Gold Prices Close Higher on Weaker Dollar (adapted from wsj article)
Gold prices edged higher Tuesday, boosted by a weaker dollar.
for August delivery, the most actively traded contract, closed up 0.5%
at $1,194.40 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York
The possibility of a deal between Greece and its creditors
boosted the euro against the dollar Tuesday, with the single currency
gaining 2.1% to $1.1161, its highest level in almost two weeks.
Stronger-than-expected eurozone consumer price data
for May helped the euro extend its gains. A softer dollar is good news
for gold, which is priced in the U.S. currency and becomes more
affordable for foreign buyers when the greenback weakens.
“The falling dollar has been the main mover for gold today,” said George Gero,
a senior vice president with RBC Capital Markets Global Futures. “There
is a good potential for a Greek deal this week, which would signify
more euro strength and more upside for gold.”
Goldman Sachs - Get Ready For The Next Leg Lower In EUR/USD (based on efxnews article)
"Conviction levels that the Euro can resume its downtrend are as
low as we can remember. Most see the single currency in a range near
current levels, with the current account surplus, the rise in oil prices
and valuation preventing another meaningful leg lower. We do not think
it is these things that are at play; in fact, we disagree with each of
them on a conceptual level."
The current account: "exchange rates, like other
market prices, are forward looking. They reflect expectations for the
future, including the likely level of the current account. The mere
presence of a current account surplus (or deficit) therefore does not
mean that a currency strengthens (or weakens), because this is already
in the price. Instead, what matters is the delta, i.e. whether the
current account comes in stronger or weaker than expected... The net
effect, in delta terms, looks unclear to us – our European team forecast
a stable current account surplus through 2015/16 – and likely EUR/$ neutral."
The rise in oil prices: "core inflation in the Euro
area was trending down long before the drop in oil prices, a reflection
of structural reforms on the periphery (that aim to improve
competitiveness through internal devaluation) and large output gaps.
Core HICP is likely to stay near current levels in coming months, even
as headline inflation rebounds further, and this is likely to see the
ECB shift its focus back to core (away from headline). This should see EUR/$ weaken."
if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month. Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners
must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports. Export
demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers.
"The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $40.9 billion in April, down $9.7 billion from $50.6 billion in March, revised. April exports were $189.9 billion, $1.9 billion more than March exports. April imports were $230.8 billion, $7.8 billion less than March imports.""The April decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of $9.3 billion to $60.7 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.4 billion to $19.8 billion."
AUDIO - FX Rundown with Scott Greer
Merlin welcomes Scott Greer, in a show packed with charts and analysis. The duo covers the US Dollar, Euro, Pound, Yen, Aussie and much more! Scott also offers up a trade set-up he is watching, and may trigger any moment!
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Aiming Above 1.13 Figure (based on dailyfx article)
The Euro rebounded against the US Dollar as expected having produced a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern. A daily close above the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 1.1320 exposes the 61.8% level at 1.1439. Alternatively, a turn below the 38.2% Fib at 1.1202 opens the door for a challenge of the 1.1005-55 area (23.6% expansion, horizontal pivot).
Australia April Trade Deficit A$3.888 Billion Trade (adapted from rttnews article)
Australia posted a merchandise trade deficit of A$3.888 billion in April, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday - or down 216 percent from the previous month.
AUDUSD M5: 63 pips price movement by AUD - Trade Balance news event:
Gold Sinks to Three-Week Low on Greece Hopes, Stock Gains (adapted from wsj article)
Gold prices fell to their lowest level in three weeks on Wednesday as optimism about a positive outcome to Greece’s financial problems and gains in stocks weighed on investor interest for havens like precious metals.
“We are a few days, or I could even say a few hours, away from a resolution,” French President François Hollande said at a conference in Paris.
“Some people are just getting out of this market to avoid the volatility and paring back positions until they get a clearer understanding,” said Frank Lesh, a broker and futures analyst with FuturePath Trading in Chicago. “Just because Greece gets a deal now doesn’t mean that their problems are solved.”
“The stock market is still up and strong and siphoning money away from gold to stocks,” said George Gero, a senior vice president with RBC Capital Markets Global Futures.
GBP and EUR gain while USD suffers as bond rout continues
GBPUSD has just broken 1.5400 to a 1.5415 high and EURUSD sprints to 1.1375 as USDJPY tumbles below 124.00 to 123.78
Gold Down, Hits 4-Week Low; Gets No Support from Sell-Off in USDX (based on kitco article)
"Gold prices ended the U.S. day session moderately lower and hit a
four-week low Wednesday. The U.S. dollar index dropped from its
overnight highs to trade lower during the U.S. session, but gold and
silver bulls got no benefit. The bearish technical postures for gold
and silver markets are keeping the sellers in control. August Comex gold
was last down $10.30 at $1,184.10 an ounce. July Comex silver was last
down $0.329 at $16.47 an ounce.""Technically, August gold futures prices closed nearer the session low
and hit a four-week low today. Gold bears have the firm overall
near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside near-term price
breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at this week’s high of $1,204.70. Bears' next near-term
downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid
technical support at the May low of $1,170.00. First resistance is seen
at $1,190.00 and then at today’s high of $1,195.60. First support is
seen at today’s low of $1,179.10 and then at $1,170.00. Wyckoff’s
Market Rating: 2.5 "