Forecast and levels for GOLD (XAU/USD) - page 15

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

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Sergey Golubev, 2020.07.02 09:50

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/JPY, USD/CNH and GOLD (XAU/USD): ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (ADP) and range price movement 

2020-07-01 13:15 GMT | [USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change]

• past data is 3065K
• forecast data is 2850K
• actual data is 2369K according to the latest press release 

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change] = Estimated change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry and government.

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From official report :

• "Private-sector employment increased by 2,369,000 from May to June, on a seasonally adjusted basis."

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USD/JPY: range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event

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USD/CNH: range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event

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GOLD (XAU/USD): range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event

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Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Vortex - indicator for MetaTrader 5

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

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Sergey Golubev, 2020.07.06 08:03

XAU/USD - bullish ranging within 1747/1789 support/resistance levels waiting for direction (based on  the article)

• "Anti-fiat hedges like gold may surrender in the third quarter if a second wave of the coronavirus hits the global economy and dampens future inflation prospects. Demand for haven-linked assets like the US Dollar may amplify XAU/USD’s losses as traders re-allocate capital from relatively illiquid commodities to more frequently-traded currencies like the Greenback. Rising unemployment numbers and uncertainty embedded in labor statistics could also magnify the appeal of holding haven-linked assets. The prospect of another lockdown in numerous localities around the United States could further dampen price growth and erode the appeal of gold. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell warned that the road to recovery will be arduous and “long”. Furthermore, financial fragility in the corporate debt sector could also hurt gold prices if the market for leveraged loans and other credit derivatives undermine interbank stability. The dramatic widening of spreads on credit default swaps (CDS) for sub-investment grade corporate debt during the global selloff in equity markets in March saw gold prices crater with risk-oriented assets."

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
  
• AbsoluteStrengthMarket- indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

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Sergey Golubev, 2020.07.11 18:44

XAU/USD - bullish ranging within 1789/1817 support/resistance levels waiting for direction(based on  the article)

• "Gold prices could retreat if a second wave of the coronavirus hits the global economy."
• "XAU/USD losses may be amplified by rising unemployment figures, weak price growth."
• "Gold may surrender to USD if eroding fundamentals destabilize corporate debt market."
  

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.07.30 15:51

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, USD/CNH and GOLD (XAU/USD): United States Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

2020-07-30 13:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]

• past data is -5.0%
• forecast data is -6.2%
• actual data is -32.9% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official report :

• "Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 32.9 percent in the second quarter of 2020 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 5.0 percent."

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Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by  United States Gross Domestic Product news events

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USD/CNH: range price movement by  United States Gross Domestic Product news events

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XAU/USD: range price movement by  United States Gross Domestic Product news events

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
  
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

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Sergey Golubev, 2020.08.08 11:09

GOLD (XAU/USD) - secondary ranging withnin the primary daily bullish trend; 2,069/1,983 are the key  levels (based on the article)

• "Gold performance continues to glisten. The precious metal has staged an impressive 12% rally over the last three weeks, which just catapulted XAU/USD to an all-time high above the $2,000-price level. This recent extension higher lifts gold price action to a 33% gain year-to-date."
• "The price of gold holds a strong inverse relationship with real yields, generally speaking, and underscores a primary driver of the yellow-metal’s broader direction. To that end, real yields have been crashing lower since August 2018, which just so happens to correspond with where gold prices bottomed two years ago."

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Laguerre - indicator for MetaTrader 5 (as a part of Laguerre scalping system)

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.08.26 20:00

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/CAD, Brent Crude Oil and GOLD (XAU/USD): Unites States Durable Goods Orders

2020-08-26 13:30 GMT | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]

• past data is 7.6%
• forecast data is 4.3%
• actual data is 11.2% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods.

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From forextv article :

• "Reflecting a sharp increase in orders for transportation equipment, the Commerce Department released a report on Wednesday showing new orders for U.S. manufactured durable goods spiked by much more than expected in the month of July. The Commerce Department said durable goods orders skyrocketed by 11.2 percent in July after surging up by a revised 7.7 percent in June."

