Forecast and levels for EURO - page 26

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Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2018.06.09 17:09

EUR/USD: Daily Bear Market Rally (based on the article)

EURUSD Daily Chart by Metatrader 5

  • "There is a key zone of support from around 11730 down to 11660, which EURUSD held on several occasions during the latter part of last year. The euro was able to recapture this once strong level of support last week and will be our first zone to watch for a higher-low to develop. "
  • "Should we see buyers step up in the aforementioned zone, we'll be look for at least one more thrust higher towards the 11900/12000-area. A successful test could already be in the rear-view mirror as not only on Friday did the top of the zone hold, but the trend-line off last week's low (most easily visible on the 4-hr chart) provided support as well. Even if the trend-line and Friday low were to break, as long as the low-end of the zone holds, the euro will remain in play for a dip-trip. If an aggressive decline starts to unfold, though, the trend-line extending higher from January 2017 will again come into play, along with the weekly support from 2015/16."
  • "It will be extremely important for those lower support levels to hold to keep the euro from quickly sinking much further. And even if a test and hold is successful at that point, the deeper retracement off the swing-high will take the wind out of the sails for the long-side until further repair can be done."
  • "We should learn a lot as to how the market feels about the euro in the week ahead with the FOMC on Wednesday and, even more importantly, the ECB on Thursday. With higher-than-normal volatility expected next week traders will want to adjust risk parameters accordingly."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.


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Eur/usd forecast

Mauro Giuseppe Tondo, 2018.06.11 13:21

I think it might continue further down.

What are your ideas?
eurusd

Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2018.06.12 10:12

EUR/USD - daily bearish to be continuing; 1.1616 is the key (adapted from the article)

Daily price broke 55-SMA/200-SMA rangingg reversal area for the primary bearish market condition: the price is testing the support level at 1.1616 to below for the bearish trend to be continuing.

EUR/USD daily chart by Metatrader 5 standard indicators

  • "The Euro may be on the verge of resuming the down move started in mid-Mayagainst the US Dollar following a brief corrective upswing. Looking at the four-hour chart, prices are on the verse of clearing counter-trend support after failing to breach resistance in the 1.1821-47 area."
  • "Zooming out to the daily chart, a down move that takes prices back below the 1.1642-1.1723 area marked by the 14.6% and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement levels would open the door for another challenge of the 1.1527-77 zone. This is reinforced by the May 29 low at 1.1510."
  • "The EUR/USD short trade started from 1.2407 and thereafter scaled up near the 1.19 figure continues to be in play with net cost basis of 1.2276. Building out larger exposure upon confirmation of the counter-trend break is compelling but the looming ECB rate decision argues for caution. The trade will remain as-is for now, with a stop-loss to be activated on a discretionary basis."

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with the following custom indicator:


Sergey Golubev
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Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar IndexEUR/USD and USD/CADFed Funds Rate 

2018-06-19 19:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]

  • past data is 1.75%
  • forecast data is 2.00%
  • actual data is 2.00% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

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Dollar Index M15: range price movement by Fed Funds Rate news event 

Dollar Index by MT5

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EUR/USD M15: range price movement by Fed Funds Rate news event 

EUR/USD by MT5

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USD/CAD M15: range price movement by Fed Funds Rate news event 

USD/CAD by MT5

============

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5 and MT4:

  • BrainTrending indicators to download with template.
  • Rules to trade manually
  • How to install  
  • TSD DS jurik BrainTrading system - the key thread 
  • TSD BrainTrading Stochastics system - the post 
  • BrainTrading Semi-Manual EA for M30 timeframe system - the thread 
  • The differences between Brainwashing and BrainTrading system - the post.
The Fed - Meeting calendars and information
  • www.federalreserve.gov
The FOMC holds eight regularly scheduled meetings during the year and other meetings as needed. Links to policy statements and minutes are in the calendars below. The minutes of regularly scheduled meetings are released three weeks after the date of the policy decision. Committee membership changes at the first regularly scheduled meeting of...
Sergey Golubev
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Forecast and levels for EURO

