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Forecast and levels for AUD - page 23

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Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Australia NAB Business Conditions Weaken In April

Sergey Golubev, 2020.05.12 10:14

Australia NAB Business Conditions Weaken In April

Australia's business conditions weakened in April but confidence bounced back from March, survey results from National Australia Bank showed Tuesday.



The business conditions index fell to -34 in April from -22 in March. Overall conditions were deeply negative in all industries outside of mining.

The fall in conditions was driven by all three components of the index namely trading conditions, profitability and the employment index.

The employment conditions indicator decreased 15 points to -35. "Overall the survey suggests that the unemployment rate will rise substantially in April," Alan Oster, NAB Chief Economist, said.

However, the business confidence rose to -46 in April from -65 a month ago. However, it was twice as weak as the trough in the 1990s recession.

"We see a recovery in growth late this year, but even though it could be a solid bounce the level of output is not expected to be recovered to pre-COVID levels until early 2022," Oster added.

source..

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Australia: Almost 600,000 people lost work in April

Sergey Golubev, 2020.05.14 08:07

Australia: Almost 600,000 people lost work in April

Australia has suffered its single largest monthly fall in the number of people holding a job, with a record 594,000 drop in the number of workers during April.



Figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday showed the unemployment rate spiking a full percentage point to 6.2 per cent last month. It's the highest jobless rate since September 2015.

"This is a tough day for Australia. A very tough day," Prime Minister Scott Morrison said at a press conference in Canberra after the data's release.

"Almost 600,000 jobs have been lost. Every one of them devastating for those Australians, for their families, for their communities. A very tough day."

Mr Morrison said the impending economic downturn would be tougher than the global financial crisis. "This is harder - we haven't seen this before and for young people who have never experienced that, this is beyond anything they could imagine."

The number of officially unemployed people jumped by 104,500 to more than 823,300. The previous largest increase in unemployment in a single month was 65,400 in October 1982 during that year's recession. The jobless rate peaked at 10.5 per cent the following year.

more..


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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.06.01 16:57

Intra-Day Fundamentals - AUD/USD, NZD/USD and USD/JPY: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

2020-06-01 15:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI]

  • past data is 41.5
  • forecast data is 43.5
  • actual data is 43.1 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers, excluding the manufacturing industry.

==========

From official report :

  • "The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The May PMI® registered 43.1 percent, up 1.6 percentage points from the April reading of 41.5 percent. This figure indicates expansion in the overall economy after April’s contraction, which ended a period of 131 consecutive months of growth. The New Orders Index registered 31.8 percent, an increase of 4.7 percentage points from the April reading of 27.1 percent."

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AUD/USD: range price movement by  ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news events

AUD/USD: range price movement by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news events

==========

NZD/USD: range price movement by  ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news events

NZD/USD: range price movement by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news events

==========

USD/JPY: range price movement by  ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news events

USD/JPY: range price movement by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news events

=========

The charts were made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5


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The Reserve Bank of Australia left its interest rate and the target yield on three-year government bonds unchanged

Sergey Golubev, 2020.06.02 07:26

The Reserve Bank of Australia  left its interest rate and the target yield on three-year government bonds unchanged

At the monetary policy meeting on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia board kept its interest rate at a record low 0.25 percent and the targeted yield on three-year government bonds at around 0.25 percent: "At its meeting today, the Board decided to maintain the current policy settings, including the targets for the cash rate and the yield on 3-year Australian Government bonds of 25 basis points."


The bank observed that the outlook, including the nature and speed of the expected recovery, remains highly uncertain and the coronavirus pandemic is likely to have long-lasting effects on the economy: "The global economy is experiencing a severe downturn as countries seek to contain the coronavirus. Many people have lost their jobs and there has been a sharp rise in unemployment. Over the past month, infection rates have declined in many countries and there has been some easing of restrictions on activity. If this continues, a recovery in the global economy will get under way, supported by both the large fiscal packages and the significant easing in monetary policies."

source..


Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.06.18 14:26

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Employment Change and range price movement 

2020-06-18 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Employment Change]

  • past data is -607.4K
  • forecast data is -105.0K
  • actual data is -227.7K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month.

==========

From official report :

  • "Employment decreased 227,700 to 12,154,100 people. Full-time employment decreased 89,100 to 8,540,000 people and part-time employment decreased 138,600 to 3,614,100 people."

