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Forecast and levels for Dollar Index - page 5

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Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.19 16:16

Weekly Outlook: 2017, August 20 - August 27 (based on the article)



The US dollar was looking for a new direction and it had a mixed week. The last full week of August features US housing data, durable goods orders and perhaps most importantly, the Jackson Hole Symposium. Here are the highlights for the upcoming week.

    1. US New Home Sales: Wednesday, 14:00. A similar figure is on the cards now: 615K.
    2. Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 14:30.
    3. UK GDP (second estimate): Thursday, 8:30. 
    4. US Existing Home Sales: Thursday, Thursday, 14:00. A small rise could be seen now: 5.57 million is projected.
    5. US durable goods orders: Friday, 12:30. A fall of 5.7% is on the cards for the headline while the core number is expected to rise by 0.4%.
    6. Jackson Hole Symposium – Draghi’s speech: Friday 19:00 This key economic gathering in Wyoming has been used to set the stage for significant changes in monetary policy, such as some of the Fed’s QE programs and also the ECB’s QE program. The topic for this year’s gathering is “Fostering a Dynamic Global Economy”. The key speeches are expected by Fed Chair Janet Yellen and ECB President Mario Draghi.
    7. Jackson Hole Symposium: Yellen’s speech: will be eyed for any hints about the next rate hike. We already know that the Fed intends to begin squeezing its balance sheet in September, but the fate of the December rate hike is unclear given the recent softness in inflation.

    Sergey Golubev
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    Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.20 10:31

    Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar Index (based on the article)


    Dollar Index - "The best-case scenario for the greenback would see Yellen setting the stage to begin so-called “quantitative tightening” (QT) next month. That would leave room for another rate hike just before year-end if all goes well and the “idiosyncratic” forces holding down inflation evaporate, as the Fed seems to believe they will. Vague rhetoric on QT prospects and ebbing confidence in reflation are likely to hurt the US currency."


    Sergey Golubev
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    Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.24 17:22

    Intra-Day Fundamentals - NZD/USD, Dollar Index and GOLD (XAU/USD): U.S. Jobless Claims

    2017-08-24 13:30 GMT | [USD - Unemployment Claims]

    if actual < forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

    [USD - Unemployment Claims] = The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.

    ==========

    From rttnews article :

    • "A report released by the Labor Department on Thursday showed a modest uptick in first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits in the week ended August 19th."
    • "The report said initial jobless claims inched up to 234,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 232,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to rise to 238,000."

    ==========

    NZD/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Jobless Claims news events


    ==========

    XAU/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Jobless Claims news events


    ==========

    Dollar Index M5: range price movement by U.S. Jobless Claims news events



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    Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.25 19:47

    Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and Dollar Index: Fed Chair Yellen Speech

    2017-08-25 15:00 GMT | [USD - Fed Chair Yellen Speech]

    [USD - Fed Chair Yellen Speech] = Speech about financial stability at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium, in Jackson Hole.

    ==========

    From marketwatch article :

    • "In a speech at Jackson Hole symposium, Yellen defended postcrisis banking regulations and spoke about the financial system instead."
    • "U.S. stocks pared gains but remained in positive Friday as investors appeared disappointed that Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen offered no clues to the central bank’s monetary policy path."

    ==========

    EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Fed Chair Yellen Speech news events


    ==========

    Dollar Index M5: range price movement by Fed Chair Yellen Speech news events



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    Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.26 06:54

    Weekly Outlook: 2017, August 27 - September 03 (based on the article)

    The US dollar was on the back foot across the board in the last full week of August. An update on US GDP, consumer confidence, and the all-important Non-Farm Payrolls stand out. 


      1. CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 14:00. A score of 120.3 is on the cards now.
      2. ADP Non-Farm Payrolls: Wednesday, 12:15. Payrolls software provider ADP publishes its jobs report for the private sector and always influences markets. The figures released do not always correlate with the official report by the BLS, but they are still eyed. A gain of 178K was seen in July. A similar gain of 186K is projected.
      3. US GDP (second release): Wednesday, 12:30. A small upgrade to 2.7% is expected in the second release.
      4. Euro-zone CPI: Thursday, 9:00. CPI is predicted to rise to 1.4% y/y while core CPI is expected to remain unchanged.
      5. Canadian GDP: Thursday, 12:30. A slower growth rate of 0.1% is on the cards now.
      6. US Core PCE: Thursday, 12:30. After core CPI remained unchanged at 1.7% y/y, the core PCE number will likely stand at 1.4% y/y. A rise of 0.1% is on the cards. Note that the report also includes personal spending and personal income.
      7. US Pending Home Sales: Thursday, 14:00. A gain of 0.6% is likely.
      8. Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI: Friday, 1:45. A minor tick down to 51 is forecast.
      9. US Non-Farm Payrolls: Friday, 12:30. Expectations stand at a gain of 180K jobs and no change of the unemployment rate, which stood at 4.3%. Wages are expected to rise by 0.2% m/m.
      10. US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Friday, 14:00. A small rise to 56.5 is expected.

