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Press review - page 582

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
104393
Sergey Golubev  

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/JPY and Dollar Index: Non-Farm Employment Change

2018-01-05 13:30 GMT | [USD - Nonfarm Payrolls]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

USD - Nonfarm Payrolls] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

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From official report :

  • "Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 148,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment gains occurred in health care, construction, and manufacturing."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events


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USD/JPY M5: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events


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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events


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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
104393
Sergey Golubev  

GOLD - daily bullish above high last weekly bar; 1,325 is the key (based on the article)

Daily price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart: the price broke Ichimoku cloud to above for the breakout with the bullish reversal. For now, the price is breaking the resistance level at 1,325 for the bullish trend to be continuing.


  • "Spot Gold: Retail trader data shows 64.5% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.81 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 2.6% lower than yesterday and 12.8% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 5.4% lower than yesterday and 12.7% higher from last week."
  • "We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Spot Gold prices may continue to fall. Positioning is more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed Spot Gold trading bias."

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The chart was made on D1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase:

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
104393
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD - daily bullish breakout (based on the article)

Daily price is on bullish breakout located above Ichimoku cloud: the price is breaking 1.2088 resistance level for the bullish trend to be continuing.


  • "The euro concluded the first week of the year effectively where it started, with see-saw price action dominating trade. The indecision comes as no surprise given where it is currently trading. Last year’s high arriving around the 2012 low led to a fairly lengthy correction."
  • "EUR/USD will need to break above 12092 to further along its move higher. The channel dating back to mid-December keeps the near-term bullish trend structure intact. As long as the lower parallel holds, then it shouldn’t be long before a breakout develops."

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
104393
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: European Union Economic Sentiment Indicator and range price movement 

2018-01-08 10:00 GMT | [EUR - Economic Sentiment Indicator]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - Economic Sentiment Indicator] = Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) is calculated monthly based on the five survey market confidence indices: industrial, service, consumer, construction and retail confidence indices (indices are listed in descending order of weights in ESI calculation).

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From rttnews article :

  • "Eurozone economic confidence strengthened further in December, reaching its highest level seen since late 2000. The economic confidence index rose more-than-expected to 116 from 114.6 in November, survey results from the European Commission showed Monday. This was the highest reading since October 2000 and above the forecast of 114.7."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by European Union Economic Sentiment Indicator news event 


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The charts were made on MT5 with MA Channel Stochastic system uploaded on this post, and using standard indicators from Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:

Eurozone Economic Confidence Strongest Since 2000
Eurozone Economic Confidence Strongest Since 2000
  • www.rttnews.com
Eurozone economic confidence strengthened further in December, reaching its highest level seen since late 2000. The economic confidence index rose more-than-expected to 116 from 114.6 in November, survey results from the European Commission showed Monday. This was the highest reading since October 2000 and above the forecast of 114.7. Industry...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
104393
Sergey Golubev  

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Building Approvals and range price movement 

2018-01-09 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Building Approvals]

  • past data is -0.1%
  • forecast data is -0.9%
  • actual data is 11.7% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Building Approvals] = Change in the number of new building approvals issued.

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From official report :

  • "The trend estimate for total dwellings approved rose 0.9% in November and has risen for 10 months."
  • "The seasonally adjusted estimate for total dwellings approved rose 11.7% in November."

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AUD/USD M1: range price movement by Australia Building Approvals news event 


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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread
8731.0 - Building Approvals, Australia, Nov 2017
  • www.abs.gov.au
NOVEMBER KEY FIGURES NOVEMBER KEY POINTS TOTAL DWELLING UNITS The trend estimate for total dwellings approved rose 0.9% in November and has risen for 10 months. The seasonally adjusted estimate for total dwellings approved rose 11.7% in November. PRIVATE SECTOR HOUSES The trend estimate for private sector houses approved fell 0.1% in...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
104393
Sergey Golubev  

USD/JPY - possible daily breakdown with the bearish reversal (based on the article)

Daily price is on testing the support level at 112.17/112.05 to be reversed to the primary bearish market condition. Chinkou Spam line is breaking the historical price to below for the possible beakdown to be started, and Trend Strength indicator is estimating the trend as the downtrend in the near future.


  • "Traders around the world on Tuesday woke up to a surprise BoJ development that may seem small on absolute terms, but could lead to a broader shift in their Quantitative & Qualitative Easing Program (QQE.). The Bank of Japan’s surprise statement that they will not buy as many long-end bonds as they had been caused investors to be cautious on US notes too. The action sent the US 10Yr note (IG CFD: US 10-Year T-Note) yield to a nine-month high at 2.53% as the inversely related price fell to a nine-month low."
  • "The Japanese Yen, which has been the last currency whose central bank in the G4 is limiting discussions on when they will remove their easing program to support the economy notified markets that they were reducing their purchases of super-long bonds, which caused rate prices to drop and yields to jump. This may be a far cry from a taper announcement, but given that the bond bull market has been supported by fewer central bank buyers, another central bank pulling back could be cause for natural concern."

