Forecast and levels for USD/CNH - page 7

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.02.27 18:19

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, AUD/USD and USD/CNH: U.S. Durable Goods Orders

2018-02-27 13:30 GMT | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]

  • past data is 2.8%
  • forecast data is -2.4%
  • actual data is -3.7% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods.

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From rttnews article :

  • "After reporting a bigger than expected jump in orders for U.S. manufactured durable goods in the previous month, the Commerce Department released a report on Tuesday showing durable goods orders pulled back by more than expected in January."
  • "The Commerce Department said durable goods orders plunged by 3.7 percent in January after surging up by a revised 2.6 percent in December."
  • Andrew Hunter, U.S. Economist at Capital Economics, said, "Looking ahead, although some measures of capex intentions remain at a high level, the latest business surveys point to a further slowdown in underlying durable goods orders. That said, with the strong global backdrop set to continue benefiting manufacturers and the recent tax cuts likely to provide some further support, we still expect business investment to expand at a healthy pace over 2018 as a whole."

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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events


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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events


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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by by Durable Goods Orders news events


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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

BrainTrending indicators to download with template.

Rules to trade manually

How to install


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.03.05 08:09

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: Caixin Services PMI and range price movement 

2018-03-05 01:45 GMT | [CNY - Caixin Services PMI]

  • past data is 54.7
  • forecast data is 54.3
  • actual data is 54.2 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Caixin Services PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the services industry.

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From official report :

  • "The Caixin China Composite PMI™ data (which covers both manufacturing and services) signalled a further strong rise in overall Chinese business activity in February, despite the pace of expansion softening since January. At 53.3 in February, the Composite Output Index fell only slightly from a seven-year record of 53.7 at the start of the year."

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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by Caixin Services PMI news event 

USDCNH

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicator:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.04.02 07:22

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: Caixin Manufacturing PMI and range price movement 

2018-04-02 02:45 GMT | [CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI]

  • past data is 51.6
  • forecast data is 51.8
  • actual data is 51.0 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

==========

From official report :

  • "Chinese manufacturing companies signalled only a marginal improvement in overall operating conditions at the end of the first quarter. Production and total new orders both expanded at the weakest rates for four months, while export sales increased only marginally. At the same time, staff numbers declined at the quickest pace since last August amid reports of costcutting plans. Overall inflationary pressures meanwhile cooled further, with input costs increasing at the slowest rate for nine months, while firms raised their selling prices only modestly. Encouragingly, confidence towards growth prospects improved to a one-year high amid forecasts of greater investment and expectations of better market conditions."
  • "Adjusted for seasonal factors, the headline Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) – a composite indicator designed to provide a singlefigure snapshot of operating conditions in the manufacturing economy – posted 51.0 in March, down from 51.6 in February. Although the reading signalled a further improvement in the health of the sector, the latest upturn was only slight and the weakest recorded since last November."

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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by Caixin Manufacturing PMI news event 

USDCNH M5

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5: 


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.04.07 18:31

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Yuan (based on the article)

USDCNH chart by Metatrader 5

USD/CNH - "This week the offshore Yuan dropped for five consecutive days and had its largest loss against the U.S. Dollar since last October, amid the ongoing US-China trade disputes. China’s March trade data could reveal how much the country has been impacted by the disputes. The direct influence from US’s tariffs on steel and aluminum effective on March 23 may be limited; yet, the tightened tensions could worry exporters and importers, who may have to adjust their business plans for the next periods. According to Bloomberg, the growth of exports in March is expected to drop to 11.9% from 44.5% in last month."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.04.11 10:12

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Consumer Price Index and range price movement 

2018-04-11 02:30 GMT | [CNY - CPI]

  • past data is 2.9%
  • forecast data is 2.6%
  • actual data is 2.1% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

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From rttnews article :

  • "Consumer prices in China were up just 2.1 percent on year in March, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday."
  • "The bureau also said that producer prices gained an annual 3.1 percent - also shy of forecasts for 3.3 percent and down from 3.7 percent in the previous month."

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USD/CNH M15: range price movement by China Consumer Price Index news event 

USDCNH chart by Metatrader 5

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The chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.04.15 10:18

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Yuan (based on the article)

USDCNH chart by Metatrader 5

Yuan - "China will release the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2018. It is widely expected to stay unchanged at 6.8% from the last quarter; any surprise would largely drive the market. Also, a leading indicator, Fixed Assets Investment will provide clues about the outlook of the economy: it picked up in February from an 18-year low level at the end of 2017; whether it is a recovery or a temporary retracement needs further evidence."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.


 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.05.02 09:09

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: Caixin Manufacturing PMI and range price movement 

2018-05-02 02:45 GMT | [CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

==========

From official report :

  • "The headline seasonally adjusted Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) – a composite indicator designed to provide a single-figure snapshot of operating conditions in the manufacturing economy – registered 51.1 in April, up fractionally from 51.0 in March. Operating conditions have now strengthened in each of the past 11 months, though the pace of improvement was only marginal.""Manufacturing production in China continued to increase during April. That said, the rate of expansion was modest, despite picking up slightly since March. According to panellists, output was raised in line with higher new order inflows. Indeed, latest data showed that total new business rose at the start of the second quarter, albeit at the slowest pace for seven months. Data indicated that weaker demand in international markets had partly weighed on overall growth, with new export sales declining for the first time since November 2016 (though only marginally)."

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USD/CNH M15: range price movement by Caixin Manufacturing PMI news event 

USDCNH chart by Metatrader 5

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.05.27 14:28

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Chinese Yuan (based on the article)

Chinese Yuan by MT5

Chinese Yuan - "China will release both official and Caixin manufacturing PMI prints for May. Amid ongoing trade disputes, the official PMI dropped slightly in April to 51.4 but still higher than the average in the first quarter and better than in the same month of last year; it is expected to hold in May. Caixin PMI, measuring relatively smaller companies, increased in April and is expected to rise further in May. If continued improvement is seen, it will add evidence to a sustainable recovery."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.


 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.06.08 07:52

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Trade Balance and range price movement 

2018-05-08 04:15 GMT | [CNY - Trade Balance]

  • past data is 183B
  • forecast data is 238B
  • actual data is 157B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the previous month.

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From forexlive article :

  • "China trade balance for May is CNY +156.51bn for a miss on estimates."
  • "AUD is making a fresh session low after the data, sellers are not rushing this thing but they have been steady indeed. Curious that the headline is a miss but the details are not so bad."

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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by China Trade Balance news event 

USDCNH/AUDUSD correlation chart by Metatrader 5

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5: 


 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.06.17 08:17

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Yuan (based on the article)

USD/CNH by MT5

USD/CNH - "This week, the USD/CNH broke above a long-term downtrend held since the mid of 2017, indicating a reversal in a longer time frame; the Yuan also lost against the EUR, JPY, GBP and CHF. Looking forward, the USD/CNH will likely continue the bullish trend (bearish for the Yuan); volatility in the pair is expected to elevate as the US and China have resumed tariff battles despite of rounds of negotiations. In the near term, volatility in the USD/CNH could rise amid the resumed US-China trade war. Despite of rounds of negotiations between senior U.S. and Chinese government officials over the past few weeks, the two parties failed to reach a consensus. On June 15, the U.S. issued the final list of approximately $50 billion Chinese imports that will be placed with a 25% tariff. A major focus is on “Made in China 2025” policy related products."

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After



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