Press review - page 650

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/JPY - bearish ranging; 105.04 is the key (based on the article)

• "The Japanese Yen remains the beneficiary of a broad fundamental haven bid against the US Dollar with USDJPY bulls’ current modest fightback unlikely to last. The pair got a boost on Tuesday of this week when the Trump administration indicated that some tariffs against China could be delayed."
• "However, much of that rise has already been retraced and the Dollar remains very close to lows not seen since March 2018 if the ‘flash crash low of 104.68 hit on January 2 this year is ignored. If as currently seems likely the pair is indeed topping out again, support can be expected at those previous significant low. That come in at 105.05. Should they give way in turn, then more interesting and possibly resilient support lies below it at 104.65."

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with the following indicator from CodeBase: 

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, GOLD (XAU/USD) and USD/CNH: United States Retail Sales

2019-08-15 12:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]

• past data is 0.3%
• forecast data is 0.3%
• actual data is 0.7% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

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From official report :

• "Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July 2019, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $523.5 billion, an increase of 0.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and 3.4 percent (±0.7 percent) above July 2018. Total sales for the May 2019 through July 2019 period were up 3.3 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The May 2019 to June 2019 percent change was revised from up 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent)* to up 0.3 percent (±0.1 percent)."
• "Retail trade sales were up 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) from June 2019, and 3.4 percent (±0.7 percent) above last year. Nonstore retailers were up 16.0 percent (±1.4 percent) from July 2018, miscellaneous stores were up 6.0 percent (±4.6 percent) from last year."

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Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by United States Retail Sales news events

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GOLD (XAU/USD): range price movement by United States Retail Sales news events

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USD/CNH: range price movement by  United States Retail Sales news events

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Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Vortex - indicator for MetaTrader 5

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread 

[Sergey Golubev]

Crypto News - Bitcoin: daily ranging near bullish reversal; weekly bullish with symmetric triangle pattern for direction (based on the article)

• "On August 6, Bitcoin rallied to 12,318 however, the price slipped back after, then settled below 12,000 handle. This week, BTC/USD traded lower and tested yesterday 9,484 - its lowest level in over two weeks. Alongside this, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) crossed below 50 however, the oscillator remained flat around 44 reflecting the seller’s indecision to keep sending the price lower." 
• "Looking at the daily chart, we notice yesterday Bitcoin declined to its lowest level since the start of August however, the cryptocurrency rallied after then closed in the higher trading zone 10,300 – 12,320. Thus, a close above the high end of the zone could push the price towards the high end. Nonetheless, the daily resistance levels and area marked on the chart (zoomed in) need to be considered. On the flip-side, a close below the low end could press the price to test 9500 again. Although, the daily support level at 9,940 needs to be monitored. Further close below 9500 may send BTC/USD towards the monthly support at 9080. See the chart to know more about the lower trading zone/s with weekly support levels in a further bearish scenario."

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand Producer Price Index (PPI) Input and range price movement  

2019-08-18 22:45 GMT | [NZD - PPI Input]

• past data is -0.9%
• forecast data is -0.6%
• actual data is 0.3% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - PPI Input] = Change in the price of goods and raw materials purchased by manufacturers.

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From rttnews article :

• "Producer price inputs in New Zealand were up 0.3 percent on quarter in the second quarter of 2019, Statistics New Zealand said on Monday - following the 0.9 percent drop in the three months prior."
• "Producer price outputs advanced 0.5 percent on quarter after sliding 0.5 percent in the previous three months."
  

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NZD/USD: range price movement by New Zealand Producer Price Index (PPI) Input news event 

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada  Consumer Price Index (CPI) and range price movement 

2019-08-21 12:30 GMT | [CAD - CPI]

• past data is -0.2%
• forecast data is 0.1%
• actual data is 0.5% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

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From official report :

• "The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.0% on a year-over-year basis in July, matching the increase in June. Prices increased year over year in all eight major components."
• "On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.4% in July, following a 0.1% decline in June."

