and deteriorating US China trade relations in addition to several other downside risks to global GDP growth have sent crude oil on a 16.5 percent nosedive over the month of May – and prices could still head lower. Market sentiment, as well as oil demand and prices, threaten to deteriorate further considering the barrage of high-impact economic events and data releases next week which look to provide the latest health check on risk appetite and could further spark cross-asset volatility."
• "Recent crude oil carnage could be curbed, however, if the fundamental backdrop for global growth improves on the back of upbeat data or trade war rhetoric. Strength in the US economy may shine and inspire investor confidence if leading indicators like the ISM manufacturing and services PMI readings surprise to the upside. Although, markets are likely still digesting the looming effect from the US slapping a 5 percent tariff slapped onto all Mexican goods exports with any whiff of downward global GDP growth revisions risking more downside in oil."
  
• "According to the latest CFTC Commitment of Traders data, net oil futures positioning shows a reduction in net short positioning as the volume of commercials longs outpaced that of shorts for the last 5 weeks. The bullish bets from commercial hedgers could provide crude oil prices with a bit of buoyancy, but it is noteworthy that non-commercial speculative futures traders have grown increasingly bearish over the last month as prices spiral lower."

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The chart was made on daily timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Price prediction by Nearest Neighbor found by a weighted correlation coefficient - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision and range price movement 

2019-06-04 04:30 GMT | [AUD - Cash Rate]

• past data is 1.50%
• forecast data is 1.25%
• actual data is 1.25% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Cash Rate] = Interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries.

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From official report :

• "At its meeting today, the Board decided to lower the cash rate by 25 basis points to 1.25 per cent. The Board took this decision to support employment growth and provide greater confidence that inflation will be consistent with the medium-term target."
• "Today's decision to lower the cash rate will help make further inroads into the spare capacity in the economy. It will assist with faster progress in reducing unemployment and achieve more assured progress towards the inflation target. The Board will continue to monitor developments in the labour market closely and adjust monetary policy to support sustainable growth in the economy and the achievement of the inflation target over time."

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AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia Cash Rate news event 

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/JPY and NZD/USD: Federal Reserve System (Fed) Chair Powell Speech

2019-06-04 13:55 GMT | [USD - Fed Chair Powell Speaks]

• past data is n/a
• forecast data is n/a
• actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

[USD - Fed Chair Powell Speaks] = Speech about the Federal Reserve's policy strategy, tools, and communication practices at an event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

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From cnbc article :

• "Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank is watching current economic developments and will do what it must to keep the near-record expansion going. Financial markets have been nervous lately over an escalating trade war that has spread from China and now could include Mexico. At the same, government bond yields are behaving in a way that in the past has been a reliable recession indicator."
• "Powell has stuck to the position that the Fed remains data dependent. The most recent FOMC statement, from its May meeting, indicated that the committee is taking a patient stance toward policy changes at conditions evolve."

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EUR/USD: range price movement by Fed Chair Powell Speech news event

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USD/JPY: range price movement by Fed Chair Powell Speech news event

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NZD/USD: range price movement by Fed Chair Powell Speech news event

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• BrainTrend2Sig indicator from Codebase (free to download)
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

All about BrainTrading system for MT5: 

• BrainTrending indicators to download with template. 
• Rules to trade manually 
• How to install

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and range price movement 

2019-06-05 01:30 GMT | [AUD - GDP]

• past data is 0.2%
• forecast data is 0.4%
• actual data is 0.4% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official report :

• "The Australian economy grew by 0.4% in seasonally adjusted chain volume terms in the March quarter."
• "Government final consumption expenditure contributed 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth."

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AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia GDP news event 

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Quick ZigZag plus DiNapoli - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• GMMA - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Vortex - indicator for MetaTrader 5

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After

• The main AscTrend thread is this one.
• Asctrend indicator in depth 
• ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included)
• Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread