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Forecast and levels for EURO - page 33

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.06.08 13:45

EUR/USD - breakout with daily bullish reversal; 1.1624 is the key (based on the article)

EUR/USD Ichimoku chart by Metatrader 5

  • "The breakout keeps EUR/USD constructive while above confluence support at 1.1187. Subsequent topside resistance objectives at the 61.8% retracement of the 2019 range at 1.1393 and the objective yearly open at 1.1445 – look for a more significant reaction there IF reached. A break / close below 1.1107 would be needed to mark resumption of the broader downtrend."
  • "Bottom line: Euro held long-term slope support for over two months with the breach above channel resistance this week shifting the focus back to the long-side as we head deeper into June trade. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops on a test of the upper targets here. Ultimately, we’ll favor fading weakness while above 1.1187.Review my latest EUR/USD Price Outlook for a closer look at the near-term trading levels."

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The chart was made on daily timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


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Sergey Golubev, 2019.06.21 11:24

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: French Flash Services PMI and range price movement 

2019-06-21 07:15 GMT | [EUR - French Flash Services PMI]

  • past data is 51.5
  • forecast data is 51.6
  • actual data is 53.1 according to the latest press release 
if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - French Flash Services PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the services industry.

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From official report :

  • "Flash France Composite Output Index at 52.9 in June from 51.2 in May (7-month high)."
  • "Flash France Services Activity Index at 53.1 in June (51.5 in May), 7-month high."
  • "Flash France Manufacturing Output Index at 52.0 in June (49.8 in May), 10-month high."
  • "Flash France Manufacturing PMI at 52.0 in June (50.6 in May), 9-month high."

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EUR/USD: range price movement by  French Flash Services PMI news event

EUR/USD: range price movement by French Flash Services PMI news event

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:


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Sergey Golubev, 2019.06.24 14:29

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: German Ifo Business Climate and range price movement 

2019-06-24 08:00 GMT | [EUR - German Ifo Business Climate]

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - German Ifo Business Climate] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, services, and retailers.

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From rttnews article :

  • "Germany's business sentiment weakened to the lowest level in more than four years in June as companies turned increasingly pessimistic about months ahead amid trade wars. The business confidence index dropped more-than-expected to 97.4 in June from 97.9 in May. The score was forecast to fall to 97.5, survey data from the ifo Institute showed Monday. This was the lowest since November 2014, when the reading was 96.1. Companies' assessment of the current situation improved marginally, while their expectations deteriorated further."

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EUR/USD: range price movement by  German Ifo Business Climate news event

EUR/USD: range price movement by German Ifo Business Climate news event

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Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

  1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
  2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
  3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
  4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread


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Sergey Golubev, 2019.06.29 08:53

EUR/USD - Forex Volatility Highlights Next Week; 1.14 is the key (based on  the article)

EUR/USD chart by Metatrader 5

  • "The Euro and US Dollar also look ripe for volatility next week with an update on Germany’s labor market on early Tuesday at 7:55 GMT and the release of the Institute of Supply Management’s US Manufacturing PMI shortly after at 14:00 GMT. According to the 1-week implied volatility reading of 6.28 percent, spot EUR/USD is estimated to fluctuate between 1.1280-1.1478 next week. Technical resistance posed by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the currency pair’s year-to-date trading range near the 1.14 handle, which has previously served as a major confluence level, could keep upside in spot EUR/USD at bay."
  • "EUR/USD price action could be stirred further later in the week as traders react to the closely-monitored US Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) data due for release Friday at 12:30 GMT. Another surprise to the downside following last month’s NFP report will likely echo bullish conviction that appears to have developed since the start of the month. However, an upbeat US jobs report threatens to send EUR/USD swooning with potential to test support at the 1.1300 price level."
  • "That being said, spot EUR/USD performance over the short-term will likely be driven largely by the market’s expectation for the Federal Reserve to make a move on rates. According to overnight swaps, rate traders are currently pricing a 25-basis point reduction in the central bank’s policy interest rate as a near-certainty with an additional 24.0 percent probability of a 50-basis point reduction in Fed’s benchmark policy rate. Consequently, upbeat US economic data risks reducing the market’s expectation that the Fed will cut rates at its next FOMC meeting and bolstering the greenback in turn."

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:


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Sergey Golubev, 2019.07.08 19:38

EUR/USD - possible daily breakdown with the bearish reversal; 1.1207 is the key (based on  the article)

EUR/USD daily Ichimoku chart by Metatrader 5

  • "EUR/USD: Retail trader data shows 64.8% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.84 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 9.2% higher than yesterday and 58.3% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 9.0% higher than yesterday and 32.0% lower from last week."

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The chart was made on daily timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.07.25 13:56

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ECB Interest Rates, Monetary Policy Statement and range price movement 

2019-07-25 11:45 GMT | [EUR - Main Refinancing Rate]

  • past data is 0.00%
  • forecast data is 0.00%
  • actual data is 0.00% according to the latest press release 
if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - Main Refinancing Rate] = Interest rate on the main refinancing operations that provide the bulk of liquidity to the banking system.

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From official report :

  • "At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present or lower levels at least through the first half of 2020, and in any case for as long as necessary to ensure the continued sustained convergence of inflation to its aim over the medium term."

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EUR/USD: range price movement by ECB  Interest Rates news event

EUR/USD: range price movement by ECB Interest Rates news event

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase: 

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


Thanks for the graphics, they are always an excellent contribution to be able to trace, a greeting.

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.08.12 08:15

EUR/USD - daily ranging along the bullish reversal; 1.1249 is the key (based on  the article)

EUR/USD daily Ichimoku chart by Metatrader 5

  • "Prices are now pinned to neckline support-turned-resistance just above the 1.12 mark. A daily close above that faces minor upside barriers at 1.1286 and 1.1348 along the way to a challenge of the June 25 swing top at 1.1412. Alternatively, a move back below 1.1107 paves the way for another probe of the August 1 bottom (and two-year low) at 1.1027."
  • "With near-term positioning looking conflicted once again, reviewing the overall trend bias is useful. The monthly chart points to a broadly bearish bias, with resumption of a more than decade-long EUR/USD downtrend making steady (if modest) headway after a break of support near 1.15 in October 2018. A break below the inflection point at 1.0980 could expose a range floor near 1.05."

============

The chart was made on daily timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.08.26 17:23

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD: United States  Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation

2019-08-26 12:30 GMT | [USD - Core Durable Goods Orders]

  • past data is 1.0%
  • forecast data is -0.2%
  • actual data is -0.4% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Core Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods, excluding transportation items.

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From official report :

  • "New orders for manufactured durable goods in July increased $5.0 billion or 2.1 percent to $250.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today.  This increase, up two consecutive months, followed a 1.8 percent June increase.  Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.4 percent.  Excluding defense, new orders increased 1.4 percent.  Transportation equipment, also up two consecutive months, drove the increase, $5.7 billion or 7.0 percent to $86.3 billion."

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EUR/USD: range price movement by United States  Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation news events

EUR/USD: range price movement by United States Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation news events

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GBP/USD: range price movement by United States  Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation news events 

GBP/USD: range price movement by United States Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation news events

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AUD/USD: range price movement by United States  Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation news events 

AUD/USD: range price movement by United States Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:


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