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Sergey Golubev
Moderator
103845
Sergey Golubev  

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar IndexNZD/USD and GOLD: U.S. Consumer Price Index

2018-06-12 13:30 GMT | [USD - Core CPI]

  • past data is 0.1%
  • forecast data is 0.1%
  • actual data is 0.2% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Core CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy.

==========

From official report :

  • "The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in May on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.2 percent in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items  index rose 2.8 percent before seasonal adjustment."
  • "The indexes for gasoline and shelter were the largest factors in the seasonally adjusted increase in the all items index, as they were in April. The gasoline index increased 1.7 percent, more than offsetting declines in some of the other energy component indexes and led to a 0.9-percent rise in the energy index. The medical care index rose 0.2 percent. The food index was unchanged over the month."
  • "The all items index rose 2.8 percent for the 12 months ending May, continuing its upward trend since the beginning of the year. The index for all items less food and energy rose 2.2 percent for the 12 months ending May. The food index increased 1.2  percent, and the energy index rose 11.7 percent."

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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by U.S. Consumer Price Index news events

Dollar Index by Metatrader 5

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NZD/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Consumer Price Index news events

NZD/USD by Metatrader 5

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XAU/USD M5: range price movement by by U.S. Consumer Price Index news events

GOLD/USD chart by Metatrader 5

============

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5 and MT4:

  • BrainTrending indicators to download with template.
  • Rules to trade manually
  • How to install  
  • TSD DS jurik BrainTrading system - the key thread 
  • TSD BrainTrading Stochastics system - the post 
  • BrainTrading Semi-Manual EA for M30 timeframe system - the thread 
  • The differences between Brainwashing and BrainTrading system - the post.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
103845
Sergey Golubev  

USD/JPY: daily bullish breakout; possible weekly reversal (based on the article)

USD/JPY weekly chart by Brainwashing system, MT5

  • "USDJPY: Retail trader data shows 53.0% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.13 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 3.9% higher than yesterday and 4.1% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 3.1% lower than yesterday and 7.6% higher from last week."
  • "We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USDJPY prices may continue to fall. Positioning is more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed USDJPY trading bias."

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread
USDJPY Price Unclear Based on Mixed Sentiment
USDJPY Price Unclear Based on Mixed Sentiment
  • Abdullah AlAmoudi
  • www.dailyfx.com
USDJPY: Retail trader data shows 53.0% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.13 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 3.9% higher than yesterday and 4.1% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 3.1% lower than yesterday and 7.6% higher from last week. USDJPY Continues to Trades With...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
103845
Sergey Golubev  

Crypto News - Bitcoin: daily ranging near and above bullish reversal area; 6,446 and 4,629 are the keys (based on the article)

Bitcoin chart by Metatrader 5

  • "Since declining sharply on Sunday, the digital currency has fluctuated largely between $6,600 and $6,900, according to the CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index (BPI)."
  • "Over the last few hours, the cryptocurrency has moved slightly below that range, falling to as little as $6,455.92 by 19:15 UTC (3:15 p.m. EST), additional BPI figures show. At the time of report, the digital currency had recovered slightly, trading at $6,555.70."
  • ""Looking at history we don’t really see any reason for major support between $6,600 and $6,000," said David Johnson, CEO of cryptocurrency tasking platform Latium."

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with the following custom indicator:

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
103845
Sergey Golubev  

Dax Index - daily bullish ranging; 12,948 support is the key (based on the article)

Weekly price is breaking Ichimoku cloud to below: the price is testing 11,730 support level for the bearish reversal to be started.

Dax Index by Metatrader 5

  • "Lately, the DAX has been displaying messy price action, see-sawing back-and-forth with few clues as to what all the chop may mean. There is, however, one possibly bearish sequence developing should a lower-high maintain and continue along the path of building of a bear-flag. The bear-flag, if that is the eventual outcome, is arriving at an interesting spot given the underside parallel of the pattern is also the trend-line rising up from the March low. A break of the pattern would then have trend support violated in addition to pattern validation & a solid combination. In this situation a lower-low would need to develop below 12547 for momentum to pick up in a meaningful way. Given the choppiness of the bear-flag, this isn't the easiest scenario and could lead to further horizontal price action. But we'll run with what is presented to us and adjust accordingly."
  • "For the market to position itself for further strength, the grind higher at some point soon will need to pick up momentum and clear through the 12900s, but then also the trend-line off the record high and the May high at 13204. If it can do that, then a test of the old record high could be in order."

