GBP/USD forecast for the week of March 2, 2015, Technical Analysis
The GBP/USD pair
initially tried to break out during the course of the week, but found
quite a bit of resistance above the 1.55 handle. This is the top of what
we recognize as the potential consolidation area in this general
vicinity, and as a result we believe that the market is getting ready to
go lower. If we break down lower, and clear the bottom of the range
from the week, we believe that this market should then head to the 1.53
level next, and then possibly the 1.50 handle. This isn’t much of a
surprise though, because of the large, round, psychologically
significant number such as this one is. There is a significant amount of
resistance all the way to the 1.58 handle, so as a result even if we
break above the top of the shooting star, we believe that this market
still cannot be bought until we clear the 1.58 level.
We believe that this market will continue to bang around between the
1.55 handle and the 1.50 level. Because of this, we feel that the market
is one that will be difficult to hang onto for the longer term, but if
you are patient enough and can deal with the volatility, I believe that
this market could offer quite a bit in the way of profit. Even if we
break above the top of the shooting star, it’s only a matter time before
we form another resistive candle as far as we can tell.
If we do break above the 1.58 handle, the more likely pattern will
then be to the 1.60 level. At that level we would anticipate quite a bit
of resistance as well, so really this point in time we don’t have any
interest in buying this pair. The US dollar continues to be the favored
currency by most traders, so of course it will be in this particular
pair as well. Whether or not we can get down below the 1.50 level is a
completely different question, so we aren’t even addressing that at this
EUR/USD forecast for the week of March 2, 2015, Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair
fell hard during the course of the week, closing towards the bottom of
the range. That being the case, looks as if the EUR/USD pair will
probably fall from there, heading to the 1.11 handle next, and then the
1.10 level. Any rally this point time should be a nice selling
opportunity and we believe that the 1.15 level is massively resistive.
We like rallies the show signs of resistance, as it offers value in the
US dollar. If we break down below the 1.10 level, this market could very
well fall to the parity level next.
EUR/USD Monthly Technical Analysis for March 2015
The EUR/USD posted an inside move and lower close during February.
The chart pattern indicates impending volatility and trader indecision,
but with a bias to the downside. The close at 1.1193 indicates the
consolidation around the major Fibonacci level at 1.1211 may be over,
setting the stage for a possible breakdown under the January low at
During February, the market held up considerably well after Greece
agreed to an extension of its bailout agreement with the Euro Zone. Some
of the consolidation was a spillover from January when the European
Central Bank finally announced the long-awaited stimulus plan.
With the Euro Zone still facing growth issues, traders are still
heavily short, so any bottoming action will likely be fueled by
short-covering rather than aggressive buying. The European Central Bank
should leave interest rates unchanged while allowing its stimulus to do
its work so the main focus this month will be on the U.S. Non-Farm
Payrolls report on March 6.
A strong report will be bearish for the EUR/USD because it will bring
the Fed closer to raising rates. Traders are currently pricing in a
potential rate hike in June although Fed Chair Janet Yellen said late
last month that the central bank was in no hurry to raise interest rates
because of a struggling labor market and low inflation.
Weak jobs data won’t necessarily be bullish for the EUR/USD, but it
will encourage position-squaring and short-covering, but any gains will
Technically, the main trend is down on the monthly chart. The close
under the long-term Fibonacci level at 1.1211 indicates weakness. If a
fresh round of selling pressure starts after the U.S. jobs report then
sellers will go after the low for the year at 1.1097. Crossing to the
bearish side of a steep downtrending angle at 1.10793 will put the
market in an extremely weak position.
Forex technical analysis: EURUSD review for February 2015 and preview for March (based on forexlive article)
Greece, settled, traders made a play to the downside on the next to last
trading day of the month. The extension to the downside on February
26th, turned the technical bias to the downside going into the new
EUR/USD weekly outlook: March 2 - 6 (based on investing.com article)
The euro pared back gains against the dollar on Friday after data
showed that the U.S. economy expanded modestly in the final three months
of 2014, supporting expectations for higher interest rates.
The Commerce Department reported that U.S. gross domestic product
grew at an annual rate of 2.2% in the last three months of 2014, down
from an initial estimate of 2.6% but ahead of expectations for a
downward revision to 2.1% growth.
Other reports showed that U.S. pending home sales rose to a
one-and-a-half year high in January and consumer sentiment also remained
The February reading of the University of Michigan's consumer
sentiment index was revised up to 95.4 from the preliminary reading of
93.6. While this was down from the previous month final reading of 98.1,
it was the second highest level since January 2007.
EUR/USD was at one-month lows of 1.1194 in late trade, off earlier highs of 1.1244.
