Forecast and levels for USD/CNH - page 14

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China's trade surplus (USD-Denominated Trade Balance) in May rose to record high

Sergey Golubev, 2020.06.07 10:16

China's trade surplus (USD-Denominated Trade Balance) in May rose to record high

Сhina's trade surplus in May rose to a record high as exports fell less than expected and imports fell along with commodity prices.


Exports decreased by 3.3% in dollar terms compared to a year earlier, while imports fell by 16.7%, resulting in a trade surplus of $ 62.93 billion. The record surplus comes as prices for goods purchased by China, such as crude oil, natural gas and soybeans, decline. Meanwhile, exports fell to a minimum, partly driven by sales of masks and other medical supplies, as countries around the world are struggling to stop the spread of coronavirus.

"The drop in imports is mainly due to a high base compared to last year and a drop in commodity prices," said Xing Zhaopen, an economist from the Australian and New Zealand banking group in Shanghai. "The volumes of most major imported goods have grown, showing that China's economy is gradually recovering."

source..

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Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

The forum threads
  1. Key forum thread - Fast Fourier Transform - Cycle Extraction - the thead with FFTfiltr indicator and explanation
  2. New EA based on the !xMeter (!xMter based on Fast Fourier Transform) - the thread 
  3. Many FFT indicators with examples and explanations - the thread 
  4. Ticks Before The News - the thread with many FFT indicators and explanation how to trade

CodeBase

  1. dt_FFT - library for MetaTrader  
  2. LGLIB - Numerical Analysis Library - library for MetaTrader 4 
  3. ALGLIB - Numerical Analysis Library - library for MetaTrader 5 
  4. AFIRMA - indicator for MetaTrader 5
  5. Fourier extrapolation of price - indicator for MetaTrader 5

The articles


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.07.02 09:50

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/JPY, USD/CNH and GOLD (XAU/USD): ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (ADP) and range price movement 

2020-07-01 13:15 GMT | [USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change]

  • past data is 3065K
  • forecast data is 2850K
  • actual data is 2369K according to the latest press release 
if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change] = Estimated change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry and government.

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From official report :

  • "Private-sector employment increased by 2,369,000 from May to June, on a seasonally adjusted basis."

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USD/JPY: range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event


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USD/CNH: range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event

USD/CNH: range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event

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GOLD (XAU/USD): range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event


==========

Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

  1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
  2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
  3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
  4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.07.14 11:21

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Trade Balance and range price movement 

2020-07-14 03:53 GMT | [CNY - Trade Balance]

  • past data is 443B
  • forecast data is 410B
  • actual data is 329B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the previous month.

==========

From wfmz article :

  • "China’s trade improved in June in a fresh sign the world’s second-largest economy is recovering from the coronavirus pandemic. But its exporters face threats including tension with Washington and a possible downturn in U.S. and European demand. Chinese imports rose 3% over a year earlier to $167.2 billion, rebounding from May’s 3.3% decline, customs data showed Tuesday. Exports edged up 0.4% to $213.6 billion, an improvement over the previous month’s 16.7% contraction. Imports of U.S. goods surged 10.6% to $10.4 billion despite tariff hikes in a fight with Washington over trade and technology. Exports to the United States gained 1% to $39.8 billion."

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USD/CNH: range price movement by China  Trade Balance news event 

USD/CNH: range price movement by China Trade Balance news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread



 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.07.30 15:51

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, USD/CNH and GOLD (XAU/USD): United States Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

2020-07-30 13:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]

  • past data is -5.0%
  • forecast data is -6.2%
  • actual data is -32.9% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

==========

From official report :

  • "Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 32.9 percent in the second quarter of 2020 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 5.0 percent."

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Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by  United States Gross Domestic Product news events

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by United States Gross Domestic Product news events

==========

USD/CNH: range price movement by  United States Gross Domestic Product news events

USD/CNH: range price movement by United States Gross Domestic Product news events

==========

XAU/USD: range price movement by  United States Gross Domestic Product news events

XAU/USD: range price movement by United States Gross Domestic Product news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.07.31 12:51

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Manufacturing PMI and range price movement 

2020-07-31 02:00 GMT | [CNY - Manufacturing PMI]

  • past data is 50.9
  • forecast data is 50.8
  • actual data is 51.1 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

==========

From ecns.cn article :

  • "The purchasing managers' index (PMI) for China's manufacturing sector rose to 51.1 in July from 50.9 in June, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said Friday. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below reflects contraction. It is the fifth month in a row that the figure remained in the expansion territory."

