Press review - page 586

Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

Nikkei - strong bullih on medium term; 24,121 resistance is the key (based on the article)

Weekly medium-term price is on bullish breakout: the price is testing resistance level at 24,121 resistance level to above for the primary bullish trend to be continuing.


  • "The Tokyo stock benchmark remains in the robust uptrend channel which has contained trade since October 27 last year. That channel encompasses this week’s rise to new 26-year highs. Incidentally that rise seems to have validated a channel top which, without it, might have looked a little spurious."
  • "November 9’s intraday high used to mark not only that channel top but the only foray toward it since the formation was initiated. However, January’s peaks have so far respected the uptrend from that November 9 top, making it look a whole lot more valid."

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The chart was made on W1 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 4 except the following indicators (free to download):

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The Tokyo stock benchmark remains in the robust uptrend channel which has contained trade since October 27 last year. That channel encompasses this week’s rise to new 26-year highs. Incidentally that rise seems to have validated a channel top which, without it, might have looked a little spurious. November 9’s intraday high used to mark not...
Sergey Golubev
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113476
Sergey Golubev  

Bitcoin Is A 'Typical Bubble' (based on the article)

Daily price is located near and above 100 SMA/200 SMA bearish reversal area.

If the price breaks 13,881 resistance to above so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If the price breaks 8,771 support level to below so the bearish reversal will be started.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.


  • "Legendary investor George Soros joined a chorus of well-known investors calling bitcoin a bubble this week, making his remarks in a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland Thursday."
  • "Cryptocurrency is a misnomer and is a typical bubble, which is always based on some kind of misunderstanding," the financier and founder of the $26 billion Soros Fund Management said.
  • "Bitcoin is not a currency because a currency is supposed to be a stable store of value and the currency that can fluctuate 25% in a day can’t be used for instance to pay wages because wages drop by 25% in a day. It’s a speculation. Based on a misunderstanding," he added

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The chart was made on D1 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 except the following indicator (free to download):

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

USD/JPY Intra-Day FundamentalsTokyo CPI Ex Fresh Food and range price movement 

2018-01-25 23:30 GMT | [JPY - Tokyo Core CPI]

  • past data is 0.8%
  • forecast data is 0.8%
  • actual data is 0.7% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for JPY in our case)

[JPY - Tokyo Core CPI] = Interest rate at which major financial institutions borrow and lend overnight funds between themselves.

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From rttnews article :

  • "Overall nationwide consumer prices in Japan gained 1.0 percent on year in December, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said on Friday."
  • "Tokyo's core CPI gained 0.7 percent on year in January - shy of expectations for 0.8 percent, which would have been unchanged."

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USD/JPY M5: range price movement by Tokyo CPI Ex Fresh Food news event 


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The chart was made on M5 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 except the following indicator (free to download):

Statistics Bureau Home Page/Consumer Price Index Latest Monthly Results
  • www.stat.go.jp
is "Portal Site of Official Statistics of Japan" (external site) where you can browse statistics tables and database. Summary   The consumer price index for Japan in December 2017 was 101.2 (2015=100), up 1.0% over the year before seasonal adjustment, and up 0.2% from the previous month on a seasonally adjusted basis.   The consumer price index...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

GOLD - intra-day ranging bullish; 1,332/1,326 for the intra-day bearish reversal (based on the article)

The price on H4 chart is above Ichimoku cloud for the bullish ranging within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 1,365 resistance level located in the beginning of the bullish trend to be resumed, and
  • 1,342 support level located in the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend to be started.

If the price breaks 1,342 level to below so the next support levels are 1,332/1,326 for the intra-day bearish reversal


  • "The gold price trends have been sloppy since December 2016. That sloppy behavior is evidence of a three-wave move, a correction. Therefore, the current increase in gold prices may not last long."
  • "The break above $1357 eliminates the near term triangle possibility and indicates the rise since December 2016 is a large ‘B’ wave. ‘B’ waves tend to be sucker waves that are sloppy and overlapping and the trend for the past year fits that description. The Elliott Wave analysis calls for gold prices to remain below $1465."
  • "Our gold price forecast is for a bearish reversal to occur between now and $1465. Though that is a large region, we can use simple technical analysis to help us enter into the bearish reversal. For example, a break below $1306 would begin to carve a lower low in gold prices. A successful move below $1306 will allow us to analyze the charts for a bearish 5-3 wave sequence. The bearish 5-3 wave pattern would allow us to use the swing high as a risk level."

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The chart was made on H4 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

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Gold prices recently hit their highest level in 17 months. According to the Elliott Wave principle, this recent break above $1357 indicates we are in a big ‘B’ wave with a gold price forecast of a bearish reversal occurring soon. The gold price trends have been sloppy since December 2016. That sloppy behavior is evidence of a three-wave move...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

Intra-Day Fundamentals - GBP/USD, USD/CAD and Brent Crude Oil: U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 

2018-01-26 13:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]

  • past data is 3.2%
  • forecast data is 3.0%
  • actual data is 2.6% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official report :

  • "Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2017 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.2 percent."

