Press review - page 322

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113479
Sergey Golubev  

Gold Prices Close Higher on Weaker Dollar (adapted from wsj article)

Gold prices edged higher Tuesday, boosted by a weaker dollar.

Gold for August delivery, the most actively traded contract, closed up 0.5% at $1,194.40 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The possibility of a deal between Greece and its creditors boosted the euro against the dollar Tuesday, with the single currency gaining 2.1% to $1.1161, its highest level in almost two weeks. Stronger-than-expected eurozone consumer price data for May helped the euro extend its gains. A softer dollar is good news for gold, which is priced in the U.S. currency and becomes more affordable for foreign buyers when the greenback weakens.

“The falling dollar has been the main mover for gold today,” said George Gero, a senior vice president with RBC Capital Markets Global Futures. “There is a good potential for a Greek deal this week, which would signify more euro strength and more upside for gold.”

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113479
Sergey Golubev  

Goldman Sachs - Get Ready For The Next Leg Lower In EUR/USD (based on efxnews article)

"Conviction levels that the Euro can resume its downtrend are as low as we can remember. Most see the single currency in a range near current levels, with the current account surplus, the rise in oil prices and valuation preventing another meaningful leg lower. We do not think it is these things that are at play; in fact, we disagree with each of them on a conceptual level."

The current account: "exchange rates, like other market prices, are forward looking. They reflect expectations for the future, including the likely level of the current account. The mere presence of a current account surplus (or deficit) therefore does not mean that a currency strengthens (or weakens), because this is already in the price. Instead, what matters is the delta, i.e. whether the current account comes in stronger or weaker than expected... The net effect, in delta terms, looks unclear to us – our European team forecast a stable current account surplus through 2015/16 – and likely EUR/$ neutral."

The rise in oil prices: "core inflation in the Euro area was trending down long before the drop in oil prices, a reflection of structural reforms on the periphery (that aim to improve competitiveness through internal devaluation) and large output gaps. Core HICP is likely to stay near current levels in coming months, even as headline inflation rebounds further, and this is likely to see the ECB shift its focus back to core (away from headline). This should see EUR/$ weaken."

Valuation: "the Euro is now arguably cheap on some metrics. Indeed, GSDEER says that fair value for EUR/$ is 1.22, so that we are currently in “cheap” territory for the first time in many years. In our minds, fair value only matters if it acts as an attractor, i.e. if it means that it exerts a force of gravity when EUR/$ undershoots it. There is no empirical evidence that this is the case. In fact, the only thing that is clear about fair value models is that exchange rates in practice over- or undershoot them, but never converge to them. We again see this discussion as a sideshow for EUR/$."
SasukeUchicha
15
SasukeUchicha  
Did anyone get burnt by todays GBP crash. I have only being trading live for about 3 weeks. Lost over 80% of my trading capital. My fault entirely. Had being up by over 50% on my initial investment until then. To be honest it was my fault. I have developed the bad or destructive habit of trading without a stop loss. Funny thing was that it happened in second. Right in front of my eyes. I was only lucky the server closed the trade before it totally wiped me out. Still bullish on my chances of making it. But I now know I must proceed with caution and avoid data releases like a plauge
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113479
Sergey Golubev  
2015-06-03 13:30 GMT (or 15:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Trade Balance]
  • past data is -51.4B
  • forecast data is -43.9B
  • actual data is -40.9B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month. Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports. Export demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers.

==========

"The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $40.9 billion in April, down $9.7 billion from $50.6 billion in March, revised. April exports were $189.9 billion, $1.9 billion more than March exports. April imports were $230.8 billion, $7.8 billion less than March imports."

"The April decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of $9.3 billion to $60.7 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.4 billion to $19.8 billion."

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113479
Sergey Golubev  

AUDIO - FX Rundown with Scott Greer

Merlin welcomes Scott Greer, in a show packed with charts and analysis. The duo covers the US Dollar, Euro, Pound, Yen, Aussie and much more! Scott also offers up a trade set-up he is watching, and may trigger any moment!


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113479
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Aiming Above 1.13 Figure (based on dailyfx article)

  • EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
  • Support: 1.1202, 1.1005, 1.0818
  • Resistance: 1.1320, 1.1439, 1.1585



The Euro rebounded against the US Dollar as expected having produced a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern. A daily close above the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 1.1320 exposes the 61.8% level at 1.1439. Alternatively, a turn below the 38.2% Fib at 1.1202 opens the door for a challenge of the 1.1005-55 area (23.6% expansion, horizontal pivot).

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113479
Sergey Golubev  

Australia April Trade Deficit A$3.888 Billion Trade (adapted from rttnews article)

Australia posted a merchandise trade deficit of A$3.888 billion in April, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday - or down 216 percent from the previous month.

AUDUSD M5: 63 pips price movement by AUD - Trade Balance news event:

        

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113479
Sergey Golubev  

Gold Sinks to Three-Week Low on Greece Hopes, Stock Gains (adapted from wsj article)

Gold prices fell to their lowest level in three weeks on Wednesday as optimism about a positive outcome to Greece’s financial problems and gains in stocks weighed on investor interest for havens like precious metals. 

“We are a few days, or I could even say a few hours, away from a resolution,” French President François Hollande said at a conference in Paris.

“Some people are just getting out of this market to avoid the volatility and paring back positions until they get a clearer understanding,” said Frank Lesh, a broker and futures analyst with FuturePath Trading in Chicago. “Just because Greece gets a deal now doesn’t mean that their problems are solved.”

“The stock market is still up and strong and siphoning money away from gold to stocks,” said George Gero, a senior vice president with RBC Capital Markets Global Futures. 

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113479
Sergey Golubev  

GBP and EUR gain while USD suffers as bond rout continues

GBPUSD has just broken 1.5400 to a 1.5415 high and EURUSD sprints to 1.1375 as USDJPY tumbles below 124.00 to 123.78

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113479
Sergey Golubev  

Gold Down, Hits 4-Week Low; Gets No Support from Sell-Off in USDX (based on kitco article)

"Gold prices ended the U.S. day session moderately lower and hit a four-week low Wednesday. The U.S. dollar index dropped from its overnight highs to trade lower during the U.S. session, but gold and silver bulls got no benefit. The bearish technical postures for gold and silver markets are keeping the sellers in control. August Comex gold was last down $10.30 at $1,184.10 an ounce. July Comex silver was last down $0.329 at $16.47 an ounce."

"Technically, August gold futures prices closed nearer the session low and hit a four-week low today. Gold bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $1,204.70. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the May low of $1,170.00. First resistance is seen at $1,190.00 and then at today’s high of $1,195.60. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,179.10 and then at $1,170.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 2.5 "