Forecast and levels for Dollar Index - page 16

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.11.15 15:32

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, USD/JPY, GOLD (XAU/USD) and Dax Index: United States Advance Retail Sales

2019-11-15 13:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]

• past data is -0.3%
• forecast data is 0.3%
• actual data is 0.3% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

==========

From marketwatch article :

• "Retail sales increased 0.3% last month, the government said Friday, matching the forecast of economists polled by MarketWatch. The increase in sales was concentrated in just a few segments, however. If autos and gasoline are excluded, sales rose a scant 0.1%, with almost all of that gain coming from internet retailers."

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Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by United States Advance Retail Sales news events

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USD/JPY: range price movement by United States Advance Retail Sales news events

==========

XAU/USD: range price movement by United States Advance Retail Sales news events

==========

Dax Index: range price movement by United States Advance Retail Sales news events

==========

Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• SilverTrend_NRTR - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Fourier extrapolation of price - indicator for MetaTrader 5

==========

The forum threads

1. Key forum thread - Fast Fourier Transform - Cycle Extraction - the thead with FFTfiltr indicator and explanation
2. New EA based on the !xMeter (!xMter based on Fast Fourier Transform) - the thread 
3. Many FFT indicators with examples and explanations - the thread 
4. Ticks Before The News - the thread with many FFT indicators and explanation how to trade

CodeBase

1. dt_FFT - library for MetaTrader  
2. LGLIB - Numerical Analysis Library - library for MetaTrader 4 
3. ALGLIB - Numerical Analysis Library - library for MetaTrader 5 
4. AFIRMA - indicator for MetaTrader 5
   
5. Fourier extrapolation of price - indicator for MetaTrader 5

The articles

• Introduction to the Empirical Mode Decomposition Method  
  
• Building a Spectrum Analyzer  
• Analysis of the Main Characteristics of Time Series

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.11.27 15:04

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/JPY, Dollar Index (DXY) and GOLD (XAU/USD): Unites States Durable Goods Orders

2019-11-27 13:30 GMT | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]

• past data is -1.2%
• forecast data is 0.0%
• actual data is 0.6% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods.

==========

From cnbc article :

• "Orders to U.S. factories for big-ticket manufactured goods rebounded last month on a surge in demand for military aircraft. The Commerce Department says orders for durable goods — which are meant to last at least three years — rose 0.6% in October after dropping 1.4% in September. Orders for military aircraft soared 18.1%. Excluding defense, durable goods orders blipped up 0.1%."

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USD/JPY: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events

==========

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events

==========

GOLD (XAU/USD): range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:

MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Laguerre - indicator for MetaTrader 5 (as a part of Laguerre scalping system)

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.12.06 08:22

What To Expect From The November Jobs Report (based on the article)

• "The U.S. economy added a much better than expected 128,000 jobs in October, with the unemployment rate at 3.6%—near a 50-year low. But some of the recent jobs data has been confusing, CNBC points out: The latest weekly unemployment claims dropped to a seven-month low, even as recent ADP data showed private sector jobs in November grew at the slowest rate—by just 67,000—in six months."

Dollar Index: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

• "The U.S. economy added a much better than expected 128,000 jobs in October, with the unemployment rate at 3.6%—near a 50-year low. But some of the recent jobs data has been confusing, CNBC points out: The latest weekly unemployment claims dropped to a seven-month low, even as recent ADP data showed private sector jobs in November grew at the slowest rate—by just 67,000—in six months".
• "November will likely see solid job growth, with economists polled by Dow Jones forecasting 187,000 jobs added last month—one of the highest preliminary estimates this year, thanks to a temporary boost from General Motors autoworkers, who returned to work after weeks of striking for better wages".
• "The consensus on the unemployment rate is that it will remain unchanged from last month, hovering at 3.6%".
• "While the official consensus is around 180,000 jobs added, we’ll likely see tempered expectations going into tomorrow’s numbers,” predicts Mark Freeman, chief investment officer at Socorro Asset Management".

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.12.11 21:14

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index and EUR/USD: Federal Funds Rate and FOMC Statement

2019-12-11 19:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]

• past data is 1.75%
• forecast data is 1.75%
• actual data is 1.75% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

==========

From official report :

• "Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1‑1/2 to 1-3/4 percent. The Committee judges that the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate to support sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective. The Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook, including global developments and muted inflation pressures, as it assesses the appropriate path of the target range for the federal funds rate."

==========

Dollar Index: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

==========

EUR/USD: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.01.08 15:46

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, EUR/USD and USD/CNH: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (ADP) and range price movement 

2020-01-08 13:15 GMT | [USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change]

• past data is 124K
• forecast data is 160K
• actual data is 202K according to the latest press release 

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change] = Estimated change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry and government.

==========

From official report :

• "Private-sector employment increased by 202,000 from November to December, on a seasonally adjusted basis."