==========

AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia  Employment Change news event 

AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia Employment Change news event

==========

Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

  1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
  2. Asctrend indicator in depth
  3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
  4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.06.27 11:56

AUD/USD - daily bullish ranging; 0.7963 is the key resistance level for the bullish trend to be continuing (based on the article)

AUDUSD daily Brainwashing chart by Metatrader 5

AUDUSD daily Brainwashing chart by Metatrader 5

  • "Australian Dollar surge against its major counterparts may be at an end, as local Covid-19 cases spike."
  • "RBA Governor Lowe’s timid attempts at jawboning the local currency may intensify with deteriorating fundamentals."
  • "Tensions with China could weigh on AUD moving forward."
  • "From a technical standpoint AUD remains capped by the 2012 downtrend, which has consistently acted as a pivotal inflection point for the cycle-sensitive Australian Dollar. To that end, deteriorating fundamentals may impose increasing downward pressure on AUD against its major counterparts, and may signal the end to the commodity-linked currency’s surge to pre-crisis levels."

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.07.07 10:16

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Cash Rate, Rate Statement and range price movement 

2020-07-07 05:30 GMT | [AUD - Cash Rate]

  • past data is 0.25%
  • forecast data is 0.25%
  • actual data is 0.25% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Cash Rate] = Interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries.

==========

From official report :

  • "At its meeting today, the Board decided to maintain the current policy settings, including the targets for the cash rate and the yield on 3-year Australian Government bonds of 25 basis points."
  • "The global economy has experienced a severe downturn as countries seek to contain the coronavirus. Many people have lost their jobs and there has been a sharp rise in unemployment. Leading indicators have generally picked up recently, suggesting the worst of the global economic contraction has now passed. Despite this, the outlook remains uncertain and the recovery is expected to be bumpy and will depend upon containment of the coronavirus. Over the past month, infection rates have declined in many countries, but they are still very high and rising in others."
  • "Globally, conditions in financial markets have improved. Volatility has declined and there have been large raisings of both debt and equity. The prices of many assets have risen substantially despite the high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook. Bond yields remain at historically low levels."

==========

AUD/USD: range price movement by RBA Cash Rate news event 

AUD/USD: range price movement by RBA Cash Rate news event

AUD/USD: range price movement by RBA Cash Rate news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:



Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.07.29 12:37

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia CPI and range price movement 

2020-07-29 02:30 GMT | [AUD - CPI]

  • past data is 0.3%
  • forecast data is -2.0%
  • actual data is -1.9% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

==========

From official report :

  • "fell 1.9% in the June 2020 quarter, compared to a rise of 0.3% in the March 2020 quarter.

==========

AUD/USD: range price movement by  Australia CPI news event 

AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia CPI news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:


Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.08.04 10:56

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Cash Rate, Rate Statement and range price movement 

2020-08-04 05:30 GMT | [AUD - Cash Rate]

  • past data is 0.25%
  • forecast data is 0.25%
  • actual data is 0.25% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Cash Rate] = Interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries.

==========

From official report :

  • "At its meeting today, the Board decided to maintain the current policy settings, including the targets for the cash rate and the yield on 3-year Australian Government bonds of 25 basis points." 
  • "The global economy is experiencing a severe contraction as countries seek to contain the coronavirus. Even though the worst of this contraction has now passed, the outlook remains highly uncertain. The recovery is expected to be only gradual and its shape is dependent on containment of the virus. While infection rates have declined in some countries, they are still very high and rising in others. International trade remains weak, although there has been a strong recovery in industrial activity in China over recent months."
  • "The Board is committed to do what it can to support jobs, incomes and businesses in Australia. Its actions are keeping funding costs low and assisting with the supply of credit to households and businesses. This accommodative approach will be maintained as long as it is required. The Board will not increase the cash rate target until progress is being made towards full employment and it is confident that inflation will be sustainably within the 2–3 per cent target band."

==========

AUD/USD: range price movement by RBA Cash Rate news event 

AUD/USD: range price movement by RBA Cash Rate news event

AUD/USD: range price movement by RBA Cash Rate news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.08.12 16:32

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, USD/CNH and AUD/USD:  United States Core Consumer PriceIndex (Core CPI) m/m

2020-08-12 13:30 GMT | [USD - Core CPI]

  • past data is 0.2%
  • forecast data is 0.2%
  • actual data is 0.6% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Core CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

==========

From official report :

  • "The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6 percent in July on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.0 percent before seasonal adjustment."

==========

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by United States Core Consumer Price Index news events

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by United States Core Consumer PriceIndex news events

==========

USD/CNH: range price movement by United States Core Consumer Price Index news events

USD/CNH: range price movement by United States Core Consumer PriceIndex news even

==========

AUD/USD: range price movement by United States Core Consumer Price Index news events

AUD/USD: range price movement by United States Core Consumer PriceIndex news events

==========

Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

  1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
  2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
  3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
  4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread 

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