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USD/CAD: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events

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Brent Crude Oil: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events

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GOLD (XAU/USD): range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Laguerre - indicator for MetaTrader 5 (as a part of Laguerre scalping system)

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.09.01 19:43

Intra-Day Fundamentals - AUD/USD, USD/JPY and GOLD: ISM Manufacturing PMI

2020-09-01 15:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]

• past data is 54.2
• forecast data is 54.6
• actual data is 56.0 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

==========

From official report :

• "The August PMI® registered 56 percent, up 1.8 percentage points from the July reading of 54.2 percent. This figure indicates expansion in the overall economy for the fourth month in a row after a contraction in April, which ended a period of 131 consecutive months of growth. The New Orders Index registered 67.6 percent, an increase of 6.1 percentage points from the July reading of 61.5 percent. The Production Index registered 63.3 percent, up 1.2 percentage points compared to the July reading of 62.1 percent. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 54.6 percent, an increase of 2.8 percentage points compared to the July reading of 51.8 percent. The Employment Index registered 46.4 percent, an increase of 2.1 percentage points from the July reading of 44.3 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 58.2 percent, up 2.4 percentage points from the July figure of 55.8 percent."

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AUD/USD: range price movement by  ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news events

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USD/JPY: range price movement by  ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news events

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GOLD (XAU/USD): range price movement by  ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news events

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The charts were made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

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Sergey Golubev, 2020.09.16 15:23

Intra-Day Fundamentals - AUD/USD, USD/CAD and GOLD: United States Retail Sales Ex Autos

2020-09-20 13:30 GMT | [USD - Core Retail Sales]

• past data is 1.3%
• forecast data is 1.0%
• actual data is 0.7% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Core Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles.

==========

From rttnews article :

• "The Commerce Department said retail sales rose by 0.6 percent in August after climbing by a downwardly revised 0.9 percent in July. Excluding sales by motor vehicles and parts retailers, retail sales climbed by 0.7 percent in August after leaping by a downwardly revised 1.3 percent in July."

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AUD/USD: range price movement by United States Retail Sales Ex Autos news events

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USD/CAD: range price movement by United States Retail Sales Ex Autos news events

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GOLD (XAU/USD): range price movement by United States Retail Sales Ex Autos news events

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• BrainTrend2Sig indicator from Codebase (free to download)
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ChandeQStick - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

• BrainTrending indicators to download with template.
• Rules to trade manually
  
• How to install

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.10.07 20:23

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/CNH, GOLD (XAU/USD) and S&P 500: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes

2020-10-07 19:00 GMT | [USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes]

• past data is n/a
• forecast data is n/a
• actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

[USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes] = It's a detailed record of the FOMC's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates.

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From official report :

• "Participants noted that business investment, which had plummeted in the second quarter, appeared to have begun to turn around. Al­though business contacts indicated that overall business activity had been stronger than they expected, it remained well below pre-pandemic levels. Several participants agreed it was appropriate to incorporate key elements of the consensus statement into the post-meeting statement, they preferred to retain forward guidance similar to that provided in recent FOMC statements."
• "Many participants said that if future fiscal support was significantly smaller or came significantly later than they expected, the pace of recovery could be slower than anticipated. These participants judged that given very low long-term rates, there did not appear to be a need for enhanced forward guidance at this juncture or much scope for forward guidance to put additional downward pressure on yields."

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USD/CNH: range price movement by FOMC Meeting Minutes news events

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GOLD (XAU/USD): range price movement by FOMC Meeting Minutes news events

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S&P 500: range price movement by FOMC Meeting Minutes news events

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.10.24 09:32

GOLD (XAU/USD) - daily ranging near bullish reversal; 1931 is the key (based on the article)

• "Gold price action fluctuated within a 2% range over the last five trading sessions only to finish flat on the week. The precious metal continues to seek a bullish catalyst to fuel a breakout from its consolidation pattern, and in light of murkiness surrounding fiscal stimulus negations, gold prices could keep drifting broadly sideways. "
• "Gold prices could spike higher with potential for the US Dollar to weaken further if fiscal stimulus optimism can outshine skepticism. XAU/USD could decline, however, if the US Dollar strengthens as coronavirus concerns take hold and inflation expectations gravitate lower."

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The chart was made on W1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template).