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      Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.30 17:43

      Intra-Day Fundamentals - NZD/USD and Dollar Index: U.S. Gross Domestic Product

      2017-08-30 13:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]

      • past data is 2.6%
      • forecast data is 2.0%
      • actual data is 3.0% according to the latest press release

      if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

      [USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

      ==========

      From official report :

      • "Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.0 percent in the second quarter of 2017 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 1.2 percent."
      • "The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month."

      ==========

      NZD/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events


      ==========

      Dollar Index M5: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events



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      Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.02 09:06

      Weekly Outlook: 2017, September 03 - September 10 (based on the article)

      The US dollar was under pressure but managed to stage a comeback. The upcoming week features rate decisions in Australia, Canada, and the euro-zone, as well as other events. Here are the highlights for the upcoming week.


      1. Australian rate decision: Tuesday, 4:30. Will they try to talk down the currency now?
      2. UK Services PMI: Tuesday, 8:30. The publication has a significant impact on the pound.
      3. Australian GDP: Wednesday, 1:30.
      4. US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 14:00. 
      5. Canadian rate decision: Wednesday, 14:00. This time, no change is expected, but the accompanying statement will be closely watched for hints about a hike in October.  All the options are on the table.
      6. ECB rate decision: Thursday, 11:45, press conference at 12:30. Will the ECB announce QE tapering? And what will the scale be? These are open questions that keep EUR/USD on the edge.
      7. Japanese GDP (final): Thursday, 23:50. Japanese GDP reads see significant revisions.
      8. Canadian jobs report: Friday, 12:30. The OK result was not as impressive as most reports so far in 2017. The unemployment rate stood at 6.3%.

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      Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.03 10:23

      Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar Index (based on the article)


      Dollar Index - "The US Dollar continues to impress with its resilience last week. In the past three weeks, the greenback managed to navigate past political turmoil as well as Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s inconclusive performance at the Jackson Hole symposium, emerging relatively unscathed. It has now managed to shrug off August’s broadly disappointing employment report as well. The numbers showed that last month’s payrolls growth fell short of expectations and July’s increase was revised downward. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked up and wage inflation held steady, falling short of consensus forecasts calling for an increase. On balance, this might’ve been expected to sink the benchmark currency, yet an initial plunge was promptly erased to put it flat by week-end."


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      Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.09 15:53

      Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar Index (based on the article)


      Dollar Index - "The forecast will be set to neutral on the U.S. Dollar for the week ahead. While the downtrend is attractive, the Dollar is incredibly oversold and with a key Fed meeting on the docket for the week after next, profit taking from bears ahead of FOMC could potentially offset additional bearish drivers that might show up. If Thursday’s inflation comes-in at 1.6% or less, expect more selling in the Greenback."


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      Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.16 10:22

      Intra-day Gold bearish reversal with Dollar Index to be testing 91.50 support for the bearish reversal (based on the article)

      Price for H4 timeframe was bounced from 1,334 resistance to below to be reversed to the primary bearish market condition with 1,315 support level to be crossing for the bearish trend to be contionuing. By the way, the Dollar Index price is goping to be reersed on intra-day basis as well with 91.50 key support level.



      • "After penetrating the zone of resistance that had developed last summer from $1,350-$1,375, short-term bearish price action has begun to show. Even with North Korea conducting another missile test and while the U.S. Dollar remained relatively bearish against most currencies, sellers controlled short-term price action in Gold, driving prices down to a key support zone. "
      • "The fact that Gold prices haven’t put in a more vigorous response to this support zone combined with the fact that bulls failed to take over after another North Korean missile flew over Japan, it would appear that more weakness is on the horizon for Gold prices. This can lead to a deeper retracement in Gold prices, and below we’re looking at three support zones of interest below the current area. This could be looked at as potential take-off points for the longer-term bullish theme, with the expectation that an eventual re-test of $1,375 will be in the cards; while these levels can also function as short-side targets for those looking to take on bearish exposure to Gold. If Gold prices slip below the $1,275 level, then the confluent zone around $1,250 becomes attractive for short-side profit targets."

      -----

      Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download).
      Same system for MT4:

      1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
      2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
      3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
      4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

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