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USD/CAD: range price movement by Canada CPI news event 

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• AbsoluteStrengthMarket - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/JPY - bearish ranging within 105/107 support/resistance levels (based on the article)

• "Looking at the daily chart, we notice at the start of this week USD/JPY opened with an upward gap, since then the pair has been moving ineffectively reflecting the market’s indecision. Currently, the price is moving in the trading zone 105.50 – 107.30 and eyes a test of the high end of the zone, contingent on overtaking the 107.00 handle."
• "Thus, a close above the high end could push USDJPY towards 108.61. Although, the weekly resistance levels and area marked on the chart (zoomed in) should be kept in focus."
• "On the other hand, a close below the low end may send the USDJPY towards 104.77 however, the weekly support area underlined on the chart needs to be watched closely. Further close below 104.77 could press the price even lower towards 103.07. The weekly support levels should be considered."

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

Using Price Action As Your First Indicator (based on the article)

• Price action is the study or analysis of price movement in the market. Traders use price action to form opinions and base decisions on trends, key price levels and suitable risk management. Trend identification is frequently utilized as the initial step in price action trading. All other facets to price action indicators require a trend basis to begin price action analysis.
• Technical analysis setups generally begin with price action as the initial form of evaluation. The first thing to remember when using an indicator is that it is a function of price action. The indicator itself is not the ultimate tool when it comes to trading, but rather comes in behind price action. Price action governs the information that the indicator will ultimately provide on the chart. As such, a trader must determine what price action is doing (i.e. the trend) before consulting the indicator for an entry signal. Once the trend is determined, the trader can then consult the indicator for an entry signal in the direction of the trend.Traders trade on the price movement of an instrument therefore, the focus is on the change in price as opposed to the change in indicator value. Some traders base trading decisions and analysis purely on price action whilst other prefer a combination of price action and technical indicators which serve as a support system.
• Technical indicators are derivatives of price action - price action governs the information that indicators provide on the chart. These indicators are calculated using varying periodic price data which provide substantiation for entry, exit, and stop distance criteria. Trend identification is also important in market analysis to ascertain how the market is functioning on a holistic scale (time frame dependent).
• Price action is a broad technical analysis technique that incorporates various trading strategies which traders apply to analyze the markets. Technical indicators work well in conjunction with price action to allow traders to formulate more accurate trade decisions.

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video :

• How to trade Head and Shoulders in Forex
• How to Trade the Head and Shoulders Pattern Part 1
• How to Trade the Head and Shoulders Pattern Part 2

[Sergey Golubev]

Crude Oil - bearish trend to be resumed; 55.86 is the key (based on  the article)

• "Crude oil prices sank over 1.5% this past week in choppy trading. I noted early last Tuesday that crude oil prices were showing signs of weakness as volatility climbed amid lingering US-China trade war uncertainty as Jackson Hole loomed. Surely enough, the expectation came to fruition as bearish fundamentals aligned with a technical backdrop that pointed to the possibility of sustained selling pressure."
• "Evidence of waning bullish prospects for crude oil prices from a technical standpoint is also suggested by the wilting RSI as the indicator dipped back below 50 and looks to continue its overarching trend lower since April. Moreover, the struggle to reclaim the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages may keep a lid on any rebound attempt."

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD: United States  Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation

2019-08-26 12:30 GMT | [USD - Core Durable Goods Orders]

• past data is 1.0%
• forecast data is -0.2%
• actual data is -0.4% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Core Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods, excluding transportation items.

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From official report :

• "New orders for manufactured durable goods in July increased $5.0 billion or 2.1 percent to $250.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today.  This increase, up two consecutive months, followed a 1.8 percent June increase.  Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.4 percent.  Excluding defense, new orders increased 1.4 percent.  Transportation equipment, also up two consecutive months, drove the increase, $5.7 billion or 7.0 percent to $86.3 billion."

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EUR/USD: range price movement by United States  Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation news events

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GBP/USD: range price movement by United States  Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation news events 

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AUD/USD: range price movement by United States  Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation news events 

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• AbsoluteStrengthMarket - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Private Capital Expenditure and range price movement 

2019-08-29 01:30 GMT | [AUD - Private Capital Expenditure]

• past data is -1.3%
• forecast data is 0.4%
• actual data is -0.5% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Private Capital Expenditure] = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of new capital expenditures made by private businesses.

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From official report :

• "The trend estimate for total new capital expenditure fell by 0.7% in the June quarter 2019 while the seasonally adjusted estimate fell by 0.5%."

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AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia Private Capital Expenditure news event 

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• BrainTrend2Sig indicator from Codebase (free to download)
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• CronexChaikin - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Color Parabolic 2 - indicator for MetaTrader 5

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

• BrainTrending indicators to download with template.
• Rules to trade manually
• How to install