==========

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event

==========

EUR/USD: range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event

==========

USD/CNH: range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event

==========

Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Vortex - indicator for MetaTrader 5

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.01.28 15:00

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/JPY, Dollar Index (DXY) and GOLD (XAU/USD): Unites States Durable Goods Orders

2020-01-28 13:30 GMT | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]

• past data is -2.1%
• forecast data is 0.5%
• actual data is 2.4% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods.

==========

From fxstreet article :

• "Durable Goods Orders in the United States rose 2.4% on a monthly basis in December following November's decline of 3.1% (revised from 2%), the data published by the US Census Bureau showed on Tuesday. This reading came in better than the market expectation for an increase of 0.5%."

==========

USD/JPY: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events

==========

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events

==========

GOLD (XAU/USD): range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:

MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Laguerre - indicator for MetaTrader 5 (as a part of Laguerre scalping system)

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.02.05 16:01

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, NZD/USD and Brent Crude Oil: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (ADP) and range price movement 

2020-02-05 13:15 GMT | [USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change]

• past data is 199K
• forecast data is 157K
• actual data is 291K according to the latest press release 

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change] = Estimated change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry and government.

==========

From official report :

• "Private-sector employment increased by 291,000 from December to January, on a seasonally adjusted basis."

==========

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event

==========

NZD/USD: range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event

==========

Brent Crude Oil: range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event

==========

Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Vortex - indicator for MetaTrader 5

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.02.14 15:37

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, USD/JPY and USD/CAD: United States Retail Sales Ex Autos

2020-02-14 13:30 GMT | [USD - Core Retail Sales]

• past data is 0.6%
• forecast data is 0.3%
• actual data is 0.3% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Core Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles.

==========

From marketwatch article :

• "Retail sales in the U.S. rose modestly in January as Americans spent more money eating out and furnishing their homes, but spending was relatively soft at the start of the new year."
  
• "Retail sales climbed 0.3% last month, the government said Thursday, matching the MarketWatch forecast."
  
• "Retail sales didn’t appear to add much to the economy in January. A more narrow measure of sales that is used in the government’s calculation of gross domestic product was basically flat in the month."

==========

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by United States Retail Sales Ex Autos news events

==========

USD/JPY: range price movement by United States Retail Sales Ex Autos news events

==========

USD/CAD: range price movement by United States Retail Sales Ex Autos news events

==========

Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• SilverTrend_NRTR - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Fourier extrapolation of price - indicator for MetaTrader 5

==========

The forum threads

1. Key forum thread - Fast Fourier Transform - Cycle Extraction - the thead with FFTfiltr indicator and explanation
2. New EA based on the !xMeter (!xMter based on Fast Fourier Transform) - the thread 
3. Many FFT indicators with examples and explanations - the thread 
4. Ticks Before The News - the thread with many FFT indicators and explanation how to trade

CodeBase

1. dt_FFT - library for MetaTrader  
2. LGLIB - Numerical Analysis Library - library for MetaTrader 4 
3. ALGLIB - Numerical Analysis Library - library for MetaTrader 5 
4. AFIRMA - indicator for MetaTrader 5
   
5. Fourier extrapolation of price - indicator for MetaTrader 5

The articles

• Introduction to the Empirical Mode Decomposition Method  
  
• Building a Spectrum Analyzer  
• Analysis of the Main Characteristics of Time Series

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.02.26 18:42

Intra-Day Fundamentals - NZD/USD and Dollar Index (DXY): United States New Residential Sales

2020-02-26 15:00 GMT | [USD - New Home Sales]

• past data is 708K
• forecast data is 711K
• actual data is 764K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - New Home Sales] = Annualized number of new single-family homes that were sold during the previous month.

==========

From forbes article :

• "The number of new home sales hit an almost 13-year high last month, according to data released by the U.S. Census Bureau this morning. In total, new home sales were up 7.9% from December to January. There were 764,000 new, single-family units sold in the month—an 18.6% uptick over the year and a marked improvement over the Bureau’s predicted numbers of 711,000."

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NZD/USD: range price movement by United States New Home Sales news events

==========

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by United States New Home Sales news events

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.03.04 11:19

Fed Announces Emergency Rate Cut In Response To Coronavirus (based on the article)

• "Even with the next monetary policy meeting just two weeks away, the Federal Reserve announced a surprise move to enact an emergency interest rate cut on Tuesday in response to the economic risks posed by the coronavirus outbreak. The Fed announced that it has decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 1 to 1-1/4 percent."

Dollar Index daily chart by Metatrader 5

• "In the accompanying statement, the Fed said the fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain strong but noted the coronavirus poses evolving risks to economic activity."
  

Dow Jones Index daily chart by Metatrader 5

• "The emergency rate cut, the first since the financial crisis, also came after President Donald Trump ramped up pressure on the Fed to lower rates".
• "Our Federal Reserve has us paying higher rates than many others, when we should be paying less," Trump said in a post on Twitter. "Tough on our exporters and puts the USA at a competitive disadvantage".
• "The unanimous decision to cut rates was widely expected to be announced after the Fed's next monetary policy meeting on March 17-18".

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5