============

The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post

DAX Chart Take: What Current Price Action Could Mean Ahead of ECB
DAX Chart Take: What Current Price Action Could Mean Ahead of ECB
  • Paul Robinson
  • www.dailyfx.com
For a broader fundamental and technical outlook on major markets, and to see how our Top Trading Opportunities for 2018 are performing, check out the Lately, the DAX has been displaying messy price action, see-sawing back-and-forth with few clues as to what all the chop may mean. There is, however, one possibly bearish sequence developing...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
103845
Sergey Golubev  

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Employment Change and range price movement 

2018-06-14 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Employment Change]

  • past data is 18.3K
  • forecast data is 18.8K
  • actual data is 12.0K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month.

==========

From official report :

  • "Employment increased 12,000 to 12,518,300. Full-time employment decreased 20,600 to 8,521,400 and part-time employment increased 32,600 to 3,996,900.""Unemployment decreased 26,800 to 714,600. The number of unemployed persons looking for full-time work decreased 11,200 to 494,300 and the number of unemployed persons only looking for part-time work decreased 15,600 to 220,300.""Unemployment rate decreased by 0.2 pts to 5.4%."

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AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia Employment Change news event 

AUD/USD chart by Metatrader 5

AUD/USD chart by Metatrader 5

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After

6202.0 - Labour Force, Australia, May 2018
  • www.abs.gov.au
MAY KEY FIGURES MAY KEY POINTS TREND ESTIMATES (MONTHLY CHANGE) Employment increased 15,900 to 12,522,300. Unemployment decreased 1,500 to 723,700. Unemployment rate remained steady at 5.5%. Participation rate decreased by less than 0.1 pts to 65.5%. Monthly hours worked in all jobs increased 2.8 million hours (0.2%) to 1,747.1 million...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
103845
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD Intra-Day FundamentalsECB Interest Rate and range price movement 

2018-06-14 12:45 GMT | [EUR - ECB Interest Rate]

  • past data is 0.00%
  • forecast data is 0.00%
  • actual data is 0.00% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - ECB Interest Rate] = Interest rate on the main refinancing operations that provide the bulk of liquidity to the banking system.

==========

From official report :

  • "Third, the Governing Council decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019 and in any case for as long as necessary to ensure that the evolution of inflation remains aligned with the current expectations of a sustained adjustment path."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by ECB Interest Rate news event 

EUR/USD chart by Metatrader 5

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After

Monetary policy decisions
Monetary policy decisions
  • European Central Bank
  • www.ecb.europa.eu
At today’s meeting, which was held in Riga, the Governing Council of the ECB undertook a careful review of the progress towards a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation, also taking into account the latest Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections, measures of price and wage pressures, and uncertainties surrounding the inflation...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
103845
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD - daily bearish breakdown; weekly bearish reversal (based on the article)

EURUSD daily chart by MT5

  • "On Thursday, the ECB's cautious stance on the removal of monetary stimulus sent EUR/USD down sharply, the biggest move in recent memory. This has price support running back to 2015 and the January 2017 trend-line squarely under assault again."
  • "The thinking on this end is that we will see some backing-and-filling in the days ahead as the market digests the impact of Thursday's outcome. This could make for less-than-ideal trading conditions in the very near-term as the euro chops around. Overall, though, the bias right now is that any bounce from here, despite coming from support, is likely to be short-lived."

