Forecast and levels for EURO - page 22

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.02.14 17:40

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.S. Consumer Price Index and range price movement 

2018-02-14 13:30 GMT | [USD - CPI]

  • past data is 0.1%
  • forecast data is 0.3%
  • actual data is 0.5% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

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From official report :

  • "The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.1 percent before seasonal adjustment."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Consumer Price Index news event 

EUR/USD M5

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicator:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

EURUSD Daily

EURUSD is retesting the resistance level of 1.2500 away by 25 pips in the timeframe up to daily. The distance between the last time that resistance level being tested and current time is 8 days. What needed to do now is to wait to confirm that EURUSD will either break or bounce that resistance level. I expect the period of time is less than 4 days (8/2).

Edit : The measure of the distance between the last time that resistance level being tested and current time is important because in the daily timeframe it has 8 days. But in the weekly timeframe it has just 1 day and in the monthly timeframe it has no distance. Therefore it is a measure of the strength of that resistance level.
 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.02.16 17:26

EUR/USD - strong bullish trend to be resumed; 1.2510/1.2537 is the key (based on the article)

EUR/USD Daily

  • "The Euro has launched a spirited recovery after finding support near the 1.22 figure against the US Dollar but the resumption of its uptrend is yet to be confirmed. Indeed, near-term price action continues to be defined by a series of lower highs and lows, warning against assuming that upside continuation is necessarily ahead."
  • "A daily close above falling trend line resistance at 1.2492 opens the door for a challenge of the 1.2538-80 area (January 25 high, 38.2% Fibonacci expansion). Alternatively, a move back below the chart inflection point at 1.2364 paves the way for a retest of the February 9 low at 1.2204."

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.02.25 08:29

EUR/USD - ranging near 1.2537 level for the weekly bullish to be continuing (based on the article)

Weekly price broke 100 SMA/200SMA reversal levels for the bullish market codnition. If the price crosses 1.2537 resistance to above on close weekly bar so the primary bullish trend will be continuing, if not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.

EURUSD

  • "Last week, EUR/USD pulled back from the 2008 trend-line in-line with expectations, continuing the theme of weak one week, strong the next, back to weak again. Giving support at its feet and the overall trend the benefit of the doubt, yes, that looks like the most likely outcome. There lies a short-term trend-line from mid-January crossing under Thursday’s low. That could break, though, which wouldn’t be bearish just yet as there is a much more important line of support not far beneath dating back to May 2016."
  • "All-in-all, heading into the new week the euro is still given the benefit of the doubt for another push higher, but should levels start breaking on the downside then the 2008 trend-line may have marked an important high, at least in the intermediate-term."

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The charts were made on MT5 with MA Channel Stochastic system uploaded on this post, and using standard indicators from Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:


 

About 30 working days, EURUSD is traded in a flat. The width of the flat is approximately 310 old points:

Because of this flat we also have a flat for other major currency pairs. To exit the flat, we need a news item (or reason). Next week from February 26 to March 2, 2018 I do not see such serious news (maybe I'm looking wrong). On Friday March 2nd we will not have NonFarm. But on March 4, elections will be held in Italy on Sunday, and then on Monday, perhaps, we will see the way out of this EURUSD flop up or down. Further, a good reason for leaving the flat will be a decision on the interest rate of ECB (that is, on EUR) on March 8. The decision on the interest rate on USD we will have already on March 21. But by this time, I hope, the way out of the flat will already happen.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.03.04 08:51

EUR/USD - daily ranging near bearish reversal levels (based on the article)

Daily price is on ranging near and above Ichimoku cloud on the border with the daily bearish reversal. If the price breaks 1.2154 support to below on the daily close bar so the bearish reversal will be started. 

EURUSD

  • "EUR/USD is coming perilously close to carving out a bearish price sequence in the days ahead. We’ve been discussing quite a bit lately the impact of the 2008 trend-line, and as long as the euro stays below it will struggle. The struggle could turn into an outright sell-off if a bounce soon fails."
  • "The double-top at the 2008 trend-line put into motion the notion we may be seeing a top form at an important line of resistance. And now with EUR/USD possibly putting in a lower-low from earlier last month, in the days ahead the euro may be ready to turn down from the long-term trend-line for an extended period of time."
  • "The trend since last year is still pointed up, but a strong turn down will have important support by way of the 2017 high and trend-line from April come under fire. A solid close below 12100 is seen as a possible catalyst for a sizable unwind by large speculators in the futures market. Positioning has been hovering in record territory for a while and suggests on a turn of trend there will be plenty of fuel to drive the single-currency lower."

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The chart was made on D1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.03.08 17:27

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ECB Interest Rate Statement and range price movement 

2018-03-08 12:45 GMT | [EUR - Minimum Bid Rate]

  • past data is 0.00%
  • forecast data is 0.00%
  • actual data is 0.00% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - Minimum Bid Rate] = Interest rate on the main refinancing operations that provide the bulk of liquidity to the banking system.

==========

From official report :

  • "At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of the net asset purchases."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by ECB Interest Rate Statement news event 

EURUSD

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicator:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.03.11 07:17

EUR/USD - daily ranging near and above the bearish reversal Senkou Span levels (based on the article)

EURUSD

  • "The question to whether the euro is topping or undergoing a healthy correction of course awaits its answer, but there are a couple of signposts to watch. This coming week could go a long way towards getting closer to our answer. Heading into last week, we were looking for a bounce to eventually stall and turn down, putting in a lower-high from the double-top formed around the 2008 trend-line. Following the ECB and Friday NFPs, the decline off the weekly high looks to have cemented a lower-high."
  • "At first glance this could be a bearish development, and while the tone is set for lower prices in the short-term, support in the vicinity of 12150/100 will be quite impactful to the broader outlook. How the euro reacts to support (should it test it) will be telling as to whether the price action dating back to January is corrective or of the topping variety."

============

The chart was made on daily timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.03.13 16:31

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Consumer Price Index and range price movement 

2018-03-13 12:30 GMT | [USD - CPI]

  • past data is 0.5%
  • forecast data is 0.2%
  • actual data is 0.2% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for JPY in our case)

[USD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

==========

From official report :

  • "The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in February on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.5 percent in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.2 percent before seasonal adjustment."

==========

EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Consumer Price Index news event 

EURUSD

==========

The chart was made on M5 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 except the following indicator (free to download):


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.03.14 18:48

There was one high impacted news event: U.S. Core Retail Sales 

Previous value was 0.1% (reviced from the past one), and the actual value was 0.2% which is same or less as forecasting value but anyway - it is more than the previous one.
There were some other high impacted news events on this time so the price was moved to the USD side because.

Example with EUR/USD: the price was bounced from 200-SMA to below for the bearish area of the chart (this is intra-day M5 chart).

EURUSD

Example with the Dollar Index: the price on M5 chart broke 200-SMA to above for the reversal to the bullish market condition with 89.87 resistance level to be testing for the bullish trend to be continuing.

Dollar Index

This is just the example about how the high impacted events can move the price on intra-day basus for example.


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