Forecast and levels for USD/CNH - page 13

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.04.01 14:20

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI and range price movement 

2020-04-01 02:45 GMT | [CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI]

  • past data is 40.3
  • forecast data is 45.0
  • actual data is 50.1 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

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From official report :

  • "The headline Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 in March, up sharply from 40.3 in February, representing the largest monthly increase in the 16-year survey history. However, some caution needs to be applied in interpreting the PMI. The PMI measures the month-on-month change in business conditions, with a level of 50.0 representing the no change mark. The headline index therefore merely pointed to a stabilisation of operating conditions in the sector during March rather than a recovery. Coming on the heels of an unprecedented collapse in February, the marginal gain seen in March leaves the level of business activity remaining well below that seen in January."

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USD/CNH: range price movement by China  Caixin Manufacturing PMI news event 

USD/CNH: range price movement by China Caixin Manufacturing PMI news event

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.04.09 16:05

Intra-Day Fundamentals - GBP/USD, USD/CNH and GOLD (XAU/USD): United States Initial Jobless Claims

2020-04-09 13:30 GMT | [USD - United States Initial Jobless Claims]

  • past data is 6867K
  • forecast data is 5000K
  • actual data is 6606K according to the latest press release

if actual < forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - United States Initial Jobless Claims] = The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.

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From official report :

  • "In the week ending April 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 6,606,000, a decrease of 261,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 219,000 from 6,648,000 to 6,867,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,265,500, an increase of 1,598,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 54,750 from 2,612,000 to 2,666,750."

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GBP/USD: range price movement by United States Initial Jobless Claims news events

GBP/USD: range price movement by United States Initial Jobless Claims news events

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USD/CNH: range price movement by United States Initial Jobless Claims news events

USD/CNH: range price movement by United States Initial Jobless Claims news events

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GOLD (XAU/USD): range price movement by United States Initial Jobless Claims news events

GOLD (XAU/USD): range price movement by United States Initial Jobless Claims news events

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.04.14 08:59

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Trade Balance and range price movement 

2020-04-14 04:47 GMT | [CNY - Trade Balance]

  • past data is -43B
  • forecast data is 175B
  • actual data is 139B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the previous month.

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From markets.businessinsider article :

  • "China's exports and imports declined at a slower than expected pace in March despite the spread of coronavirus, or covid-19 among its major trading partners. In dollar terms, exports decreased 6.6 percent on a yearly basis in March, data from the General Administration of Customs revealed Tuesday. This was slower than the expected decrease of 14 percent. Imports were down 0.9 percent versus the expected decline of 9.5 percent. As a result, the trade balance showed a surplus of $19.9 billion compared to economists' forecast of $18.5 billion."

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USD/CNH: range price movement by China  Trade Balance news event 

USD/CNH: range price movement by China Trade Balance news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.04.30 10:32

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Manufacturing PMI and range price movement 

2020-04-30 02:00 GMT | [CNY - Manufacturing PMI]

  • past data is 52.0
  • forecast data is 51.0
  • actual data is 50.8 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

==========

From cnbc article :

  • "The Caixin/Markit manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index for China’s factory activities in April was 49.4. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected the Caixin/Markit PMI to come in at 50.3."
  • "The official manufacturing PMI came in at 50.8 for the month of April. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected official manufacturing PMI to come in at 51.0 in April."
  • "The Caixin/Markit survey features a bigger mix of small- and medium-sized firms. In comparison, the official PMI survey typically polls a large proportion of big businesses and state-owned companies."

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USD/CNH: range price movement by China Manufacturing PMI news event 

USD/CNH: range price movement by China Manufacturing PMI news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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China Exports Rise Unexpectedly In April

Sergey Golubev, 2020.05.07 07:23

China Exports Rise Unexpectedly In April


China's exports grew unexpectedly in April despite global outbreak of coronavirus, or covid-19, data from the General Administration of Customs revealed Thursday.

Exports grew 3.5 percent on a yearly basis, confounding expectations for a decline of 12.1 percent. Shipments had declined 6.6 percent in March.

Imports plunged 14.2 percent on year versus expected fall of 12.4 percent and March's 0.9 percent drop.

Consequently, the trade balance showed a surplus of $45.34 billion, which was well above economists' forecast of $9.7 billion. The surplus increased sharply from $19.9 billion in March.

source..


