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Forecast for Q2'17 - levels for USD/CAD

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Sergey Golubev
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94683
Sergey Golubev  

USD/CAD April-June 2017 Forecast: ranging inside kumo waiting for direction of the strong trend to be started

W1 price is located inside Ichimoku cloud for the ranging market condition within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 1.3598 resistance level located near and above Senkou Span line (which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart) in the beginning of the bullish trend to be started, and
  • 1.2968 support level located in the beginning of the bearish trend to be resumed. 
Chinkou Span line is above the price indicating the possible possible bearish breakdown by direction, Trend Strength indicator is estimating the trend as a bullish in the near future, and Absolute Strength indicator is evaluating the trend as a ranging. Non-lagging Tenkan-sen/Kijun-sen signal is for ranging bearish market condition for now and for very near future for example.


  • If the price breaks 1.3598 resistance level on close weekly bar to above so the reversal of the weekly price movement from the ranging bearish to the primary bullish market condition will be started.
  • If weekly price breaks 1.2968 support level on close bar to below so the primary bearish trend will be resumed.
  • If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.35341.3055
1.35981.2968

Trend:

W1 - ranging
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
94683
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.30 09:45

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: daily bullish ranging within narrow s/r levels for direction (based on the article)

Daily price is above 200 SMA in the bullish area of the chart. The price is on ranging within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 1.3534 resistance located in the beginning of the bullish trend to be resumed, and
  • 1.3263 support located in the beginning of the bearish reversal to be started.


  • "As of Wednesday, March 29, 2017, Crude Oil has a 20-day rolling inverse relationship with USD/CAD and USD/MXN of -0.557 and -0.579 respectively. The inverse correlation shows us as Oil moves higher, USD/CAD and USD/MXN move lower, albeit not perfectly. Therefore, we should watch Oil to get a sense of what may happen next with USD/CAD."
  • "Currently, USOIL is trading near the 200-DMA, and a failure to break back above on a sustainable basis may lead to further upside in USD/CAD, which the current channel seems to favor."
  • "The spot price of 1.3330 sits above the March 22 low support at 1.32635. Just below the March 22 low is the 50% retracement of the late January to March Range at 1.32517 followed by the 61.8% retracement at 1.31846. Such levels should be watched if Oil gains compound. The resistance in focus in the current move lower is the March 28 high of 1.3414. A reversal below the proven support of 1.3050/150 would need to break to turn the technical view from neutral to bearish."


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
94683
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.04.12 17:42

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Bank of Canada Overnight Rate and range price movement 

2017-04-12 15:00 GMT | [CAD - Overnight Rate]

  • past data is 0.50%
  • forecast data is 0.50%
  • actual data is 0.50% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - Overnight Rate] = Interest rate at which major financial institutions borrow and lend overnight funds between themselves.

==========

From official report:

  • "The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent."
  • "The Bank’s Governing Council acknowledges the strength of recent data, some of which is temporary, and is mindful of the significant uncertainties weighing on the outlook. In this context, Governing Council judges that the current stance of monetary policy is still appropriate and maintains the target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent."

==========

USD/CAD M5: range price movement by BoC Overnight Rate news event


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
94683
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.04.21 18:27

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada's Consumer Price Index and 62 pips range price movement 

2017-04-21 13:30 GMT | [CAD - CPI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

==========

From official report:

  • "The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.6% on a year-over-year basis in March, following a 2.0% gain in February."
  • "On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI declined 0.2% in March, after falling 0.3% in February."

==========

USD/CAD M5: 62 pips range price movement by Canada's Consumer Price Index news event



Sergey Golubev
Moderator
94683
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.04.22 10:55

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/CAD (based on the article)


USD/CAD"The news is not all negative for the Canadian Dollar with the latest Bank of Canada policy meeting (April 12) producing a slightly hawkish tone. Bank of Canada senior deputy governor Carolyn Wilkins said in her opening statement that “many of the economic data that we have seen since our last MPR have been stronger than expected,” adding that “is certainly a welcome change.” Canada’s economy is expected to grow by 2.5% this year and just below 2% in 2018 and 2019."


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
94683
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.04.26 15:38

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada's Retail Sales and range price movement 

2017-04-26 13:30 GMT | [CAD - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

==========

From official report:

  • "Retail sales declined 0.6% to $47.8 billion in February, following a 2.3% increase in January. Sales were down in 5 of 11 subsectors, representing 67% of total retail sales."
  • "Lower sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers and gasoline stations were the main contributors to the decline. Excluding these two subsectors, retail sales were up 0.5%."

==========

USD/CAD M5: range price movement by Canada's Retail Sales news event



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