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GBP/USD M1: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)  news events


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USD/CAD M1: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)  news events


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Brent Crude Oil M1: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)  news events


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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

News Release: Gross Domestic Product
News Release: Gross Domestic Product
  • www.bea.gov
* See the navigation bar at the right side of the news release text for links to data tables, contact personnel and their telephone numbers, and supplementary materials.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD - weekly bullish breakout (based on the article)

Weekly price was bounced from 1.1717 support level to above for the bullish breakout: the price is testing resistance level at 1.2323 for the bullish trend to be continuing.


  • "Is the euro there yet; that is, has it arrived at a point where it could undergo a correction, or worse? It’s certainly in an area where a turnaround could develop. There is a trend-line running down from the top in 2008, clocking in around the current vicinity to a little higher. For a time-frame this long, you need to pull out the monthly chart and use a crayon versus a pencil to draw the trend-line. When you look at this way, then EUR/USD is trading up against a critical spot near the 12600-handle. "
  • "On Thursday, we saw a strong key-reversal bar carved out. If the high of the candlestick at 12537 isn’t soon overcome, look for the euro to begin trading lower in the days ahead. These types of powerful reversals tend to lead to turnarounds fairly quickly, however; in the event EUR/USD moves sideways, with each passing day, the likelihood increases that we’ll see a breakout above."

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

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Is the euro there yet; that is, has it arrived at a point where it could undergo a correction, or worse? It’s certainly in an area where a turnaround could develop. There is a trend-line running down from the top in 2008, clocking in around the current vicinity to a little higher. For a time-frame this long, you need to pull out the monthly...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

The Week Ahead - bullish breakout (based on the article)

Weekly price is on bullish breakout by 2,813 weekly resistance level to be crossing for the primary bullish trend to be continuing.


  • "The first four weeks of 2018 have turbocharged the interest in the stock market as the fund flows have broken records. Since the start of the year $58 billion as moved into stock mutual fund and EFTs according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch."
  • "The last sell signal was in March 2013 when the S&P 500 had a range of 1485-1570. By May it had reached a high of 1687. There was then a 7.5%, five week correction, before it again turned higher and it never dropped below 1536. It finished the year at 1841 as it gained over 17% from the end of March so I am not sure that qualifies as a good sell signal."
  • "Last week both the Dow Industrials and S$P 500 were up over 2% while the small cap Russell 2000 was only up 0.65%. The big loser was the Dow Transports which dropped 1.59%. Health care was the leading sector up 3.8% and the Viper ETF favorite Vanguard Health Care (VHT) was up 3.75%)."

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The chart was made on H4 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar Index (based on the article)


Dollar Index - "The US Dollar continues to face heavy selling pressure, falling for a seventh consecutive week against its major counterparts. That is the longest losing streak in over 13 years. The currency seems to have become a victim of its own success: starting in 2014, the greenback enjoyed three years of gains as the Fed tightened policy while its G10 peers lagged behind. Now, a rosy global growth outlook is inspiring catch-up bets."

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Chart was made on MT4 using iFibonacci indicator and MaksiGen_Range_Move indicator from CodeBase (free to download).

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The US Dollar continues to face heavy selling pressure, falling for a seventh consecutive week against its major counterparts. That is the longest losing streak in over 13 years. The currency seems to have become a victim of its own success: starting in 2014, the greenback enjoyed three years of gains as the Fed tightened policy while its G10...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GBP/USD (based on the article)


GBP/USD - "We remain fundamentally positive on GBP - as we have for the past couple of weeks - and look for further gains ahead, although the velocity of movement may slow down with Sterling currently sitting at relatively lofty levels. The latest set of data releases have seen inflation inched down – from 3.1% to 3% - while average UK wage growth nudged a touch higher - to 2.4% from 2.3%. While UK real wages remain negative, any narrowing of the inflation/wages gap will be welcome, especially by the weak retail sector. In addition the latest quarterly GDP release showed the UK economy expanding by an above expectation 0.5%, driven by a strong showing from the dominant services sector."

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Chart was made on MT4 using iFibonacci indicator and MaksiGen_Range_Move indicator from CodeBase (free to download).

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The latest set of data releases have seen inflation inched down – from 3.1% to 3% - while average UK wage growth nudged a touch higher - to 2.4% from 2.3%. While UK real wages remain negative, any narrowing of the inflation/wages gap will be welcome, especially by the weak retail sector. In addition the latest quarterly GDP release showed the...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/JPY (based on the article)


USD/JPY - "Keep in mind, the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is also due out next week, with employment anticipated to increase 183K in January, while Average Hourly Earnings are projected to pick up during the same period. Hawkish Fed rhetoric paired with signs of stronger job/wage growth may generate a rebound in USD/JPY, but recent price action keeps the near-term outlook tilted to the downside as the pair snaps the range from earlier this month, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) flashes the most extreme reading since 2016."

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Chart was made on MT4 using iFibonacci indicator and MaksiGen_Range_Move indicator from CodeBase (free to download).

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USD/JPY extends the decline from earlier this month, with the pair at risk of testing the 2017-low (107.32) as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to retain the current policy at its first meeting for 2018. er than they currently expected,’ and more of the same from Fed officials may keep dollar-yen under pressure as...