Press review - page 645

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, USD/CNH and GOLD (XAU/USD): United States Gross Domestic Product (GDP) q/q

2019-06-27 12:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]

• past data is 3.1%
• forecast data is 3.1%
• actual data is 3.1% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official report :

• "Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the first quarter of 2019 (table 1), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2018, real GDP increased 2.2 percent."

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Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by  United States Gross Domestic Product news events

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USD/CNH: range price movement by  United States Gross Domestic Product news events

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XAU/USD: range price movement by  United States Gross Domestic Product news events

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD - Forex Volatility Highlights Next Week; 1.14 is the key (based on  the article)

• "The Euro and US Dollar also look ripe for volatility next week with an update on Germany’s labor market on early Tuesday at 7:55 GMT and the release of the Institute of Supply Management’s US Manufacturing PMI shortly after at 14:00 GMT. According to the 1-week implied volatility reading of 6.28 percent, spot EUR/USD is estimated to fluctuate between 1.1280-1.1478 next week. Technical resistance posed by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the currency pair’s year-to-date trading range near the 1.14 handle, which has previously served as a major confluence level, could keep upside in spot EUR/USD at bay."
• "EUR/USD price action could be stirred further later in the week as traders react to the closely-monitored US Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) data due for release Friday at 12:30 GMT. Another surprise to the downside following last month’s NFP report will likely echo bullish conviction that appears to have developed since the start of the month. However, an upbeat US jobs report threatens to send EUR/USD swooning with potential to test support at the 1.1300 price level."
• "That being said, spot EUR/USD performance over the short-term will likely be driven largely by the market’s expectation for the Federal Reserve to make a move on rates. According to overnight swaps, rate traders are currently pricing a 25-basis point reduction in the central bank’s policy interest rate as a near-certainty with an additional 24.0 percent probability of a 50-basis point reduction in Fed’s benchmark policy rate. Consequently, upbeat US economic data risks reducing the market’s expectation that the Fed will cut rates at its next FOMC meeting and bolstering the greenback in turn."

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI and range price movement 

2019-07-01 01:45 GMT | [CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI]

• past data is 50.2
• forecast data is 50.1
• actual data is 49.4 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

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From official report :

• "Falling from 50.2 in May to 49.4 in June, the headline seasonally adjusted Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) – a composite indicator designed to provide a single-figure snapshot of operating conditions in the manufacturing economy – was below the critical 50.0 threshold for the first time in four months. The latest figure was, however, indicative of only a marginal deterioration in operating conditions."

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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by China  Caixin Manufacturing PMI news event 

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• BrainTrend2Sig indicator from Codebase (free to download)
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Fibo Bar MT5 - indicator for MetaTrader 5

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

• BrainTrending indicators to download with template.
• Rules to trade manually
• How to install 

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Cash Rate and range price movement 

2019-07-02 04:30 GMT | [AUD - Cash Rate]

• past data is 1.25%
• forecast data is 1.00%
• actual data is 1.00% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Cash Rate] = Interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries.

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From official report :

• "At its meeting today, the Board decided to lower the cash rate by 25 basis points to 1.00 per cent. This follows a similar reduction at the Board's June meeting. This easing of monetary policy will support employment growth and provide greater confidence that inflation will be consistent with the medium-term target."

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AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia  Cash Rate news event 

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Quick ZigZag plus DiNapoli - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• GMMA - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Vortex - indicator for MetaTrader 5

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After 

• The main AscTrend thread is this one. 
• Asctrend indicator in depth 
• ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included)
• Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Building Approvals and range price movement 

2019-07-03 01:30 GMT | [AUD - Building Approvals]

• past data is -3.4%
• forecast data is 0.0%
• actual data is 0.7% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Building Approvals] = Change in the number of new building approvals issued.

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From official report :

• "The trend estimate for total dwellings approved fell 0.5% in May."
• "The seasonally adjusted estimate for total dwellings approved rose 0.7% in May."

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AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia  Building Approvals news event 

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

NZD/USD - daily ranging near the bullish reversal; 0.672 is the key (based on  the article)

• "The New Zealand Dollar put in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern on a retest of support-turned-resistance in the 0.6699-0.6727 area, hinting that the upswing of mid-June lows may have topped. Initial support line in the 0.6653-73 zone, with a break below that on a daily closing basis opening the door for another challenge of the 0.6575-91 region."
• "A look at more immediate positioning on the four-hour chart warns against overextrapolation however. Prices are resting at rising trendline support defining the bounds of the latest upside foray, warning that a convincing reversal is yet to be confirmed. Indeed, a bounce from support may yet materialize, with a push above the 0.6682-85 price band putting the June high at 0.6727 back in focus."
• "On balance, this makes for conflicted direction cues and hints that traders might opt against showing strong commitment one way or another until greater clarity can be had. A break below trend support – now at 0.6645 – would begin to resolve the matter in sellers’ favor. Alternatively, a daily close above last month’s swing top would invalidate topping cues and set the stage for upward continuation."

