Press review - page 644

[Sergey Golubev]

Crude Oil - bearish ranging (based on the article)

• "Crude oil continues to be strikingly weak as its relationship to stocks and the ‘risk trade’ has become noticeably untethered. The initial bounce off the June low held some power, but the past couple of sessions after retesting the monthly low the bounce has been smaller."
• "A turn down from right around here (also the trend-line from last month) will help complete a descending wedge pattern. Given the general trend and nature of the pattern (lower high, flat bottom structure) it is anticipated that a downside break will develop."
  
• "A sustained decline through $50.54 should have the WTI contract picking up downside momentum again. The height of the wedge implies about a $4 drop, or about $46. This aligns with the weekly chart, where a confluence of support runs over from 2016."
• "A failure to roll down and break the $50.54 level will keep the outlook neutral, while some work on the upside will be needed to turn the trading bias bullish. The wedge could develop further and break to the top-side but risk of the breakout failing will be elevated given the generally weak backdrop in place."

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The chart was made on daily timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Price prediction by Nearest Neighbor found by a weighted correlation coefficient - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CAD - ranging to the bullish reversal; 1.3431 is the key (based on the article)

• "Looking at the daily chart we notice USD/CAD eying the higher end of the mentioned consolidation zone however, the pair needs to clear 1.3457. Therefore, any failure to close above this level may send the price to retest 1.3377. Its worth noting that any close below 1.3377 may lead USD/CAD towards 1.3289. Although the weekly support levels at 1.3358 and 1.3332 should be watched closely."
• "Looking at the four-hour chart, we notice on Jun 11 USD/CAD found support at 1.3250 and started an uptrend creating higher highs with higher lows. However, since the start of this week this trend has paused reflecting bulls’ reluctance to continue pushing higher. Uptrend could start to accelerate if USD/CAD breaks above 1.3457 this could lead the pair towards 1.3493 however, weekly resistance level at 1.3476 need to be kept in focus. On the other hand, the pair’s outlook could shift if USD/CAD breaks below 1.3393 (the weekly low). This suggests the price trade even lower towards 1.3358 contingent on clearing the weekly support at 1.3377. See the chart for more key levels if the selloff continues below 1.3358."

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The chart was made on daily timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/CAD and Brent Crude Oil: Canada Consumer Price Index (CPI)

2019-06-19 12:30 GMT | [CAD - CPI]

• past data is 0.4%
• forecast data is 0.1%
• actual data is 0.4% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

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From official report :

• "The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% on a year-over-year basis in May, up from a 2.0% increase in April. The CPIincreased amid a series of broad-based gains, including higher prices for food and durable goods, while consumers paid 3.7% less for gasoline compared with May 2018. Excluding gasoline, the CPI increased 2.7% year over year, up from a 2.3% increase in April."

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USD/CAD: range price movement by Canada Consumer Price Index news events

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Brent Crude Oil: range price movement by Canada Consumer Price Index news events

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• BrainTrend2Sig indicator from Codebase (free to download)
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Fibo Bar MT5 - indicator for MetaTrader 5

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

• BrainTrending indicators to download with template.
• Rules to trade manually
• How to install 

[Sergey Golubev]

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: BoE Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Summary and range price movement  

2019-06-20 11:00 GMT | [GBP - BoE Interest Rate Decision]

• past data is 0.75%
• forecast data is 0.75%
• actual data is 0.75% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - GDP] = Interest rate at which the BOE lends to financial institutions overnight.

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From official report :

• "Our Monetary Policy Committee has voted unanimously to maintain Bank Rate at 0.75%. The committee also voted unanimously to maintain the stock of corporate bond purchases and UK government bond purchases."

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GBP/USD: range price movement by  BoE Interest Rate Decision news event 

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

Hammer Candlestick Patterns (based on the article) 

The hammer candlestick pattern is frequently observed in the forex market and provides important insight into trend reversals. It’s crucial that traders understand that there is more to the hammer candle than simply spotting it on a chart. Price action and the location of the hammer candle, when viewed within the existing trend, are both crucial validating factors for this candle.

What is a Hammer Candlestick?

The hammer candlestick is found at the bottom of a downtrend and signals a potential (bullish) reversal in the market.The most common hammer candle is the bullish hammer which has a small candle body and an extended lower wick – showing rejection of lower prices.The other pattern traders look out for is the inverted hammer, which is an upside-down bullish hammer. 

Bullish Hammer Candlestick 

The hammer candlestick appears at the bottom of a down trend and signals a bullish reversal. The hammer candle has a small body, little to no upper wick, and a long lower wick - resembling a ‘hammer’. 
The pattern indicates that the price dropped to new lows, but subsequent buying pressure forced the price to close higher, hinting at a potential reversal. The extended lower wick is indicative of the rejection of lower prices. 

Inverted Hammer Candlestick

The inverted hammer candlestick, like the bullish hammer, also provides a signal for a bullish reversal. The candle is, as the name suggests, an inverted hammer. The candle has a long extended upper wick, a small real body with little or no lower wick. 
The candle opens at the bottom of a downtrend before the bulls push price upwards – reflected in the extended upper wick. Price does eventually return down towards the opening level but closes above the open, to provide the bullish signal. Should the buying momentum continue, this will be seen in the subsequent price action moving higher.

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using the following indicator from CodeBase:

• Japanese Candlestick Patterns - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: French Flash Services PMI and range price movement 

2019-06-21 07:15 GMT | [EUR - French Flash Services PMI]

• past data is 51.5
• forecast data is 51.6
• actual data is 53.1 according to the latest press release 

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - French Flash Services PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the services industry.

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From official report :

• "Flash France Composite Output Index at 52.9 in June from 51.2 in May (7-month high)."
• "Flash France Services Activity Index at 53.1 in June (51.5 in May), 7-month high."
• "Flash France Manufacturing Output Index at 52.0 in June (49.8 in May), 10-month high."
• "Flash France Manufacturing PMI at 52.0 in June (50.6 in May), 9-month high."

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EUR/USD: range price movement by  French Flash Services PMI news event

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Bitcoin Breaks $10,000 (based on the article) 

• "Bitcoin prices surpassed $10,000 today, breaking through this key, psychological level and hitting their highest point since March 2018. The world's most prominent digital currency climbed above $10,000 at roughly 07:30 p.m. EDT, before extending these gains in the following hours, CoinDesk figures show. Bitcoin, which has been following a strong, upward trend for several months, has climbed more than 230% since reaching a local low of roughly $3,100 in December."
• "When explaining the digital currency's recent bullishness, analysts have pointed to factors like strong market sentiment, optimistic media coverage and widespread hype surrounding the release of Facebook's libra currency."

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The chart was made with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Price prediction by Nearest Neighbor found by a weighted correlation coefficient - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: German Ifo Business Climate and range price movement 

2019-06-24 08:00 GMT | [EUR - German Ifo Business Climate]

• past data is 97.9
• forecast data is 97.5
• actual data is 97.4 according to the latest press release 

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - German Ifo Business Climate] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, services, and retailers.

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From rttnews article :

• "Germany's business sentiment weakened to the lowest level in more than four years in June as companies turned increasingly pessimistic about months ahead amid trade wars. The business confidence index dropped more-than-expected to 97.4 in June from 97.9 in May. The score was forecast to fall to 97.5, survey data from the ifo Institute showed Monday. This was the lowest since November 2014, when the reading was 96.1. Companies' assessment of the current situation improved marginally, while their expectations deteriorated further."

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EUR/USD: range price movement by  German Ifo Business Climate news event

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Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Vortex - indicator for MetaTrader 5

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBNZ Official Cash Rate, RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement and range price movement  

2019-06-26 02:00 GMT | [NZD - Official Cash Rate]

• past data is 1.50%
• forecast data is 1.50%
• actual data is 1.50% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Official Cash Rate] = Interest rate at which banks lend balances held at the RBNZ to other banks overnight.

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From official report :

• "The Official Cash Rate (OCR) remains at 1.5 percent. Given the weaker global economic outlook and the risk of ongoing subdued domestic growth, a lower OCR may be needed over time to continue to meet our objectives."
• "Domestic growth has slowed over the past year. While construction activity strengthened in the March 2019 quarter, growth in the services sector continued to slow. Softer house prices and subdued business sentiment continue to dampen domestic spending."

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NZD/USD: range price movement by RBNZ  Official Cash Rate news event 

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Quick ZigZag plus DiNapoli - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• GMMA - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Vortex - indicator for MetaTrader 5

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After

• The main AscTrend thread is this one.
• Asctrend indicator in depth 
• ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included)
• Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/JPY - bearish breakdown; 107 is the key (based on the article)

• "USD/JPY: Retail trader data shows 70.8% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.42 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since May 03 when USD/JPY traded near 111.552; price has moved 3.5% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 3.5% higher than yesterday and 12.1% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 2.3% higher than yesterday and 2.7% higher from last week."

============

The chart was made with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Price prediction by Nearest Neighbor found by a weighted correlation coefficient - indicator for MetaTrader 5