 

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China Inflation Slows To 7-Month Low; Producer Prices Fall At Faster Pace

Sergey Golubev, 2020.05.12 09:36

China Inflation Slows To 7-Month Low; Producer Prices Fall At Faster Pace

China's consumer price inflation eased to a seven-month low in April and producer prices declined further reflecting weak domestic demand despite subsiding coronavirus pandemic, official data revealed Tuesday.



Consumer price inflation slowed notably to 3.3 percent in April from 4.3 percent in March, according to data published by the National Bureau of Statistics.

This was the weakest since October 2019 and also slower than economists' forecast of 3.7 percent.

Food prices advanced 14.8 percent and non-food prices moved up 0.4 percent. Pork prices, main source of food inflation, grew 96.9 percent but slower than March's 116.4 percent.

Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, slowed marginally to 1.1 percent from 1.2 percent in March.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell 0.9 percent, bigger than March's 1.2 percent decrease. This was the second consecutive drop in prices.

source..

 

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China's Industrial Output Returns to Growth

Sergey Golubev, 2020.05.15 07:51

China's Industrial Output Returns to Growth After Coronavirus Collapse


China's industrial output returned to growth for the first time this year in April, official data showed Friday, as the country continued its gradual recovery after the coronavirus brought activity to a near-halt.


Industrial production grew a more-than-expected 3.9 percent year-on-year last month in a sign that China -- where the pathogen first emerged -- is recovering from tough lockdown measures now seen in other parts of the world.

A Bloomberg poll of analysts had forecast growth of 1.5 percent.

But retail sales remained in contraction territory, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data showed, signalling that consumer demand is still weak despite China's initial success in containing the outbreak.

Retail sales were down 7.5 percent from a year ago, an improvement from a 15.8-percent plunge in March.

Industrial production growth last month was better than the 1.1-percent contraction in March and 13.5-percent collapse in the first two months of 2020 as well -- the first time industrial output shrank in three decades as the virus ravaged the economy.

Unemployment, however, crept up by 0.1 percentage points from March, to 6 percent, adding to concerns over a post-pandemic rebound.

"Retails sales during this year’s Labor Day holiday were still down 6.7 percent from last year, and revenue for the catering and accommodation industries only recovered to around 70 percent of normal levels," said Nomura.

more..

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.05.28 16:20

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, USD/CNH and GOLD (XAU/USD): United States Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

2020-05-28 13:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]

  • past data is -4.8%
  • forecast data is -4.8%
  • actual data is -5.0% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official report :

  • "Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 5.0 percent in the first quarter of 2020 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.1 percent."

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Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by  United States Gross Domestic Product news events

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by United States Gross Domestic Product news events

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USD/CNH: range price movement by  United States Gross Domestic Product news events

USD/CNH: range price movement by United States Gross Domestic Product news events

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XAU/USD: range price movement by  United States Gross Domestic Product news events

XAU/USD: range price movement by United States Gross Domestic Product news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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China's factory and service sector activities expanded in May

Sergey Golubev, 2020.05.31 16:01

China's factory and service sector activities expanded in May

The purchasing managers' index (PMI) for China's manufacturing sector and that for the non-manufacturing sector both stood above the boom-bust line of 50 in May, indicating steady recovery in major industries, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed.


While the manufacturing PMI eased to 50.6 in May from 50.8 in April, it still indicated an upward trend in economic growth as counter-cyclical adjustment policies gradually took effect, said Wen Bin, chief analyst at China Minsheng Bank. Of the surveyed manufacturing firms, 81.2 percent saw over 80 percent of their business operation resume in May, NBS data showed.

As China further implements proactive fiscal policy after the annual sessions of the national legislature and political advisory body, the construction industry is expected to see sound growth momentum, Wen said.

source..


 

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China Services PMI: general growth of service sector activity for the first time in 4 months

Sergey Golubev, 2020.06.03 07:59

China Services PMI: general growth of service sector activity for the first time in 4 months

China's service sector expanded for the first time in 4 months: "Latest PMI data signalled the first increase in Chinese services activity for four months in May amid an easing of measures related to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak."





Caixin Services PMI rose to 55, and Caixin Composite PMI rose to 54.5

The seasonally adjusted Business Activity Index increased for the first time in services activity since January.

Commenting on the China General Services and Composite PMI data, Dr. Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group said:
"The Caixin China Composite Output Index jumped to 54.5 in May from 47.6 the month before, as output in both the manufacturing and service sectors expanded sharply. Demand for services recovered more strongly than that for manufacturing, which was more constrained by sluggish exports amid the ongoing impact of the pandemic’s spread outside China. Backlogs of work fell for the first time this year as all industries gradually resumed production."

official source..


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