The U.S. dollar index,
which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket
of six major currencies, ended the day almost unchanged at 95.29, not
far from Thursday’s one-month highs of 95.43.
The dollar rallied on Thursday after stronger-than-forecast data on
U.S. durable goods orders added to indications that the economic
recovery is on track.
Earlier in the week, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said that if
the economy keeps improving as the bank expects it will modify its
forward guidance, but emphasized that a modification of its language
should not be read as indicating that a rate hike would automatically
happen within a number of meetings.
EUR/JPY was up 0.15% to 133.9 late Friday, recovering from earlier one-month lows of 133.43.
In the week ahead, Friday’s U.S. employment report will be closely
watched, while Thursday’s European Central Bank monetary policy meeting
will also be in focus.
Monday, March 2
Tuesday, March 3
Wednesday, March 4
Thursday, March 5
Friday, March 6
EUR/USD Drops Below 1.12 (based on marketpulse article)
he dollar edged up on Monday, with an index that tracks the greenback
against major currencies touching an 11-year peak even after soft
The euro, which is off nearly 10 percent in the last three months,
had been up by as much as a third of a percent against the dollar on
Monday but surrendered gains and last traded flat at $1.1192.
The yen went through 120 against the dollar for the first time since
Feb. 12. The dollar was last up 0.50 percent to 120.09 yen, marking a
three-week high for the dollar against the yen. The dollar index was
last up 0.14 percent at 95.427 after earlier going as high as 95.514,
its highest since September 2003.
Euro Exchange Rate: EURGBP and EURUSD Weakness Forecast to Resume
Eurozone inflation rebounded in February
with the annual cost of living standing at -0.3%, up from -0.6% in
January, the EU statistics agency Eurostat said in preliminary data.
Markets had expected a reading of -0.5%; the positive surprise got the shared currency off to a strong start.
Any upside surprises in Eurozone data will have notable impacts on
the EUR owing to the massive amount of negative bets currently placed
against the currency.
Contrast this to the pound sterling which hardly moved in response to March’s positive Manufacturing data.
It will take blow-out positive data surprises to shift the GBP
precisely because the market is so massively aligned behind the
Dennis de Jong, managing director at UFX.com, comments on the EU deflation numbers:
“Mario Draghi would have had his fingers crossed before the consumer
price index figures were released this morning, and though the results
were better than expected, the outlook for Europe is still precarious.
“At least Draghi isn’t alone in fighting deflation. Of the 28
countries in the EU, 23 are officially in deflation and the UK looks
likely to make it 24 in a few weeks’ time. Having already embarked on a
massive bond buying programme, and with interest rates already at
historic lows in many member countries, it’s difficult to see how Draghi
and Co. will be able to escape deflation anytime soon.”
EUR/USD slips close to 11-1/2 year lows on Draghi remarks
On Thursday, Draghi confirmed that the ECB will begin purchasing
euro zone government bonds on March 9 under its new quantitative
The combined asset purchases will amount to €60 billion per
month and are expected to run until September 2016, or until the
ECB sees that inflation is on a "sustained path" to its target of
close to, but below, 2% in the medium term.
In addition, the ECB raised its growth forecast for this year to
1.5% from 1.0% previously, followed by faster growth in 2016 and
But it cut its inflation forecast for 2015, saying it now
expects inflation to be flat, down from 0.7% previously. It then
expects inflation to increase to 1.5% in 2016, up from 1.3% and
1.8% in 2017.
Meanwhile, sentiment on the dollar remained fragile after data
on Thursday showed that the number of Americans who filed for
unemployment assistance rose by 7,000 to 320,000 last week from the
previous week's total of 313,000.
The euro was also lower against the pound, with EUR/GBP edging
down 0.10% to 0.7229.
Later in the day, the U.S. was to release the closely watched
government report on nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate and
Forex Weekly Outlook Mar. 9-13 (based on forexcrunch aricle)
The US dollar had an excellent week, soaring across the
board, most notably against the plunging euro. A rate decision in New
Zealand, Employment figures from Australia and Canada, Retail sales,
PPI, Unemployment claims and Consumer sentiment from the US are the top
events on FX calendar. Let’s see, in detail, the main market movers for this week.
Yet another robust reading from the US job market. The all-important NFP release showed
a strong gain of 295,000 positions in February while and the jobless
rate fell to a 6.5 year low of 5.5%. The disappointment came from slow
wage growth. This raises the chances of a rate hike in June. This boosted the dollar across the board. In the euro-zone, Draghi showed determination on implementing QE, and the euro plunged. The pound followed suit. Elsewhere, an upbeat BOC helped CAD, while no cut from the RBA kept AUD bid. All was lost when the NFP numbers came in.