Stress Testing Trade Sequences with Monte Carlo in MQL5
A backtest shows only one path among many possible outcomes. This MQL5 script performs 1000 bootstrap Monte Carlo resamples of a trade P&L series, draws a percentile fan chart on the chart via CCanvas, and reports probability of ruin, value at risk, and 95th‑percentile worst drawdown. The result is a practical view of path risk and drawdown exposure beyond a single equity curve.
Category Theory in MQL5 (Part 21): Natural Transformations with LDA
This article, the 21st in our series, continues with a look at Natural Transformations and how they can be implemented using linear discriminant analysis. We present applications of this in a signal class format, like in the previous article.
Data Science and ML (Part 36): Dealing with Biased Financial Markets
Financial markets are not perfectly balanced. Some markets are bullish, some are bearish, and some exhibit some ranging behaviors indicating uncertainty in either direction, this unbalanced information when used to train machine learning models can be misleading as the markets change frequently. In this article, we are going to discuss several ways to tackle this issue.
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 63): Using Patterns of DeMarker and Envelope Channels
The DeMarker Oscillator and the Envelope indicator are momentum and support/resistance tools that can be paired when developing an Expert Advisor. We therefore examine on a pattern by pattern basis what could be of use and what potentially avoid. We are using, as always, a wizard assembled Expert Advisor together with the Patterns-Usage functions that are built into the Expert Signal Class.
Neural Networks in Trading: Exploring the Local Structure of Data
Effective identification and preservation of the local structure of market data in noisy conditions is a critical task in trading. The use of the Self-Attention mechanism has shown promising results in processing such data; however, the classical approach does not account for the local characteristics of the underlying structure. In this article, I introduce an algorithm capable of incorporating these structural dependencies.
MetaTrader 5 Machine Learning Blueprint (Part 7): From Scattered Experiments to Reproducible Results
In the latest installment of this series, we move beyond individual machine learning techniques to address the "Research Chaos" that plagues many quantitative traders. This article focuses on the transition from ad-hoc notebook experiments to a principled, production-grade pipeline that ensures reproducibility, traceability, and efficiency.
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 32): Regularization
Regularization is a form of penalizing the loss function in proportion to the discrete weighting applied throughout the various layers of a neural network. We look at the significance, for some of the various regularization forms, this can have in test runs with a wizard assembled Expert Advisor.
Neural Networks in Trading: Injection of Global Information into Independent Channels (InjectTST)
Most modern multimodal time series forecasting methods use the independent channels approach. This ignores the natural dependence of different channels of the same time series. Smart use of two approaches (independent and mixed channels) is the key to improving the performance of the models.
Neural Networks in Trading: Point Cloud Analysis (PointNet)
Direct point cloud analysis avoids unnecessary data growth and improves the performance of models in classification and segmentation tasks. Such approaches demonstrate high performance and robustness to perturbations in the original data.
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 39): Relative Strength Index
The RSI is a popular momentum oscillator that measures pace and size of a security’s recent price change to evaluate over-and-under valued situations in the security’s price. These insights in speed and magnitude are key in defining reversal points. We put this oscillator to work in another custom signal class and examine the traits of some of its signals. We start, though, by wrapping up what we started previously on Bollinger Bands.
Formulating Dynamic Multi-Pair EA (Part 7): Cross-Pair Correlation Mapping for Real-Time Trade Filtering
In this part, we will integrate a real-time correlation matrix into a multi-symbol Expert Advisor to prevent redundant or risk-stacked trades. By dynamically measuring cross-pair relationships, the EA will filter entries that conflict with existing exposure, improving portfolio balance, reducing systemic risk, and enhancing overall trade quality.
Market Simulation (Part 04): Creating the C_Orders Class (I)
In this article, we will start creating the C_Orders class to be able to send orders to the trading server. We'll do this little by little, as our goal is to explain in detail how this will happen through the messaging system.
Developing a Replay System (Part 46): Chart Trade Project (V)
Tired of wasting time searching for that very file that you application needs in order to work? How about including everything in the executable? This way you won't have to search for the things. I know that many people use this form of distribution and storage, but there is a much more suitable way. At least as far as the distribution of executable files and their storage is concerned. The method that will be presented here can be very useful, since you can use MetaTrader 5 itself as an excellent assistant, as well as MQL5. Furthermore, it is not that difficult to understand.
Developing a Replay System (Part 40): Starting the second phase (I)
Today we'll talk about the new phase of the replay/simulator system. At this stage, the conversation will become truly interesting and quite rich in content. I strongly recommend that you read the article carefully and use the links provided in it. This will help you understand the content better.
Developing a Replay System (Part 43): Chart Trade Project (II)
Most people who want or dream of learning to program don't actually have a clue what they're doing. Their activity consists of trying to create things in a certain way. However, programming is not about tailoring suitable solutions. Doing it this way can create more problems than solutions. Here we will be doing something more advanced and therefore different.
