Forecast and levels for USD/CNH - page 17

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2022.03.17 06:20

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/CNH, Dollar Index and DAX Index : Federal Funds Rate and FOMC Statement

2022-03-16 18:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]

• past data is 0.25%
• forecast data is 0.50%
• actual data is 0.50% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

==========

From official report :

"The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With appropriate firming in the stance of monetary policy, the Committee expects inflation to return to its 2 percent objective and the labor market to remain strong. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/4 to 1/2 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. In addition, the Committee expects to begin reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at a coming meeting".

==========

USD/CNH : range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

==========

Dollar Index : range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

==========

DAX Index : range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5 
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Price prediction by Nearest Neighbor found by a weighted correlation coefficient - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2022.04.11 16:02

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Consumer Price Index (CPI) and range price movement 

2022-04-11 01:30 GMT | [CNY - CPI]

• past data is 0.9%
• forecast data is 1.3%
• actual data is 1.5% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

==========

From rttnews article :

"China's consumer price inflation accelerated more than expected in March and producer price inflation eased further, official data showed on Monday. Consumer price inflation rose to 1.5 percent in March from 0.9 percent in February, the National Bureau of Statistics reported. The rate was also above the economists' forecast of 1.2 percent."

==========

USD/CNH: range price movement by China Consumer Price Index (CPI) news event 

==========

Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Fourier extrapolation of price - indicator for MetaTrader 5

==========

The forum threads

1. Key forum thread - Fast Fourier Transform - Cycle Extraction - the thead with FFTfiltr indicator and explanation
2. New EA based on the !xMeter (!xMter based on Fast Fourier Transform) - the thread 
3. Many FFT indicators with examples and explanations - the thread 
4. Ticks Before The News - the thread with many FFT indicators and explanation how to trade

CodeBase

1. dt_FFT - library for MetaTrader  
2. LGLIB - Numerical Analysis Library - library for MetaTrader 4 
3. ALGLIB - Numerical Analysis Library - library for MetaTrader 5 
4. AFIRMA - indicator for MetaTrader 5
   
5. Fourier extrapolation of price - indicator for MetaTrader 5

The articles

• Introduction to the Empirical Mode Decomposition Method  
  
• Building a Spectrum Analyzer  
• Analysis of the Main Characteristics of Time Series

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2022.04.13 09:59

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Trade Balance and range price movement 

2022-04-13 04:08 GMT | [CNY - Trade Balance]

• past data is 739B
• forecast data is 445B
• actual data is 301B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) - good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the previous month.

==========

From asahi article :

"China’s exports rose 15.7 percent over a year ago in March while imports were flat amid disruption.. With almost no growth in imports, China’s global trade surplus surged by 243 percent to $47.4 billion. Exports to the 27-nation European Union fell 9.1 percent from a year ago to $44.4 billion while imports tumbled 41.6 percent to $24.3 billion. China’s surplus with Europe jumped 179.3 percent to $20.1 billion".

==========

USD/CNH: range price movement by China  Trade Balance news event 

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5 
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Price prediction by Nearest Neighbor found by a weighted correlation coefficient - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2022.05.06 16:19

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CNH and CAC 40 : United States Nonfarm Payrolls

2022-05-06 12:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

• past data is 428K
• forecast data is 390K
• actual data is 428K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

==========

From official report :

"Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 428,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job growth was widespread, led by gains in leisure and hospitality, in manufacturing, and in transportation and warehousing".

==========

EUR/USD : range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

==========

USD/CNH : range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

==========

CAC 40 : range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2022.05.11 06:13

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Consumer Price Index (CPI) and range price movement 

2022-05-11 01:30 GMT | [CNY - CPI]

• past data is 1.5%
• forecast data is 1.8%
• actual data is 2.1% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

==========

From rttnews article :

"Consumer prices in China were up 2.1 percent on year in April, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday. That exceeded expectations for an increase of 1.8 percent and was up from 1.5 percent in March. On a monthly basis, inflation rose 0.4 percent - again beating forecasts for a gain of 0.2 percent following the flat reading from the previous month."

==========

USD/CNH: range price movement by China Consumer Price Index (CPI) news event 

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2022.05.16 14:47

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Industrial Production and range price movement 

2022-05-16 02:00 GMT | [CNY - Industrial Production]

• past data is 5.0%
• forecast data is 0.4%
• actual data is  -2.9%  according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Industrial Production] = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.

==========

From rttnews article :

"Industrial output in China was down 2.9 percent on year in April, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday - missing expectations for an increase of 0.4 percent and down from 5.0 percent in March".

==========

USD/CNH M5: range price movement by China Industrial Production news event 

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5 
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Price prediction by Nearest Neighbor found by a weighted correlation coefficient - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2022.06.03 16:02

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/CNH, Dollar Index (DXY) and GOLD (XAU/USD): United States Nonfarm Payrolls

2022-06-03 12:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

• past data is 436K
• forecast data is 325K
• actual data is 390K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

==========

From official report :

"Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 390,000 in May, and the unemployment rate remained at 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, in professional and business services, and in transportation and warehousing. Employment in retail trade declined".

==========

USD/CNH : range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

==========

Dollar Index (DXY) : range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

==========

XAU/USD : range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2022.06.09 08:53

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Trade Balance USD and range price movement 

2022-06-09 03:00 GMT | [CNY - Trade Balance USD]

• past data is 51.1B
• forecast data is  58.0B
• actual data is 78.8B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) - good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Trade Balance USD] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the previous month (Trade Balance in US Dollars terms).

==========

From rttnews article :

"China's exports logged a double-digit growth in May as operations resumed in the Shanghai port after coronavirus-linked lockdowns, official data showed on Thursday. As a result, the trade surplus rose sharply to $78.7 billion in May from $51.1 billion a year ago. The expected level was $58.0 billion".

==========

USD/CNH: range price movement by China Trade Balance news event 

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• BrainTrend2Sig indicator from Codebase (free to download)
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• custom color schemes for MT5 - post #525
  

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

• BrainTrending indicators to download with template.
• Rules to trade manually
  
• How to install

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2022.07.08 16:36

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/CNH, USD/JPY and GOLD (XAU/USD): United States Nonfarm Payrolls

2022-07-08 12:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

• past data is 390K
• forecast data is 260K
• actual data is 260K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

==========

From official report :

"Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 372,000 in May, and the unemployment rate remained at 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, in professional and business services, and in transportation and warehousing. Employment in retail trade declined".

==========

USD/CNH : range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

==========

USD/JPY : range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

==========

XAU/USD : range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2022.07.15 07:56

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Gross Domestic Product and range price movement 

2022-07-15 02:00 GMT | [CNY - GDP]

• past data is 4.8%
• forecast data is 1.2%
• actual data is 0.4% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

==========

From asiafinancial article :

China’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth stalled in the April to June quarter, missing expectations, as strict lockdowns to control Covid cases devastated industries and hit consumer spending. China’s GDP expanded just 0.4% year-on-year, slowing significantly from 4.8% in the first quarter, official data showed on Friday. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP fell 2.6% in the second quarter, compared with expectations for a 1.5% decline and a revised 1.4% gain in the previous quarter.

==========

USD/CNH: range price movement by  China Gross Domestic Product news event 

==========

Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4
5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After

1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
2. Asctrend indicator in depth
3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included)
4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread