Forecast and levels for USD/CNH - page 4

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.14 08:07

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Industrial Output and range price movement 

2017-08-14 03:00 GMT | [CNY - Industrial Production]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Industrial Production] = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities. 

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From marketnews article :

  • "China's industrial output growth slowed sharply in July following a sharp increase in June, an indication that the country's economic growth is slowing. Industrial output grew 6.4% on an annualized basis, well below the 7.6% growth rate in June, while still above the 6.0% growth rate recorded in July 2016, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said Monday. The July industrial output growth rate was the lowest since the January-February period this year."
  • "The industrial output situation is still better than last year, and the steady-to-good economic conditions have not changed," Zhang Yiping, the analyst at China Merchant Securities said on Monday. "It was overly-enthusiastic sentiment in the market that caused excessively high expectations which belittles the growth of industrial output."

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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by China Industrial Output news event 



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.15 16:14

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, Dollar Index and GOLD (XAU/USD): U.S. Advance Retail Sales

2017-08-15 13:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

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From marketwatch article :

  • "Sales at U.S. retailers surged in July to the highest level of 2017, aided by strong demand for new autos and Amazon’s Prime Day shopping specials.""Sales at retailers nationwide jumped 0.6% last month, the government said Tuesday. A mysterious decline in spending at the end of the second quarter, meanwhile, vanished after fresh government revisions based on newly incorporated sales data."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Advance Retail Sales news events


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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by U.S. Advance Retail Sales news events


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XAU/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Advance Retail Sales news events



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.20 10:40

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/CNH (based on the article)


USD/CNH - "The Chinese Yuan lost against the U.S. Dollar this week, following five consecutive gains. The USD/CNH remained the bearish trend (bullish for the Yuan) amid the Dollar weakness and was testing the top 50% line of a parallel. Next week, China’s economic calendar is light; the primary external risk will come from the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. In terms of risks from home, policies from China’s central bank as well as the development of China’s relationship with its counterparts will be top drivers for Yuan pairs."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.29 17:54

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CAD and USD/CNH: Consumer Confidence Index

2017-08-29 15:00 GMT | [USD - CB Consumer Confidence]

  • past data is 120.0
  • forecast data is 122.6
  • actual data is 122.9 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CB Consumer Confidence] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed households.

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From official report :

  • "The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had increased in July, improved further in August. The Index now stands at 122.9 (1985=100), up from 120.0 in July. The Present Situation Index increased from 145.4 to 151.2, while the Expectations Index rose marginally from 103.0 last month to 104.0."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Consumer Confidence Index news events


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USD/CAD M5: range price movement by Consumer Confidence Index news events


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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by Consumer Confidence Index news events



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.03 10:34

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/CNY (based on the article)


USD/CNY - "The Chinese regulator has been guiding the Yuan higher: The PBOC strengthened the Yuan reference rate for five consecutive days this week; on Friday, the Yuan fix was set to be 6.5909, the strongest level since June 2016. A key thing to watch next is how the PBOC will use the “counter-cyclical factor” to guide the Yuan when it is on an upward trend. On May 26, the regulator introduced this factor and added it into the reference rate formula, in the effort to curb one-way bets on the Yuan."


 


Weekly price broke 100-SMA to below for the raning market condition. 100-SMA is above 200-SMA which is indicating the primary bullish condition for the price on the weekly chart, and if the price breaks 200-SMA 'bearish reversal' value to below at 6.4412 so the bearish reversal of the weekly price movement will be started.

Most likely scenario - weekly bearish reversal.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.21 09:11

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/CNH: FOMC Fed Funds Rate

2017-09-20 19:00 GMT | [USD - FED Interest Rate Decision]

  • past data is 1.25%
  • forecast data is 1.25%
  • actual data is 1.25% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - FED Interest Rate Decision] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

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From official report :

  • "In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1 to 1-1/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation."

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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by FOMC Fed Funds Rate news events

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.26 16:53

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/CNH: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence

2017-09-26 15:00 GMT | [USD - CB Consumer Confidence]

  • past data is 120.4
  • forecast data is 119.9
  • actual data is 119.8 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CB Consumer Confidence] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed households.

==========

From official report :

  • "The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had improved marginally in August, declined slightly in September. The Index now stands at 119.8 (1985=100), down from 120.4 in August. The Present Situation Index decreased from 148.4 to 146.1, while the Expectations Index rose marginally from 101.7 last month to 102.2."

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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by The Conference Board Consumer Confidence news events


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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.06 14:53

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and USD/CNH: Non-Farm Payrolls

2017-10-06 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

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From official report :

  • "The unemployment rate declined to 4.2 percent in September, and total nonfarm payroll employment changed little (-33,000), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. A sharp employment decline in food services and drinking places and below-trend growth in some other industries likely reflected the impact of Hurricanes Irma and Harvey."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events


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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events


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Chart was made on MT5 with MA Channel Stochastic system uploaded on this post, and using standard indicators from Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.12 16:28

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/CNH and GOLD (XAU/USD): U.S. Producer Price Index 

2017-10-12 13:30 GMT | [USD - PPI]

  • past data is 0.2%
  • forecast data is 0.4%
  • actual data is 0.4% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - PPI] = Change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers.

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From official report :

  • "The Producer Price Index for final demand advanced 0.4 percent in September, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices moved up 0.2 percent in August and edged down 0.1 percent in July. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index increased 2.6 percent for the 12 months ended in September, the largest rise since an advance of 2.8 percent for the 12 months ended February 2012."

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USD/CNH M15: range price movement by U.S. Producer Price Index  news events


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XAU/USD M15: range price movement by U.S. Producer Price Index  news events


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Chart #1 was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

==========

Chart #2 was made on MT5 with MA Channel Stochastic system uploaded on this post, and using standard indicators from Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:


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