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The chart was made on D1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase:

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
104393
Sergey Golubev  

McDonald's - strong bullish; 175.73 is the key (based on the article)

Weekly price is on strong bullish market condition by testing the resistance level at 175.73 to above for the primary bullish trend to be continuing.


  • "Over the past few years, McDonald’s has been working aggressively on several initiatives to add healthier products and suit changing customer preferences. These changes have started showing results, with positive comparable sales leading to growth in profits. The company registered a nearly 45% increase in its stock price in 2017. We expect this momentum to continue in 2018 as the company launches several new initiatives to attract both value-conscious and health-conscious customers."
  • "McDonald’s started 2018 by launching its $1, $2, and $3 menu aimed toward its value-conscious customers. While such menus can impact margins adversely, this time around McDonald’s is confident that other cost efficiencies (around marketing and lower fixed costs due to higher traffic) will ensure that its margins remain healthy. The company’s promotions in 2017 around $1 meals have largely been successful, and this menu is likely to drive growth for the company in 2018."

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The chart was made on D1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase:

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
104393
Sergey Golubev  

Crude Oil - bullish breakout; 70 resistance is the key (based on the article)

Daily price is on bullish breakout located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart: the price is testing resistance level at 69.34 together with ascending triangle pattern to above for the bullish trend to be continuing.


  • "In a world where crypto currency momentum seems to defy physics, Crude Oil’s bid does not appear to be purely speculative fervor. Instead, there has been a steady drop in U.S. crude stockpiles backed by refiner demand. The drop in stockpiles has lead to backwardation where front month futures contracts are receiving a premium over later dated future contracts. In a commodity market, backwardation is a way of using the financial market’s collective intelligence to signal market tightening, which is backed by OPEC’s production cuts and steady global demand."
  • "The December 2018 Brent Crude Oil futures contract is currently at a $3.63/bbl premium to the December 2019 contact. The demand is aligning with price support. The irony of the current state of the Oil market is that things are looking too good to some. Iran's Oil Minister, Bijan Namda Zanganeh recently said, "Members of [OPEC] are not keen on increased Brent crude prices above $60/bbl because of shale oil." Prices of Brent Oil's front month contract reached an intraday high of $69.37 on Wednesday."
  • "The message behind the weekly inventory report out of the United States was that the overall petrol glut is continuing to shrink, and has done so for the eighth straight week. The US Crude Inventory drop registered at 4.95m barrels per the EIA. Of course, traders are often looking for the next item to round the corner, and that is looking to individual crude products that refiners have been so aggressively turning into usable products, which are not being sold downstream as fast as an oil bull would hope."

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Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After

  1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
  2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
  3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
  4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread  
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
104393
Sergey Golubev  

Bovespa Index - bullish breakout; 71,441 is the key (based on the article)

Weekly price is on active bullish breakout: the price broke 71,441 resistance level to above in August last year and was moved to 79,895 resistance level trying to break it for the second time for now. If the price breaks this key level so the strong bullish trend will be continuing, otherwise - bullish ranging within the levels.


  • "S&P Global Ratings downgraded the sovereign ratings of Brazil citing less timely and effective policymaking. The agency lowered the ratings to 'BB-' from 'BB', with a stable outlook. The current rating is three notches below the investment grade."
  • "According to S&P, the absence of cohesive political support for corrective economic measures diminishes the prospects for a solid and prompt response following the 2018 elections."

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The chart was made on W1 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 4 except the following indicators (free to download):

S&P Downgrades Brazil's Sovereign Rating
S&P Downgrades Brazil's Sovereign Rating
  • www.rttnews.com
S&P Global Ratings downgraded the sovereign ratings of Brazil citing less timely and effective policymaking. The agency lowered the ratings to 'BB-' from 'BB', with a stable outlook. The current rating is three notches below the investment grade. S&P said Brazil made slower-than-expected progress in putting in place meaningful legislation to...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
104393
Sergey Golubev  

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USDGBP/USD and USD/CNHU.S. Retail Sales

2018-01-12 13:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

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From cnbc article :

  • "U.S. retail sales increased in December as households bought a range of goods and figures for the prior month were revised higher, suggesting the economy exited 2017 with strong momentum."
  • "The Commerce Department said on Friday that retail sales rose 0.4 percent last month. Data for November was revised to show sales gaining 0.9 percent instead of the previously reported 0.8 percent increase."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Retail Sales news events


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GBP/USD M1: range price movement by U.S. Retail Sales news events


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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by U.S. Retail Sales news events


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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5: