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Forecast and levels for EURO - page 35

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Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.11.14 09:20

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: German GDP and range price movement 

2019-11-14 07:00 GMT | [EUR - German GDP]

  • past data is -0.1%
  • forecast data is -0.1%
  • actual data is 0.1% according to the latest press release 
if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - German GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

==========

From official report :

  • "In the third quarter of 2019, the price-adjusted gross domestic product in Germany increased by 0.1% on the second quarter of 2019, after adjustment for seasonal and calendar variations. According to the most recent calculations, taking into account newly available statistical information, the GDP was down 0.2% in the second quarter of 2019, which is 0.1 percentage points more than first published. The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that the increase in the first quarter of 2019 (0.5%) was by 0.1 percentage points larger than published earlier."

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EUR/USD: range price movement by German GDP news event

EUR/USD: range price movement by German GDP news event

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:


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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.11.26 17:13

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CNH and Dax Index: CB Consumer Confidence

2019-11-26 15:00 GMT | [USD - CB Consumer Confidence]

  • past data is 126.1
  • forecast data is 125.2
  • actual data is 125.5 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CB Consumer Confidence] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed households.

==========

From official report :

  • "The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased in November, following a slight decline in October. The Index now stands at 125.5 (1985=100), down from 126.1 in October. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – decreased from 173.5 to 166.9. The Expectations Index – based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions – increased from 94.5 last month to 97.9 this month."
  • "Consumer confidence declined for a fourth consecutive month, driven by a softening in consumers’ assessment of current business and employment conditions,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “The decline in the Present Situation Index suggests that economic growth in the final quarter of 2019 will remain weak. However, consumers’ short-term expectations improved modestly, and growth in early 2020 is likely to remain at around 2 percent. Overall, confidence levels are still high and should support solid spending during this holiday season."

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EUR/USD: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

EUR/USD: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

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USD/CNH: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

USD/CNH: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

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Dax Index: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events



Dax Index: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:


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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.12.04 17:37

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/CNH: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

2019-12-04 15:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI]

  • past data is 54.7
  • forecast data is 54.5
  • actual data is 53.9 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers, excluding the manufacturing industry.

==========

From official report :

  • "The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The NMI® registered 53.9 percent, which is 0.8 percentage points lower than the October reading of 54.7 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector, at a slightly slower rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased to 51.6 percent, 5.4 percentage points lower than the October reading of 57 percent, reflecting growth for the 124th consecutive month."

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EUR/USD: range price movement by  ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news events

EUR/USD: range price movement by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news events

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GBP/USD: range price movement by  ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news events

GBP/USD: range price movement by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news events

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USD/CNH: range price movement by  ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news events

USD/CNH: range price movement by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news events

=========

The charts were made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5


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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.12.11 16:09

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CAD and USD/JPY: United States  Consumer Price Index (CPI)

2019-12-11 13:30 GMT | [USD - CPI]

  • past data is 0.4%
  • forecast data is 0.1%
  • actual data is 0.3% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

==========

From official report :

  • "The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.3 percent in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.4 percent in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.1 percent before seasonal adjustment."

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EUR/USD: range price movement by United States  Consumer Price Index news event 

EUR/USD: range price movement by United States Consumer Price Index news event

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USD/CAD: range price movement by United States  Consumer Price Index news event 

USD/CAD: range price movement by United States Consumer Price Index news event

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USD/JPY: range price movement by United States  Consumer Price Index news event 

USD/JPY: range price movement by United States Consumer Price Index news event

==========

Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

  1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
  2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
  3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
  4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.12.11 21:14

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index and EUR/USD: Federal Funds Rate and FOMC Statement

2019-12-11 19:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]

  • past data is 1.75%
  • forecast data is 1.75%
  • actual data is 1.75% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

==========

From official report :

  • "Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1‑1/2 to 1-3/4 percent. The Committee judges that the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate to support sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective. The Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook, including global developments and muted inflation pressures, as it assesses the appropriate path of the target range for the federal funds rate."

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Dollar Index: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

Dollar Index: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

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EUR/USD: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

EUR/USD: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:


Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.12.12 14:57

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ECB Interest Rates, Monetary Policy Statement and range price movement 

2019-12-12 12:45 GMT | [EUR - Main Refinancing Rate]

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - Main Refinancing Rate] = Interest rate on the main refinancing operations that provide the bulk of liquidity to the banking system.

==========

From official report :

  • "At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.50% respectively. The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present or lower levels until it has seen the inflation outlook robustly converge to a level sufficiently close to, but below, 2% within its projection horizon, and such convergence has been consistently reflected in underlying inflation dynamics."

