EUR/USD Forecast May 11-15 (based on forexcrunch article)
up to new highs, but shed the gains in a volatile week. The upcoming
week features yet another chapter in the Greek drama as well as
important GDP data . Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week
and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.
EURUSD Resistance Breaks on News (based on dailyfx article)
The EURUSD is showing signs of an early morning
breakout as prices move above today’s R4 pivot at 1.1291. The initial
price jump for the pair came on worse than expected Advanced Retail
Sales data, which was released at 0.0% relative to an expected .02%. As
this morning’s move matures, traders will continue to watch the R4
pivot, which will now act as a value of support in the event of a
further bullish advance for the EURUSD.
Alternatively, a move back inside of today’s pivot range would suggest a reversal of the EURUSD’s current price momentum.Wednesday’s
pricing range begins at the R3 pivot found at a price of 1.1252. A move
back inside of the R3 pivot, would open the possibility of a price
reversal on the day back towards values of support. This would include
the S3 support pivot, which is found at the bottom of today’s 80 pip
range at a price of 1.1172. A further decline below the S4 pivot at
1.1132 would open the market to a bearish breakout and the potential for
a broader market reversal.
EURUSD wanders down into the closing hour (based on forexlive article)
The EURUSD has wandered lower away from the resistance from above near
the 1.1391 level. This is the area where buyers should return. Of
course the end of the day may lead to more consolidation type trading,
but intraday traders who sold above, may look to the area to lighten up
and call it a day.
Aussie rises to 3-1/2 month highs
The Australian dollar rose to three-and-a-half month highs against
its U.S. counterpart on Thursday, as Wednesday's U.S. retail sales
report continued to weigh on the greenback.
CS reviews the recent data at hand and comes to the following conclusions:
"Indeed, while we still hold a 3m 1.05 target for EURUSD
(based partly on our non-consensus house view that the Fed will hike in
September), we are not adding to existing short EUR positions (now
minimal in delta terms) in our model portfolio until we have a clearer
view on how these factors will play out. Effectively, we have stood on
the sidelines on EURUSD since 8 April – it is still too early to
re-engage, in our view".
EUR/USD forecast for the week of May 18, 2015, Technical Analysis (based on fxempire article)
The EUR/USD pair broke higher during the course of the week, clearing the top of the shooting star from the previous week. Because of this, we feel that the market is going to test the 1.15 level, and once we get above there the complete trend has changed. We believe that’s getting ready to happen and we are bullish of the Euro in general, so we are buying pullbacks. Quite frankly, we think that this is a move that is telegraphing itself so obviously that almost everybody in the world is getting ready to start buying.
Goldman Sachs technical analysis says EUR/USD looking constructive: oscillators, Elliot Wave (based on forexlive article)
"EUR/USD is looking increasingly
stable/constructive as weekly and monthly oscillators are crossing
positively from the bottom of their multi-year range."
"The low (which reached 1.0485) came close enough
to satisfying a very big ABC that started at the Jul. '08 high. The
month of April formed a bullish outside/engulfing pattern. The month of
May has already made a new high. All of this suggests that there is a strong
likelihood that the market will remain stable/constructive in the
near-to-medium term time horizon."
Credit Agricole: Stay Short EUR/USD For 1.08 (based on efxnews article)
"The USD kicked off the week on a strong note, rising against all
major currencies. The EUR failed to hold gains near the cycle high of
1.15, adding to our conviction that the single currency could move lower
"We think technical factors have played an important role in the
squeeze in European yields, highlighting that rate spreads should shift
back in the USD’s favour. While the US economy has lost some
momentum at the start of 2015, we still look for the economy to grow
above trend for some time. This should help absorb excess slack, pushing
the labour market closer to NAIRU by yearend. By the same token, it
would only take monthly employment gains of 150k to get the unemployment
rate to 5.0% by yearend."
I am not exactly sure but I think that this price movement (as 64 pips for now) is based on few news events:
if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)
[EUR - German GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.