Sergey Golubev, 2018.06.13 21:04

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar IndexEUR/USD and USD/CADFed Funds Rate 

2018-06-19 19:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]

  • past data is 1.75%
  • forecast data is 2.00%
  • actual data is 2.00% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

==========

Dollar Index M15: range price movement by Fed Funds Rate news event 

Dollar Index by MT5

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EUR/USD M15: range price movement by Fed Funds Rate news event 

EUR/USD by MT5

==========

USD/CAD M15: range price movement by Fed Funds Rate news event 

USD/CAD by MT5

============

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5 and MT4:

  • BrainTrending indicators to download with template.
  • Rules to trade manually
  • How to install  
  • TSD DS jurik BrainTrading system - the key thread 
  • TSD BrainTrading Stochastics system - the post 
  • BrainTrading Semi-Manual EA for M30 timeframe system - the thread 
  • The differences between Brainwashing and BrainTrading system - the post.

Sergey Golubev
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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.06.14 15:03

EUR/USD Intra-Day FundamentalsECB Interest Rate and range price movement 

2018-06-14 12:45 GMT | [EUR - ECB Interest Rate]

  • past data is 0.00%
  • forecast data is 0.00%
  • actual data is 0.00% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - ECB Interest Rate] = Interest rate on the main refinancing operations that provide the bulk of liquidity to the banking system.

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From official report :

  • "Third, the Governing Council decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019 and in any case for as long as necessary to ensure that the evolution of inflation remains aligned with the current expectations of a sustained adjustment path."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by ECB Interest Rate news event 

EUR/USD chart by Metatrader 5

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After


Mauro Giuseppe Tondo
1641
Mauro Giuseppe Tondo  

stop sell and buy now



Sergey Golubev
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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.06.17 07:01

EUR/USD - daily bearish breakdown; weekly bearish reversal (based on the article)

EURUSD daily chart by MT5

  • "On Thursday, the ECB's cautious stance on the removal of monetary stimulus sent EUR/USD down sharply, the biggest move in recent memory. This has price support running back to 2015 and the January 2017 trend-line squarely under assault again."
  • "The thinking on this end is that we will see some backing-and-filling in the days ahead as the market digests the impact of Thursday's outcome. This could make for less-than-ideal trading conditions in the very near-term as the euro chops around. Overall, though, the bias right now is that any bounce from here, despite coming from support, is likely to be short-lived."

============

The chart was made on daily timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


Sergey Golubev
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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.06.24 09:54

EUR/USD - daily bearish ranging within 1.1851/1.1507 waiting for direction (based on the article)

EUR/USD daily chart by Metatrader 5

  • "Last week, EUR/USD traded relatively in-line with our tempered expectations – the euro chopped around with little net effect for the week as the ECB-driven move from the Thursday before took time to digest. Overall, a second test of significant support held this past week, keeping sellers at bay for the time-being. Will one side or the other win-out in the days ahead, or will it be another week-long bout of choppy price action? The thinking in this corner is that there will be a little more upside, but it may not be easy, so a continuation of last week's wobbly price action will be unsurprising."
  • "With a bit more strength, the euro will quickly find itself contending with the trend-line running lower from a swing-high in April passing over the high from the ECB-day. This could be enough to put a cap on a bounce and turn the euro back towards another test of support. Should we see a clean closing bar break of 11508, look for an acceleration in selling."

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:


Sergey Golubev
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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.06.28 16:19

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USDGBP/USD and GOLD: U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

2018-06-28 13:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official report :

  • "Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent in the first quarter of 2018 (table 1), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.9 percent."

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EUR/USD M1: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) news events

EUR/USD chart by Metatrader 5

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GBP/USD M15: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) news events

GBP/USD chart by Metatrader 5

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XAU/USD M1: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) news events

GOLD (XAU/USD) chart by Metatrader 5

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread


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