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EUR/USD: range price movement by ECB  Interest Rates news event

EUR/USD: range price movement by ECB Interest Rates news event

EUR/USD: range price movement by ECB Interest Rates news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase: 

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.01.08 15:46

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, EUR/USD and USD/CNH: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (ADP) and range price movement 

2020-01-08 13:15 GMT | [USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change]

  • past data is 124K
  • forecast data is 160K
  • actual data is 202K according to the latest press release 
if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change] = Estimated change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry and government.

==========

From official report :

  • "Private-sector employment increased by 202,000 from November to December, on a seasonally adjusted basis."

==========

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event

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EUR/USD: range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event

EUR/USD: range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event

==========

USD/CNH: range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event

USD/CNH: range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event

==========

Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

  1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
  2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
  3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
  4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.01.16 15:38

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CAD and Brent Crude Oil: United States Retail Sales Ex Autos

2020-01-16 13:30 GMT | [USD - Core Retail Sales]

  • past data is 0.0%
  • forecast data is 0.3%
  • actual data is 0.7% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Core Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

==========

From reuters article :

  • "U.S. retail sales rose for a third straight month in December, with households buying a range of goods even as they cut back on purchases of motor vehicles, which could strengthen the view that the economy maintained a moderate growth pace at the end of 2019. The Commerce Department said on Thursday retail sales increased 0.3% last month. Data for November was revised up to show retail sales gaining 0.3% instead of rising 0.2% as previously reported. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales would gain 0.3% in December. Compared to December last year, retail sales accelerated 5.8%."

==========

EUR/USD: range price movement by United States Core Retail Sales news events

EUR/USD: range price movement by United States Core Retail Sales news events

==========

USD/CAD: range price movement by United States Core Retail Sales news events

USD/CAD: range price movement by United States Core Retail Sales news events

==========

Brent Crude Oil: range price movement by United States Core Retail Sales news events

Brent Crude Oil: range price movement by United States Core Retail Sales news events

==========

Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

The forum threads
  1. Key forum thread - Fast Fourier Transform - Cycle Extraction - the thead with FFTfiltr indicator and explanation
  2. New EA based on the !xMeter (!xMter based on Fast Fourier Transform) - the thread 
  3. Many FFT indicators with examples and explanations - the thread 
  4. Ticks Before The News - the thread with many FFT indicators and explanation how to trade

CodeBase

  1. dt_FFT - library for MetaTrader  
  2. LGLIB - Numerical Analysis Library - library for MetaTrader 4 
  3. ALGLIB - Numerical Analysis Library - library for MetaTrader 5 
  4. AFIRMA - indicator for MetaTrader 5
  5. Fourier extrapolation of price - indicator for MetaTrader 5

The articles


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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.01.21 12:19

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: German ZEW Economic Sentiment and range price movement 

2020-01-21 10:00 GMT | [EUR - German ZEW Economic Sentiment]

  • past data is 10.7
  • forecast data is 4.3
  • actual data is 26.7 according to the latest press release 
if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - German ZEW Economic Sentiment] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed German institutional investors and analysts.

==========

From official report :

  • "The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany has again risen sharply at the beginning of 2020. In January, the indicator stands at 26.7 points, 16.0 points higher than in the previous month. This is the indicator’s highest value since July 2015. The assessment of the economic situation in Germany has also improved considerably in the current survey, with the corresponding indicator climbing to a level of minus 9.5 points, 10.4 points higher than in December."

==========

EUR/USD: range price movement by German ZEW Economic Sentiment news event

EUR/USD: range price movement by German ZEW Economic Sentiment news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:


Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.01.27 11:37

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: German Ifo Business Climate and range price movement 

2020-01-27 09:00 GMT | [EUR - German Ifo Business Climate]

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - German Ifo Business Climate] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, services, and retailers.

==========

From rttnews article :

  • "Manufacturing is showing signs of recovery. The business climate has improved markedly. There was a particularly notable increase in the index of the current situation, which has not risen so strongly since February 2017. Moreover, companies were once again less pessimistic regarding the coming months. Capacity utilization rose from 82.6 percent to 83.1 percent. In the service sector, the indicator fell noticeably. This was due to companies’ considerably more restrained expectations. However, they were somewhat more satisfied with their current situation. In trade, the business climate improved. The indicators of the current situation and of expectations were both higher than in the previous month. However, this was due solely to wholesalers; retailers were more reserved. In construction, the index fell back. Companies’ assessments of the current situation dropped to their lowest level since June 2018. In addition, they were even more skeptical about the coming months."

==========

EUR/USD: range price movement by  German Ifo Business Climate news event

EUR/USD: range price movement by German Ifo Business Climate news event

==========

Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

  1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
  2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
  3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
  4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread

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