MQL5 Trading Tools (Part 24): Depth-Perception Upgrades with 3D Curves, Pan Mode, and ViewCube Navigation
In this article, we enhance the 3D binomial distribution graphing tool in MQL5 by adding a segmented 3D curve for improved depth perception of the probability mass function, integrating pan mode for view target shifting, and implementing an interactive view cube with hover zones and animations for quick orientation changes. We incorporate clickable sub-zones on the view cube for faces, edges, and corners to animate camera transitions to standard views, while maintaining switchable 2D/3D modes, real-time updates, and customizable parameters for immersive probabilistic analysis in trading.
Neural Networks in Trading: Memory Augmented Context-Aware Learning for Cryptocurrency Markets (Final Part)
The MacroHFT framework for high-frequency cryptocurrency trading uses context-aware reinforcement learning and memory to adapt to dynamic market conditions. At the end of this article, we will test the implemented approaches on real historical data to assess their effectiveness.
Developing a Replay System (Part 29): Expert Advisor project — C_Mouse class (III)
After improving the C_Mouse class, we can focus on creating a class designed to create a completely new framework fr our analysis. We will not use inheritance or polymorphism to create this new class. Instead, we will change, or better said, add new objects to the price line. That's what we will do in this article. In the next one, we will look at how to change the analysis. All this will be done without changing the code of the C_Mouse class. Well, actually, it would be easier to achieve this using inheritance or polymorphism. However, there are other methods to achieve the same result.
Neural Networks in Trading: Piecewise Linear Representation of Time Series
This article is somewhat different from my earlier publications. In this article, we will talk about an alternative representation of time series. Piecewise linear representation of time series is a method of approximating a time series using linear functions over small intervals.
Neural Networks in Trading: Transformer for the Point Cloud (Pointformer)
In this article, we will talk about algorithms for using attention methods in solving problems of detecting objects in a point cloud. Object detection in point clouds is important for many real-world applications.
Overcoming The Limitation of Machine Learning (Part 9): Correlation-Based Feature Learning in Self-Supervised Finance
Self-supervised learning is a powerful paradigm of statistical learning that searches for supervisory signals generated from the observations themselves. This approach reframes challenging unsupervised learning problems into more familiar supervised ones. This technology has overlooked applications for our objective as a community of algorithmic traders. Our discussion, therefore, aims to give the reader an approachable bridge into the open research area of self-supervised learning and offers practical applications that provide robust and reliable statistical models of financial markets without overfitting to small datasets.
Python-MetaTrader 5 Strategy Tester (Part 05): Multi-Symbols and Timeframes Strategy Tester
This article presents a MetaTrader 5–compatible backtesting workflow that scales across symbols and timeframes. We use HistoryManager to parallelize data collection, synchronize bars and ticks from all timeframes, and run symbol‑isolated OnTick handlers in threads. You will learn how modelling modes affect speed/accuracy, when to rely on terminal data, how to reduce I/O with event‑driven updates, and how to assemble a complete multicurrency trading robot.
Creating Custom Indicators in MQL5 (Part 10): Enhancing the Footprint Chart with Per-Bar Volume Sentiment Information Box
The article enhances an MQL5 footprint indicator with a compact box above each candle that summarizes net delta, total volume, and buy/sell percentages. We implement supersampled anti‑aliased rendering, rounded corners via arc and quadrilateral rasterization, and per‑pixel alpha compositing. Supporting utilities include ARGB conversion, scanline fills, and box‑filter downsampling. The box delivers fast sentiment reads that stay legible across zoom levels.
Low-Frequency Quantitative Strategies in Metatrader 5: (Part 2) Backtesting a Lead/Lag Analysis in SQL and in Metatrader 5
The article describes a complete pipeline that uses data analysis for finding low-frequency lead/lag trading opportunities. It goes into building a cross-correlation-based Lead/Lag analyser step-by-step, with special attention to the most common errors beginners may commit while developing cross-asset diffusion queries. After screening dozens of cointegrated and correlated pairs, a trading candidate pair is chosen, and its tradeability is evaluated in a pure SQL backtest. Once it is qualified, the strategy is backtested on the MetaTester for parameter optimization. The Expert Advisor with respective backtest settings and optimization inputs is provided, along with Python and SQL scripts.
Larry Williams Market Secrets (Part 8): Combining Volatility, Structure and Time Filters
An in-depth walkthrough of building a Larry Williams inspired volatility breakout Expert Advisor in MQL5, combining swing structure, volatility-based entries, trade day of the week filtering, time filters, and flexible risk management, with a complete implementation and reproducible test setup.
MetaTrader 5 Machine Learning Blueprint (Part 12): Probability Calibration for Financial Machine Learning
Tree-based classifiers are typically overconfident: true win rates near 0.55 appear as 0.65–0.80 and inflate position sizes and Kelly fractions. This article presents afml.calibration and CalibratorCV, which generate out-of-fold predictions via PurgedKFold and fit isotonic regression or Platt scaling. We define Brier score, ECE, and MCE, and show diagnostics that trace miscalibration into position sizes, realized P&L, and CPCV path Sharpe distributions to support leakage-free, correctly sized trading.
Neural Networks in Trading: Hierarchical Dual-Tower Transformer (Hidformer)
We invite you to get acquainted with the Hierarchical Double-Tower Transformer (Hidformer) framework, which was developed for time series forecasting and data analysis. The framework authors proposed several improvements to the Transformer architecture, which resulted in increased forecast accuracy and reduced computational resource consumption.
Neural networks are easy (Part 59): Dichotomy of Control (DoC)
In the previous article, we got acquainted with the Decision Transformer. But the complex stochastic environment of the foreign exchange market did not allow us to fully implement the potential of the presented method. In this article, I will introduce an algorithm that is aimed at improving the performance of algorithms in stochastic environments.
Category Theory in MQL5 (Part 17): Functors and Monoids
This article, the final in our series to tackle functors as a subject, revisits monoids as a category. Monoids which we have already introduced in these series are used here to aid in position sizing, together with multi-layer perceptrons.
Neural Networks Made Easy (Part 90): Frequency Interpolation of Time Series (FITS)
By studying the FEDformer method, we opened the door to the frequency domain of time series representation. In this new article, we will continue the topic we started. We will consider a method with which we can not only conduct an analysis, but also predict subsequent states in a particular area.
Neural Networks in Trading: Generalized 3D Referring Expression Segmentation
While analyzing the market situation, we divide it into separate segments, identifying key trends. However, traditional analysis methods often focus on one aspect and thus limit the proper perception. In this article, we will learn about a method that enables the selection of multiple objects to ensure a more comprehensive and multi-layered understanding of the situation.
Developing a Replay System (Part 69): Getting the Time Right (II)
Today we will look at why we need the iSpread feature. At the same time, we will understand how the system informs us about the remaining time of the bar when there is not a single tick available for it. The content presented here is intended solely for educational purposes. Under no circumstances should the application be viewed for any purpose other than to learn and master the concepts presented.
Chemical reaction optimization (CRO) algorithm (Part I): Process chemistry in optimization
In the first part of this article, we will dive into the world of chemical reactions and discover a new approach to optimization! Chemical reaction optimization (CRO) uses principles derived from the laws of thermodynamics to achieve efficient results. We will reveal the secrets of decomposition, synthesis and other chemical processes that became the basis of this innovative method.
Neural networks made easy (Part 82): Ordinary Differential Equation models (NeuralODE)
In this article, we will discuss another type of models that are aimed at studying the dynamics of the environmental state.
Causal inference in time series classification problems
In this article, we will look at the theory of causal inference using machine learning, as well as the custom approach implementation in Python. Causal inference and causal thinking have their roots in philosophy and psychology and play an important role in our understanding of reality.
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 52): Accelerator Oscillator
The Accelerator Oscillator is another Bill Williams Indicator that tracks price momentum's acceleration and not just its pace. Although much like the Awesome oscillator we reviewed in a recent article, it seeks to avoid the lagging effects by focusing more on acceleration as opposed to just speed. We examine as always what patterns we can get from this and also what significance each could have in trading via a wizard assembled Expert Advisor.
Statistical Arbitrage Through Cointegrated Stocks (Final): Data Analysis with Specialized Database
The article shows how to pair SQLite (OLTP) with DuckDB (OLAP) for statistical arbitrage data processing. DuckDB’s columnar engine, ASOF JOIN, and array functions accelerate core tasks such as quote–trade alignment and RWEC, with measured speedups from 2x to 23x versus SQLite on larger inputs. You get simpler queries and faster analytics while keeping trade execution in SQLite.
Risk Management (Part 4): Completing the Key Class Methods
This is Part 4 of our series on risk management in MQL5, where we continue exploring advanced methods for protecting and optimizing trading strategies. Having laid important foundations in earlier articles, we will now focus on completing all remaining methods postponed in Part 3, including functions for checking whether specific profit or loss levels have been reached. In addition, we will introduce new key events that enable more accurate and flexible risk management.
MetaTrader 5 Machine Learning Blueprint (Part 10): Bet Sizing for Financial Machine Learning
Fixed fractions and raw probabilities misallocate risk under overlapping labels and induce overtrading. This article delivers four AFML-compliant sizers: probability-based (z-score → CDF, active-bet averaging, discretization), forecast-price (sigmoid/power with w calibration and limit price), budget-constrained (direction-only), and reserve (mixture-CDF via EF3M). You get a signed, bounded position series with documented conditions of use.
Data Science and ML (Part 44): Forex OHLC Time series Forecasting using Vector Autoregression (VAR)
Explore how Vector Autoregression (VAR) models can forecast Forex OHLC (Open, High, Low, and Close) time series data. This article covers VAR implementation, model training, and real-time forecasting in MetaTrader 5, helping traders analyze interdependent currency movements and improve their trading strategies.