============

The chart was made on daily timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

EUR/USD Weekly Technical Outlook: ECB Slams Euro Back Down to Support
EUR/USD Weekly Technical Outlook: ECB Slams Euro Back Down to Support
  • Paul Robinson
  • www.dailyfx.com
Whether you are looking for trading forecasts for the Euro or another currency, trade ideas, or educational guides, we’ve got you covered on the the On Thursday, the ECB’s cautious stance on the removal of monetary stimulus sent EUR/USD down sharply, the biggest move in recent memory. This has price support running back to 2015 and the January...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
103845
Sergey Golubev  

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar Index (based on the article)

Dollar Index by MT5

Dollar Index"The US Dollar regained upward momentum last week, as expected. The currency emerged from a week loaded with high profile event risk with the strongest advance since late April. A hawkish monetary policy announcement from the Federal Reserve and a decidedly dovish one from the ECB did most of the work. The latter sank the EUR/USD exchange rate, which echoed as broader strength for the US unit. The docket thins out in the week ahead, with Friday’s release of June PMI surveys amounting to the only truly eye-catching bit of economic data. That puts the spotlight on a generous offering of commentary from Federal Reserve officials. A firmly hawkish narrative that reinforces the message from last week’s FOMC meeting might help reinforce an upside bias."

============

The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.

US Dollar: Trade Wars, Fed-Speak Line Up as Upside Catalysts
US Dollar: Trade Wars, Fed-Speak Line Up as Upside Catalysts
  • Ilya Spivak
  • www.dailyfx.com
. The currency emerged from a week loaded with high profile event risk with the strongest advance since late April. A hawkish monetary policy announcement from the Federal Reserve and a decidedly dovish one from the ECB did most of the work. The latter sank the EUR/USD exchange rate, which echoed as broader strength for the US unit. The docket...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
103845
Sergey Golubev  

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for AUD/USD (based on the article)

AUD/USD by MT5

AUD/USD"The Australian Dollar faces a lack of major, first-tier domestic economic data in the coming week and, given that last week’s full calendar saw AUD/USD appreciably lower, it might be reasonable to assume that a sparser calendar might bring some reprieve. The coming week won’t bring anything of comparable importance to the data table. Investors will get a look at the minutes of the last RBA policy meeting but, given that Lowe has already spoken since, these seem unlikely to add much to what’s already known –that the record low, 1.50% Official Cash Rate won’t be going anywhere soon."

============

The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.

Australian Dollar Faces Calmer Week, But That May Not Save It
Australian Dollar Faces Calmer Week, But That May Not Save It
  • David Cottle
  • www.dailyfx.com
The Australian Dollar faces a lack of major, first-tier domestic economic data in the coming week and, given that last week’s full calendar saw AUD/USD appreciably lower, it might be reasonable to assume that a sparser calendar might bring some reprieve. when he spoke in Melbourne. He praised the economy’s strong employment record and lauded...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
103845
Sergey Golubev  

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Yuan (based on the article)

USD/CNH by MT5

USD/CNH"This week, the USD/CNH broke above a long-term downtrend held since the mid of 2017, indicating a reversal in a longer time frame; the Yuan also lost against the EUR, JPY, GBP and CHF. Looking forward, the USD/CNH will likely continue the bullish trend (bearish for the Yuan); volatility in the pair is expected to elevate as the US and China have resumed tariff battles despite of rounds of negotiations. In the near term, volatility in the USD/CNH could rise amid the resumed US-China trade war. Despite of rounds of negotiations between senior U.S. and Chinese government officials over the past few weeks, the two parties failed to reach a consensus. On June 15, the U.S. issued the final list of approximately $50 billion Chinese imports that will be placed with a 25% tariff. A major focus is on “Made in China 2025” policy related products."

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After


Yuan May Extend Losses Amid Weak Fundamentals, US-China Tariff Battles
Yuan May Extend Losses Amid Weak Fundamentals, US-China Tariff Battles
  • Renee Mu
  • www.dailyfx.com
This week, the USD/CNH broke above a long-term downtrend held since the mid of 2017, indicating a reversal in a longer time frame; the Yuan also lost against the EUR, JPY, GBP and CHF. Looking forward, the USD/CNH will likely continue the bullish trend (bearish for the Yuan); volatility in the pair is expected to elevate as the US and China...
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