Forecast and levels for USD/CNH - page 11

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Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.09.19 12:15

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/CAD, USD/JPY and USD/CNHFederal Funds Rate and FOMC Statement

2019-09-18 18:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]

  • past data is 2.25%
  • forecast data is 2.00%
  • actual data is 2.00% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

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From official report :

  • "Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. In light of the implications of global developments for the economic outlook as well as muted inflation pressures, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 1-3/4 to 2 percent. This action supports the Committee's view that sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective are the most likely outcomes, but uncertainties about this outlook remain. As the Committee contemplates the future path of the target range for the federal funds rate, it will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective."

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USD/CAD: range price movement by  Federal Funds Rate news events

USD/CAD: range price movement by  Federal Funds Rate news events

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USD/JPY: range price movement by  Federal Funds Rate news events

USD/JPY: range price movement by  Federal Funds Rate news events

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USD/CNH: range price movement by  Federal Funds Rate news events

SD/CNH: range price movement by  Federal Funds Rate news events

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Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

  1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
  2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
  3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
  4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
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Sergey Golubev  

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.10.04 15:10

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CNH: United States Nonfarm Payrolls

2019-10-04 12:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

  • past data is 168K
  • forecast data is 145K
  • actual data is 136K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

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From official report :

  • "The unemployment rate declined to 3.5 percent in September, and total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 136,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment in health care and in professional and business services continued to trend up."

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USD/JPY: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

USD/JPY: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

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USD/CAD: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

USD/CAD: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

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USD/CNH: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

USD/CNH: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
112951
Sergey Golubev  

USD/CNH Daily Technical Analysis: watch for key resistance to be broken for the daily bullish continuation

The price is located near and above Ichimoku cloud for the primary bullish market condition within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 7,1578 resistance level located near and above Ichimoku cloud for the bullish trend to be continuing, and
  • 7,1065 support level located near and below Ichimoku cloud for the secondary ranging market condition to be started.

USD/CNH Daily chart by Metatrader 5

  • If the price will break7,1578 resistance level so the bullish trend will be continuing.
  • if price will break7,1065 support so the secondary ranging correction with the possible bearish reversal will be started.
  • if not sothe price will be ranging within the levels.

Resistance
Support
7,1956
7,1065
7,1578 7,0347
N/A 6,9889

The Medium-Term Strategy: watch close price to break 7,1578 resistance level for possible buy trade. Alternateve - watch price to break 7,0347 support level for possible sell trade.

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The chart was made on daily timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
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Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.10.14 09:04

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Trade Balance and range price movement 

2019-10-14 03:00 GMT | [CNY - Trade Balance]

  • past data is 240B
  • forecast data is 254B
  • actual data is 275B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the previous month.

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From business.financialpost article :

  • "China’s exports fell at a faster pace in September while imports contracted for a fifth straight month, pointing to further weakness in the economy and underlining the need for more stimulus as the Sino-U.S. trade war drags on. Exports fell 3.2% from a year earlier, the biggest fall since February, customs data showed on Monday. Analysts had expected a 3% decline in a Reuters poll after August’s 1% drop."

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USD/CNH: range price movement by China  Trade Balance news event 

USD/CNH: range price movement by China  Trade Balance news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
112951
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.10.15 09:08

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Consumer Price Index (CPI) and range price movement 

2019-10-15 01:30 GMT | [CNY - CPI]

  • past data is 2.8%
  • forecast data is 2.9%
  • actual data is 3.0% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

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From rttnews article :

  • "Consumer prices in China were up 3.0 percent on year in September, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday. On a monthly basis, inflation rose 0.9 percent - accelerating from 0.7 percent in the previous month. The bureau also said that producer prices contracted 1.2 percent on year, matching expectations following the 0.8 percent decline a month earlier."

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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by China  Consumer Price Index news event 

USD/CNH M5: range price movement by China  Consumer Price Index news event

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


Thushara Dissanayake
39389
Thushara Dissanayake  

Identified Trend Channels

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