Forecast and levels for CAD - page 8

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.04.11 17:23

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, NZD/USD and USD/CAD: United States Consumer Price Index

2018-04-11 13:30 GMT | [USD - CPI]

  • past data is 0.2%
  • forecast data is 0.0%
  • actual data is -0.1% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

==========

From official report :

  • "The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 0.1 percent inMarch on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.2 percent in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.4 percent before seasonal adjustment."

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Dollar Index M1: range price movement by United States Consumer Price Index news events

Dollar Index chart by MT5

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NZD/USD M1: range price movement by United States Consumer Price Index news events

NZDUSD chart by MT5

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USD/CAD M5: range price movement by United States Consumer Price Index news events

USDCAD chart by MT5

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The chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.04.20 16:23

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada Consumer Price Index and range price movement 

2018-04-20 13:30 GMT | [CAD - CPI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

==========

From official report :

  • "The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.3% on a year-over-year basis in March, following a 2.2% increase in February. This was the largest year-over-year increase since October 2014. Excluding gasoline, the CPI increased 1.8%, matching the gain in February."

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USD/CAD M5: range price movement by Canada Consumer Price Index news event 

USDCAD by Metatrader 5

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.05.04 14:54

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, AUD/USD and USD/CAD: Non-Farm Payrolls

2018-05-04 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

  • past data is 135K
  • forecast data is 190K
  • actual data is 164K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] =Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

==========

From official report :

  • "Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 164,000 in April, and the unemploymentrate edged down to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, manufacturing, health care, and mining."

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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

Dollar Index by MT5

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

AUDUSD by MT5

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USD/CAD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

USDCAD by MT5

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.05.11 09:24

Canadian Dollar Rate Forecast (based on the article)

Daily price is inside Ichimoku cloud for the ranging market condition waiting for direction; the price is testing support level at 1.2742 to below for the daily bearish reversal to be started.

USDCAD by Metatrader 5


  • "A strong Candian Dollar is emerging on the back of elevated crude oil prices and a weakening US Dollar on a soft CPI print for April. Now, the focus will turn to the US/CA 2Yr yield differentials to see if the CAD can make up even more ground. The key risk to further CAD strength appears to be overconfidence on a successful outcome to NAFTA talks and potentially rich pricing in of a May rate hike."
  • "The strong/weak table above that I also share on FX closing bell helps to visualize where there is broad strength in the FX market. Currently, the strongest currency is the Canadian dollar based on an equally weighted 5-day % change with the US Dollar as a close second. The weakest currency after the RBNZ and their new Governor Orr provided a message of patience is theNew Zealand Dollar."
  • "Price had appeared wedged between clean support at C$1.2803 and resistance at C$1.29 per USD. However, a swift move higher to C$1.2999 that was reversed provides swing traders with a strong resistance point to build a CAD long bias from. However, the US Dollar remains strong, so if CAD strength persists, GBP/CAD or EUR/CAD may be better plays."
  • "We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USDCAD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current USDCAD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short."

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.05.30 06:57

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, USD/CAD and GOLD: CB Consumer Confidence

2018-05-29 15:00 GMT | [USD - CB Consumer Confidence]

  • past data is 125.6
  • forecast data is 128.2
  • actual data is 128.0 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CB Consumer Confidence] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed households.

==========

From official report :

  • "The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased in May, following a modest decline in April (after a downward revision). The Index now stands at 128.0 (1985=100), up from 125.6 in April. The Present Situation Index increased from 157.5 to 161.7, while the Expectations Index improved from 104.3 last month to 105.6 this month."

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Dollar Index M15: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

Dollar Index by Metatrader 5

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USD/CAD M30: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

USD/CAD chart by Metatrader 5

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XAU/USD M15: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

Gold/USD chart by Metatrader 5

==========

Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

  1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
  2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
  3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
  4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread 

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.05.30 16:24

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Overnight Rate, BoC Rate Statement and range price movement 

2018-05-30 15:00 GMT | [CAD - BoC Overnight Rate]

  • past data is 1.25% 
  • forecast data is 1.25%
  • actual data is 1.25% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - BoC Overnight Rate] = Interest rate at which major financial institutions borrow and lend overnight funds between themselves.

==========

From official report :

  • "The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1¼ per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1½ per cent and the deposit rate is 1 per cent."
  • "Global economic activity remains broadly on track with the Bank’s April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) forecast. Recent data point to some upside to the outlook for the US economy. At the same time, ongoing uncertainty about trade policies is dampening global business investment and stresses are developing in some emerging market economies. Global oil prices have been higher than assumed in April, in part reflecting geopolitical developments."
  • "Inflation in Canada has been close to the 2 per cent target and will likely be a bit higher in the near term than forecast in April, largely because of recent increases in gasoline prices. Core measures of inflation remain near 2 per cent, consistent with an economy operating close to potential. As usual, the Bank will look through the transitory impact of fluctuations in gasoline prices."
  • "Overall, developments since April further reinforce Governing Council’s view that higher interest rates will be warranted to keep inflation near target. Governing Council will take a gradual approach to policy adjustments, guided by incoming data. In particular, the Bank will continue to assess the economy’s sensitivity to interest rate movements and the evolution of economic capacity."