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The chart was made with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Price prediction by Nearest Neighbor found by a weighted correlation coefficient - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Crude Oil - ranging for direction (based on the article)

• "Our researchers believe the technical reason why Crude Oil will continue lower is that price rotation has continued to support a downside price trend (Bearish) and that recent price resistance near the upper price channel has been rejected. This is a near perfect example of how the Fibonacci price theory works in real markets. The price must always attempt to establish “new price highs” or “new price lows” AT ALL TIMES."
• "After the deep price bottom in December 2018 near $42.50, oil price began an upside price move reaching just above our $66 target in late April 2019. Since then, another downside price move, which we called in our May 21 article, has driven oil prices to the $50.60 level. The current upside price move has recently retested the $60 resistance level and has pulled back to where we are today around $56 per barrel."

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/JPY - bearish triangle pattern; 106.77 is the key (based on  the article)

• "A persistent slide in US Treasury yields, waning hopes for Chinese-US trade settlement and the possibility of new US tariffs on European goods have all added to investors’ already lengthy worry list, so it’s hardly surprising that the Yen should play its hallowed fundamental role."
• "Technically USDJPY’s late-June bounce seems to have petered out at this week’s highs of 108.51 or so. Still, the pair remains above the formerly pervasive downtrend line which has marked the Yen’s strengthening since late April. With the US disrupted for the Independence Day break it might yet be premature to write off the latest Dollar rally completely."

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Crypto News - Bitcoin: ranging bullish; 13,884 is the next target (based on  the article)

• "I did a forward many year ago to a reprint of an investment classic,  How I Made $2,000,000 in the Stock Market by Nicolas Darvas. His system to ride bubbling stocks was to put a box around temporary price equilibrium points in the market action to indicate a continuation of rally or its end. He didn’t think of it like that, but that was what he was doing. Without predicting what happens next this is the way to judge what is happening, but while it is at the equilibrium it doesn’t tell the direction of the next move, until that move is underway.” 
• "So right now, it’s a way to trade this situation when the signal kicks off, but we are not able to know now whether it’s going up or down using this idea. However, that is what we want to know as the price swings 10%-20% up and down."
• "Make no mistake, this is an incredibly dangerous market. Make sure you are able to sell. Make sure your bitcoin is safe or that the custodian is bullet proof. If you are going to play this game, have a plan and stick to it. Markets don’t care about theories, they have no remorse, they do not stop. Like any captain on an uncharted sea you have to always be vigilant, take observations and soundings and be prepared to tack. You can call it 9 times out of 10 but it only takes one rock to sink you. On such a sea we are now afloat."

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The chart was made with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Price prediction by Nearest Neighbor found by a weighted correlation coefficient - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Nikkei 225 - daily bullish ranging; 21,842 is the key for the bullish trend to be resumed (based on  the article)

• "The Nikkei 225’s impressive bounce from its June lows has continued. The more cautious might point to the clear reduction in daily trading ranges seen in the past few days as evidence that the bulls are becoming less sure of themselves. That may be the case, of course. But such narrowing is often seen before major holiday breaks and the US Independence Day holiday this week may well explain it."
• "At any rate the Japanese benchmark looks comfortably enough within its daily chart up-channel. The channel base is after all a good way below the market now, at 21,340, with more immediate support likely closer to hand at June 20’s close of 21,458. That point is very close to what would be the first, 23.8% Fibonacci retracement of the overall rise since June. That comes in at 21,461. That said the index has not yet quite managed to banish the possibility of a head and shoulders top formation, even though it looks rather less likely now than it did last week. A fundamental backdrop of record Wall Street highs and the clear post-crisis nexus between lower global interest rates and higher stock markets don’t suggest that these should be bad fundamental times for the Nikkei."
• "Of course, technically speaking the bulls still have plenty of work to do if they are to completely erase the steep falls which took the index down from May’s peaks to the lows of early June."

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The chart was made on D1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase:

• Price prediction by Nearest Neighbor found by a weighted correlation coefficient - indicator for MetaTrader 5