Forecast and levels for Dollar Index - page 11

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.04.11 17:23

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, NZD/USD and USD/CAD: United States Consumer Price Index

2018-04-11 13:30 GMT | [USD - CPI]

  • past data is 0.2%
  • forecast data is 0.0%
  • actual data is -0.1% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

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From official report :

  • "The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 0.1 percent inMarch on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.2 percent in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.4 percent before seasonal adjustment."

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Dollar Index M1: range price movement by United States Consumer Price Index news events

Dollar Index chart by MT5

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NZD/USD M1: range price movement by United States Consumer Price Index news events

NZDUSD chart by MT5

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USD/CAD M5: range price movement by United States Consumer Price Index news events

USDCAD chart by MT5

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The chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.04.15 10:09

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar Index (based on the article)

Dollar Index chart by Metatrader 5

Dollar Index - "Next week’s economic calendar is noticeably light on US issues. The lone high-impact report that we receive is on Monday morning ahead of the US equity open, and this is the release of retail sales numbers for the month of March. This could certainly help to evoke some near-term volatility in the Greenback, as this is the first look we get at consumer behavior for the most recently completed month; but it’s unlikely to carry enough force to alter the longer-term or bigger picture move. The big question around that release is whether it can help the Dollar firm long enough for resistance to come into play, at which point the bigger-picture down-trend becomes attractive again for continuation."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.04.26 08:17

Dollar Index - daily bullish breakout; 91.03 is the key (based on the article)

Daily price broke Ichimoku cloud to below for the bearish reversal: the price is testing support level at 1.2181 for the bearish reversal to be continuing.

Dollar Index Ichimoku chart by Metatrader 5

  • "The US Dollar tends to be driven by relative economic growth. As the global reserve currency, when the rest of the world is strengthening, often at a faster pace than the US Economy, it is common for bonds to be issued in US Dollars and then converted to invest abroad driving the US Dollar lower. Another way to see this phenomenon in action is to look at junk bond yields. A falling yield in the US Junk Bond index tends to show a force behind US Dollar weakness whereas rising junk yields tend to favor repatriation and USD strength. Recently, the bid in junk bonds had been so intense that the spread between yields on investment-grade and junk-rated debt was the narrowest since 2007 showing a preference to chase yield over creditworthy borrowers. Again, this drive was sending bonds that were issued in USD abroad and done so by selling USD."
  • "Retail trader data shows 51.1% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.04 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 2.7% lower than yesterday and 40.9% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 2.1% lower than yesterday and 16.6% lower from last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EURUSD prices may continue to fall. Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week."

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The chart was made on daily timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.05.04 14:54

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, AUD/USD and USD/CAD: Non-Farm Payrolls

2018-05-04 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

  • past data is 135K
  • forecast data is 190K
  • actual data is 164K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] =Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

==========

From official report :

  • "Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 164,000 in April, and the unemploymentrate edged down to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, manufacturing, health care, and mining."

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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

Dollar Index by MT5

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

AUDUSD by MT5

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USD/CAD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

USDCAD by MT5

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.05.22 09:18

Dollar Index - strong daily bullish to be continuing (based on the article)

Dollar Index by Metatrader 5

  • "The march higher in US Yields has been doing much of the heavy lifting for the US Dollar. The question now is what will stop the ever-rising yields?  The onslaught of supply at Treasury auctions and stable US economic data combined with rising commodities (namely, energy) seem to speak to an environment ripe for rising yields, and thus, a rising US Dollar. Traders are often quick to identify a theme and then identify winners and losers within the theme."
  • "There has been a shift since mid-April in favor of long USD positioning among short-term or leveraged investors in recent weeks, and questions remain as to whether real money buyers will also get behind US Dollar strength. Real Money has staying power and can help put in a higher floor behind a market."
  • "The increase in bullish USD positioning has come mostly against European currencies. EUR net longs have fallen $6bn ($23.4bn to $17.0bn) since April 20 release or on April 17 data ($0.8bn this week.) GBP net longs have decreased by $4bn ($0.3bn this week.) CHF net shorts have increased by $3bn ($0.5bn this week.) Meanwhile, AUD accounted for $0.9bn of this increase over the last month. Bearish AUD positioning increased by $0.5bn this week."

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicator:

More about BrainTrading:

  1. BrainTrending indicators to download with template.
  2. Rules to trade manually
  3. How to install  
  4. TSD DS jurik BrainTrading system - the key thread
  5. TSD BrainTrading Stochastics system - the post
  6. BrainTrading Semi-Manual EA for M30 timeframe system - the thread 
  7. The differences between Brainwashing and BrainTrading system - the post.