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USD/CAD M1: range price movement by BoC Overnight Rate news event 

Brainwashing system by Metatrader 5

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Forecast and levels for EURO

Sergey Golubev, 2018.06.13 21:04

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, EUR/USD and USD/CAD: Fed Funds Rate 

2018-06-19 19:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]

  • past data is 1.75%
  • forecast data is 2.00%
  • actual data is 2.00% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

==========

Dollar Index M15: range price movement by Fed Funds Rate news event 

Dollar Index by MT5

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EUR/USD M15: range price movement by Fed Funds Rate news event 

EUR/USD by MT5

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USD/CAD M15: range price movement by Fed Funds Rate news event 

USD/CAD by MT5

============

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5 and MT4:

  • BrainTrending indicators to download with template.
  • Rules to trade manually
  • How to install  
  • TSD DS jurik BrainTrading system - the key thread 
  • TSD BrainTrading Stochastics system - the post 
  • BrainTrading Semi-Manual EA for M30 timeframe system - the thread 
  • The differences between Brainwashing and BrainTrading system - the post.

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.06.29 12:50

USD/CAD  - daily correction (based on the article)

Daily price is located above 55 SMA/200 SMA reversal levels in the primary bullish area of the chart: the price was bounced from 1.3364 resistance level to below for the possible correction to be stated.

USD/CAD daily chart by Metatrader 5

  • "Economic data has aggressively disappointed consensus for much of 2018. The Citi Economic Surprise Index for Canada has consistently fallen through Q2, and in so doing has hit the lowest levels (meaning aggressive disappointments to economist's expectations) since May 2013."
  • "Despite the weakening data, not all is bad. Oil is on the rise as it recently touched the highest levels since 2014. The rise in oil has helped, but it has not been enough to prevent Canadian 2 year yields trade at their sharpest discount to the US equivalent."
  • "BoC chief Stephen Poloz stated that the central bank retains expectations for higher borrowing costs in the economy, which caused the implied probability of an interest rate hike in July per the Overnight Index Swaps market at ~75%. Before Poloz's speech, the market was pricing in a ~55% chance."

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with the following custom indicators:


 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.07.11 20:17

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Bank of Canada (BoC) Interest Rate Decision and range price movement 

2018-07-11 15:00 GMT | [CAD - Overnight Rate]

  • past data is 1.25%
  • forecast data is 1.50%
  • actual data is 1.50% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - Overnight Rate] = Interest rate at which major financial institutions borrow and lend overnight funds between themselves.

==========

From official report :

  • "The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 1 ½ per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 ¾ per cent and the deposit rate is 1 ¼ per cent."
  • "The Bank expects the global economy to grow by about 3 ¾ per cent in 2018 and 3 ½ per cent in 2019, in line with the April Monetary Policy Report (MPR). The US economy is proving stronger than expected, reinforcing market expectations of higher policy rates and pushing up the US dollar. This is contributing to financial stresses in some emerging market economies. Meanwhile, oil prices have risen. Yet, the Canadian dollar is lower, reflecting broad-based US dollar strength and concerns about trade actions. The possibility of more trade protectionism is the most important threat to global prospects."

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USD/CAD: range price movement by Bank of Canada (BoC) Interest Rate Decision news event 

USDCAD chart by Metatrader 5

============

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.07.21 17:21

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Crude Oil (based on the article)

Crude Oil chart with USD/CAD correlation by MT5

Crude Oil - "Crude opened the first day of trading last week with a sharp drop below $68/bbl only to seemingly find price and buyer support near $67/bbl. While the outlook appeared concerning with trade war headlines dominating terminals, news broke that Saudi Arabia, who previously increased supply to reduce price pressure for oil product users may not pump so much after all. The news that new Saudi and OPEC oil may not be flood the market helped to foster an apparent turnaround. WTI popped back above the 50-DMA on the news, which provides hope for the beleaguered Bulls. Another key development last week was the narrowed spread between front-month Brent and WTI, which had been near historic highs earlier this year with a compliant OPEC and a drill and pump-happy United States. Another factor that crude oil has been susceptible to alongside other assets is risk sentiment. While risk sentiment (basically, emotions and outlooks of traders and investors) are very volatile, they are a key driver of price action and the jump in risk aversion aligned with the drop in price on Monday."

============

The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.


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