==========

USD/CNH: range price movement by China Manufacturing PMI news event 

USD/CNH: range price movement by China Manufacturing PMI news event

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.08.03 09:27

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI and range price movement 

2020-08-03 02:45 GMT | [CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI]

  • past data is 51.2
  • forecast data is 48.8
  • actual data is 52.8 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

==========

From official report :

  • "Latest PMI data signalled a solid improvement in the health of China's manufacturing sector in July, as market conditions continued to recover from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak. Companies registered the quickest expansions of output and new orders since January 2011 amid reports of firmer customer demand. New business from overseas meanwhile fell at the slowest rate for six months. Increased production led to the strongest rise in purchasing activity since January 2013. However, firms maintained a cautious approach to hiring, with staff numbers falling modestly despite an increase in backlogs of work. Inflationary pressures picked up, with firms reporting steeper increases in both input prices and output charges. At 52.8 in July, the headline seasonally adjusted Purchasing Managers’ Index ™ (PMI ™ ) – a composite indicator designed to provide a single-figure snapshot of operating conditions in the manufacturing economy – rose from 51.2 in June to signal a further improvement in the health of China’s manufacturing economy. Operating conditions have now improved in each of the past three month."

==========

USD/CNH: range price movement by China  Caixin Manufacturing PMI news event 

USD/CNH: range price movement by China Caixin Manufacturing PMI news event

============

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.08.12 16:32

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, USD/CNH and AUD/USD:  United States Core Consumer PriceIndex (Core CPI) m/m

2020-08-12 13:30 GMT | [USD - Core CPI]

  • past data is 0.2%
  • forecast data is 0.2%
  • actual data is 0.6% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Core CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

==========

From official report :

  • "The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6 percent in July on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.0 percent before seasonal adjustment."

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Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by United States Core Consumer Price Index news events

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by United States Core Consumer PriceIndex news events

==========

USD/CNH: range price movement by United States Core Consumer Price Index news events

USD/CNH: range price movement by United States Core Consumer PriceIndex news even

==========

AUD/USD: range price movement by United States Core Consumer Price Index news events

AUD/USD: range price movement by United States Core Consumer PriceIndex news events

==========

Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

  1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
  2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
  3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
  4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread 

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.08.27 15:08

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CNH and Dollar Index: United States Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

2020-08-27 13:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]

  • past data is -32.9%
  • forecast data is -32.5%
  • actual data is -31.7% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

==========

From official report :

  • "Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 31.7 percent in the second quarter of 2020 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 5.0 percent."

==========

EUR/USD: range price movement by  United States Gross Domestic Product news events

EUR/USD: range price movement by United States Gross Domestic Product news events

==========

USD/CNH: range price movement by  United States Gross Domestic Product news events

USD/CNH: range price movement by United States Gross Domestic Product news events

==========

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by  United States Gross Domestic Product news events

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by United States Gross Domestic Product news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.08.31 16:05

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Manufacturing PMI and range price movement 

2020-08-31 02:00 GMT | [CNY - Manufacturing PMI]

  • past data is 51.1
  • forecast data is 48.7
  • actual data is 51.0 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

==========

From independent.co.uk article :

  • "China’s economic rebound from the coronavirus pandemic gathered pace in August with a poll indicating the services sector grew at its fastest pace in more than two years. The purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for services rose to 55.2 from 54.2 in July, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. A reading above 50 indicates conditions improved from a month earlier. Manufacturing growth slowed marginally, with the PMI dropping to 51 from 51.1 a month earlier. The PMI for small manufacturers continued to decline, dropping to 47.7."

==========

USD/CNH: range price movement by China Manufacturing PMI news event 

USD/CNH: range price movement by China Manufacturing PMI news event

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:


 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.09.10 15:01

Intra-Day Fundamentals - GBP/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CNH: United States Producer Price Index

2020-09-10 13:30 GMT | [USD - PPI]

  • past data is 0.6%
  • forecast data is 0.2%
  • actual data is 0.3% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - PPI] = Change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers.

==========

From official report :

  • "The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.3 percent in August, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 0.6 percent in July and fell 0.2 percent in June. (See table A). On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index declined 0.2 percent for the 12 months ended in August."

==========

GBP/USD M5: range price movement by United States Producer Price Index news events

GBP/USD M5: range price movement by United States Producer Price Index news events

==========

USD/JPY M5: range price movement by United States Producer Price Index news events

USD/JPY M5: range price movement by United States Producer Price Index news events

============

USD/CNH M5: range price movement by United States Producer Price Index news events

USD/CNH M5: range price movement by United States Producer Price Index news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After


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