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.05.27 14:21

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar Index (based on the article)

Dollar Index by MT5

Dollar Index - "The US Dollar continued to push higher last week, hitting a six-month high against an average of its major counterparts. The release of minutes from the May 2 FOMC meeting inspired a pullback. The document did not advance the case for further steepening of the expected rate hike path. Markets took that as reason enough for a correction, but this proved to be short-lived. Top-tier economic data returns in the week ahead. The Fed’s favored PCE inflation gauge is expected to see on-year price growth holding at the target 2 percent for the second consecutive month while official labor-market statistics show job creation narrowly accelerated in May. On balance, such outcomes are likely to keep rate hike bets at status quo, neither advancing the cautiously hawkish narrative nor derailing it."

============

The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.05.30 06:57

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, USD/CAD and GOLD: CB Consumer Confidence

2018-05-29 15:00 GMT | [USD - CB Consumer Confidence]

  • past data is 125.6
  • forecast data is 128.2
  • actual data is 128.0 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CB Consumer Confidence] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed households.

==========

From official report :

  • "The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased in May, following a modest decline in April (after a downward revision). The Index now stands at 128.0 (1985=100), up from 125.6 in April. The Present Situation Index increased from 157.5 to 161.7, while the Expectations Index improved from 104.3 last month to 105.6 this month."

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Dollar Index M15: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

Dollar Index by Metatrader 5

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USD/CAD M30: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

USD/CAD chart by Metatrader 5

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XAU/USD M15: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

Gold/USD chart by Metatrader 5

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Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

  1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
  2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
  3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
  4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread 

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.06.12 16:16

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, NZD/USD and GOLD: U.S. Consumer Price Index

2018-06-12 13:30 GMT | [USD - Core CPI]

  • past data is 0.1%
  • forecast data is 0.1%
  • actual data is 0.2% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Core CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy.

==========

From official report :

  • "The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in May on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.2 percent in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items  index rose 2.8 percent before seasonal adjustment."
  • "The indexes for gasoline and shelter were the largest factors in the seasonally adjusted increase in the all items index, as they were in April. The gasoline index increased 1.7 percent, more than offsetting declines in some of the other energy component indexes and led to a 0.9-percent rise in the energy index. The medical care index rose 0.2 percent. The food index was unchanged over the month."
  • "The all items index rose 2.8 percent for the 12 months ending May, continuing its upward trend since the beginning of the year. The index for all items less food and energy rose 2.2 percent for the 12 months ending May. The food index increased 1.2  percent, and the energy index rose 11.7 percent."

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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by U.S. Consumer Price Index news events

Dollar Index by Metatrader 5

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NZD/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Consumer Price Index news events

NZD/USD by Metatrader 5

============

XAU/USD M5: range price movement by by U.S. Consumer Price Index news events

GOLD/USD chart by Metatrader 5

============

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5 and MT4:

  • BrainTrending indicators to download with template.
  • Rules to trade manually
  • How to install  
  • TSD DS jurik BrainTrading system - the key thread 
  • TSD BrainTrading Stochastics system - the post 
  • BrainTrading Semi-Manual EA for M30 timeframe system - the thread 
  • The differences between Brainwashing and BrainTrading system - the post.

 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Forecast and levels for EURO

Sergey Golubev, 2018.06.13 21:04

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, EUR/USD and USD/CAD: Fed Funds Rate 

2018-06-19 19:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]

  • past data is 1.75%
  • forecast data is 2.00%
  • actual data is 2.00% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

==========

Dollar Index M15: range price movement by Fed Funds Rate news event 

Dollar Index by MT5

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EUR/USD M15: range price movement by Fed Funds Rate news event 

EUR/USD by MT5

==========

USD/CAD M15: range price movement by Fed Funds Rate news event 

USD/CAD by MT5

============

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5 and MT4:

  • BrainTrending indicators to download with template.
  • Rules to trade manually
  • How to install  
  • TSD DS jurik BrainTrading system - the key thread 
  • TSD BrainTrading Stochastics system - the post 
  • BrainTrading Semi-Manual EA for M30 timeframe system - the thread 
  • The differences between Brainwashing and BrainTrading system - the post.

 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.06.17 07:59

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar Index (based on the article)

Dollar Index by MT5

Dollar Index - "The US Dollar regained upward momentum last week, as expected. The currency emerged from a week loaded with high profile event risk with the strongest advance since late April. A hawkish monetary policy announcement from the Federal Reserve and a decidedly dovish one from the ECB did most of the work. The latter sank the EUR/USD exchange rate, which echoed as broader strength for the US unit. The docket thins out in the week ahead, with Friday’s release of June PMI surveys amounting to the only truly eye-catching bit of economic data. That puts the spotlight on a generous offering of commentary from Federal Reserve officials. A firmly hawkish narrative that reinforces the message from last week’s FOMC meeting might help reinforce an upside bias."

============

The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.


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