Forecast and levels for CAD - page 4

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.13 09:27

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/CAD (based on the article)


USD/CAD - "The Bank of Canada (BoC) may adopt a more hawkish tone as consumer prices are anticipatedto pick up in July. It seems as though the BoC will look through the recent weakness in the CPI as ‘the factors behind soft inflation appear to be mostly temporary,’ and Governor Stephen Poloz and Co. may prepare Canadian households and businesses for higher borrowing costs as ‘the output gap is now projected to close around the end of 2017, earlier than the Bank anticipated in its April Monetary Policy Report (MPR).’ As a result, the shift in USD/CAD behavior may continue to unfold in the second-half of the year as the BoC appears to be on course to further normalize monetary policy over the coming months."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.18 14:54

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada's Consumer Price Index and range price movement 

2017-08-18 13:30 GMT | [CAD - CPI]

  • past data is -0.1%
  • forecast data is 0.0%
  • actual data is 0.0% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. 

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From official report :

  • "Prices were up in six of the eight major components in the 12 months to July, with the transportation and shelter indexes contributing the most to the year-over-year rise in the CPI. The household operations, furnishings and equipment index and the clothing and footwear index declined on a year-over-year basis."
  • "Transportation costs rose 1.9% on a year-over-year basis in July, following a 0.6% increase in June. Gasoline prices contributed most to the gain in prices, as well as to their acceleration, rising 4.6% in the 12 months to July, after posting a 1.4% decline in June. The purchase of passenger vehicles index increased 0.2% year over year in July, after declining 0.2% the previous month. At the same time, passenger vehicle insurance premiums rose at a slower rate in the 12 months to July than they did in June."

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USD/CAD M5: range price movement by Canada's Consumer Price Index news event 



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.21 16:27

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada's Wholesale Sales and range price movement 

2017-08-21 13:30 GMT | [CAD - Wholesale Sales]

  • past data is -1.0%
  • forecast data is 0.6%
  • actual data is -0.5% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - Wholesale Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the wholesale level. 

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From official report :

  • "Wholesale sales declined 0.5% to $61.4 billion in June following eight consecutive monthly increases. Declines were recorded in five of seven subsectors, led by the food, beverage and tobacco subsector and the motor vehicle and parts subsector."
  • "In the second quarter of 2017, current dollar wholesale sales increased 2.5% while constant dollar sales increased 1.7%. For both current and constant dollars, the increase in sales in this quarter was the fifth consecutive quarterly increase."

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USD/CAD M5: range price movement by Canada's Wholesale Sales news event 



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.22 17:09

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada's Retail Sales and range price movement 

2017-08-22 13:30 GMT | [CAD - Core Retail Sales]

  • past data is -0.1%
  • forecast data is 0.0%
  • actual data is 0.7% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - Core Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles. 

==========

From official report :

  • "Retail sales rose for the fourth consecutive month in June, edging up 0.1% to $49.0 billion. Sales were up in 6 of 11 subsectors, representing 38% of total retail trade."
  • "Higher sales at general merchandise stores, clothing and clothing accessories stores, and building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers offset lower sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers and gasoline stations. Excluding the latter two subsectors, retail sales were up 1.1%."

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USD/CAD M5: range price movement by Canada's Retail Sales news event 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.29 17:54

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CAD and USD/CNH: Consumer Confidence Index

2017-08-29 15:00 GMT | [USD - CB Consumer Confidence]

  • past data is 120.0
  • forecast data is 122.6
  • actual data is 122.9 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CB Consumer Confidence] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed households.

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From official report :

  • "The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had increased in July, improved further in August. The Index now stands at 122.9 (1985=100), up from 120.0 in July. The Present Situation Index increased from 145.4 to 151.2, while the Expectations Index rose marginally from 103.0 last month to 104.0."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Consumer Confidence Index news events


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USD/CAD M5: range price movement by Consumer Confidence Index news events


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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by Consumer Confidence Index news events



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.01 07:53

USD/CAD - bearish ranging; 1.2413 is the key (based on the article)

Weekly price is below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart. The price is on ranging within the folllwing support/resistance levels:

  • 1.2413 support level located in the beginning of the bearish trend to be resumed, and
  • 1.3014 resistance level located in the beginning of the bullish reversal to be started.

Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to below for the the most likely bearish trend to be continuing in the near future for example.


  • "The Canadian Dollar experienced a significant bout of strength on Thursday morning after a GDP print for 2Q got people talking. What they were talking about was that another BoC hike could come as soon as the September meeting after a 3.7% expected GDP print came in at 4.5%. This pace of growth in the Canadian Economy is the fastest since 2011."
  • "Another component worth watching that had a +0.98 20-day rolling correlation coefficient, which signals the strength of the relationship, is a tightening between US and CA 2-year yields. You do not have to be well versed in fixed income/ sovereign bonds to see that the two-year yield on a country’s sovereign debt is often treated as a proxy for what the central bankers are expected to do from a monetary policy standpoint. Since May, we have seen the spread between US and CA 2-year yields go from 61 bps in favor of US yields to as tight as 3bps in late July, and after widening in mid-August, the yield spread is narrowing toward the 3bp mark. In other words, the Bank of Canada is expected to be neck-and-neck with the Federal Reserve looking 2-years into the future, but the trend of each central bank’s actions favor the Bank of Canada as being more hawkish and thereby leading the spread and possibly strengthen the CAD further."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.08 17:49

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada's Employment Change and range price movement 

2017-09-08 13:30 GMT | [CAD - Employment Change]

  • past data is 10.9K
  • forecast data is 17.8K
  • actual data is 22.2K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[CAD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month. 

==========

From official report :

  • "Employment was little changed in August (+22,000 or +0.1%). The unemployment rate declined by 0.1 percentage points to 6.2%, matching the most recent low of October 2008, the month prior to the 2008-2009 labour-market downturn."
  • "An increase in the number of people working part time (+110,000) was mostly offset by a decline in the number of people employed full time (-88,000). While the increase in part-time employment was spread across the age groups, most of the decrease in full-time employment occurred for youth aged 15 to 24. The overall employment decline for youth was accompanied by a notable decrease in their labour force participation."

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USD/CAD M5: range price movement by Canada's Employment Change news event 



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.21 09:11

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/CAD: FOMC Fed Funds Rate

2017-09-20 19:00 GMT | [USD - FED Interest Rate Decision]

  • past data is 1.25%
  • forecast data is 1.25%
  • actual data is 1.25% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - FED Interest Rate Decision] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

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From official report :

  • "In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1 to 1-1/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation."

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USD/CAD M5: range price movement by FOMC Fed Funds Rate news events


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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.22 11:06

Trading the News: Canada Consumer Price Index (CPI) (based on the article)

Another uptick in Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) may rattle the near-term rebound in USD/CAD as it puts pressure on the Bank of Canada (BoC) to deliver another rate-hike over the coming months.

What’s Expected:


Why Is This Event Important:

The BoC may continue to implement higher borrowing-costs as ‘the level of GDP is now higher than the Bank had expected,’ and Governor Stephen Poloz and Co. may prepare Canadian households and businesses for another rate-hike at the next meeting on October 25 as the central bank notes that ‘there has been a slight increase in both total CPI and the Bank’s core measures of inflation, consistent with the dissipating negative impact of temporary price shocks and the absorption of economic slack.’

Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased for the first time since January, with the headline reading climbing to an annualized 1.2% from 1.0% the month prior. Nevertheless, the core rate of inflation held steady at 1.4% per annum during the same period, but signs of budding price pressures may encourage the Bank of Canada (BoC) to further normalize monetary policy in 2017 as the central bank warns ‘the factors behind soft inflation appear to be mostly temporary.’ The Canadian dollar rallied followed the print, with USD/CAD slipping below the 1.2600 handle to end the day at 1.2583.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish CAD Trade: Headline & Core Inflation Picks Up in August

  • Need a red, five-minute candle following the report to favor a short USD/CAD trade.
  • If market reaction favors a bullish loonie position, sell USD/CAD with two separate lots.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to breakeven on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit.

Bearish CAD Trade: Canada CPI Falls Short of Market Expectations

  • Need a green, five-minute USD/CAD candle to favor a short loonie position.
  • Implement the same setup as the bullish loonie trade, just in reverse.

USD/CAD Daily


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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.22 14:47

USD/CAD M5: range price movement by Canada Consumer Price Index (CPI) news event 


============

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

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