Press review - page 606

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Trading News Events: U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (based on article)

Updates to the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may curb the recent weakness in EUR/USD as the growth rate is anticipated to slow to an annualized 2.0% from 2.9%. 

What’s Expected:

Metatrader 5

Why Is This Event Important:

Bear in mind, market participants may put greater emphasis on the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), the Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation, as the reading is projected to increase 2.6% during the first three-months of 2018, which would mark the fastest pace of growth since 2007. Signs of heightening price pressures may ultimately trigger a bullish reaction in the U.S. dollar as it puts pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to extend the hiking-cycle.

However, a series of below-forecast data prints may sap the appeal of the greenback, and EUR/USD may stage a near-term rebound as market participants scale back bets for four Fed rate-hikes in 2018.

How To Trade This Event Risk

  • Near-term outlook for EUR/USD remains tilted to the downside as it extends the series of lower highs & lows from the previous week, with the pair clearing the March-low (1.2155).
  • Close below 1.2130 (50% retracement) raises the risk for a move towards 1.1960 (38.2% retracement) to 1.1970 (23.% expansion), with the next region of interest coming in around 1.1810 (61.8% retracement) followed by the Fibonacci overlap around 1.1670 (78.6% expansion) to 1.1680 (50% retracement).
  • Keep a close eye on the RSI as it approaches oversold territory, with move below 30 raising the risk for a further decline in the exchange rate as the bearish momentum gathers pace.
Potential Price Targets For The Release
EURUSD Daily


EURUSD chart by Metatrader 5

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The chart was made on D1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

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EUR/USD M1: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) news event 


EUR/USD Extends Bearish Sequence Ahead of 1Q U.S. GDP Report
EUR/USD Extends Bearish Sequence Ahead of 1Q U.S. GDP Report
  • David Song
  • www.dailyfx.com
Advanced 1Q U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to Show Growth Rate Slowing to Annualized 2.0% from 2.9%. Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) to Climb to 2.6% from 1.9%. Trading the News: U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Updates to the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may curb the recent weakness in EUR/USD as the growth rate is...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand Overseas Merchandise Trade and range price movement 

2018-04-26 23:45 GMT | [NZD - Trade Balance]

  • past data is 172M
  • forecast data is 270M
  • actual data is -86M according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

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From official report :

  • "Goods exports rose $265 million (5.8 percent) to $4.9 billion."
  • "Goods imports rose $612 million (14 percent) to $4.9 billion."
  • "The monthly trade balance was a deficit of $86 million (1.8 percent of exports)."
  • "The March 2018 deficit was the first March deficit since 2008."

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NZD/USD M15: range price movement by New Zealand Overseas Merchandise Trade news event 

NZDUSD chart by Metatrader 5

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After

Imports and exports | Stats NZ
  • www.stats.govt.nz
Find statistics about New Zealand's overseas trade of goods and services.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Crypto News - Bitcoin:  bouncing near bullish reversal (based on the article)

Daily price is bouncing from Senkou Span line and from 9,759 resistance level to below for the daily bearish trend to be resumed, otherwise - the bullish reversal will be started.

Bitcoin chart by Metatrader 5

  • "Bitcoin: Retail trader data shows 73.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.74 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 3.6% lower than yesterday and 6.6% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 1.7% lower than yesterday and 7.5% lower from last week."
  • "We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Bitcoin prices may continue to fall. Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed Bitcoin trading bias."

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After

Bitcoin Price in Question As Traders Shift Positioning
Bitcoin Price in Question As Traders Shift Positioning
  • Dylan Jusino
  • www.dailyfx.com
Bitcoin: Retail trader data shows 73.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.74 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 3.6% lower than yesterday and 6.6% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 1.7% lower than yesterday and 7.5% lower from last week. We...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD - daily price is testing 200-SMA for the bearish reversal to be started (based on the article)

Daily price broke 55-SMA to below for the ranging market condition: the price is testing 200-SMA for the bearish reversal to be started.

  • "The EURUSD range of 2018 has been a frustration to many traders, however, EURUSD did at long lost make a break through the YTD low at 1.2154, forming a near term base at 1.2050 (200DMA) after breaching the 2017 peak at 1.2093. The question among traders is whether this will be a sign for a bearish trend forming?"
  • "Looking ahead to next week, the key risk event will be the FOMC meeting and as is usually the case on the first Friday of a new month, we will see the release of the latest US NFP report for April, whereby the headline figure is expected to show a reading of 185k, while wage growth is seen remaining at 0.3%. These events will likely be the biggest market moving events of the week and could be the catalyst needed for a bearish set up."
  • "Having broken through the range low of 1.2154, EURUSD looks intent on making a move for 1.2000, near-term support is situated at the new base of 1.2050, which also marks the 200DMA, while EURUSD selling could potentially be curbed by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2033 of the 2017-2018 rise (1.0340-1.2556)."

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5


EUR/USD Weekly Technical Forecast: Potential Euro Set up for a Bearish Trend
EUR/USD Weekly Technical Forecast: Potential Euro Set up for a Bearish Trend
  • Justin McQueen
  • www.dailyfx.com
The EURUSD range of 2018 has been a frustration to many traders, however, EURUSD did at long lost make a break through the YTD low at 1.2154, forming a near term base at 1.2050 (200DMA) after breaching the 2017 peak at 1.2093. The question among traders is whether this will be a sign for a bearish trend forming? Looking ahead to next week, the...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Dow Jones Industrial Average - daily bearish to be started; weekly ranging near bearish reversal (based on the article)



  • "The stellar earnings of last week from some of the largest companies could not move the market significantly higher as the major averages were mostly lower. Only the Dow Utilities were able to close the week with significant gains as it was up 2.5%."

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Apple - daily reversal to be started (based on the article)

Apple chart by MT5

  • "Apple's stock is down about 9% since Wall Street went into "full panic mode." Ahead of Apple's earnings on Tuesday, John Archer added to his position reasoning that Apple will either surprise Wall Street to the upside or they will solve whatever problems they have within his investment horizon. Here's the best argument for an upside surprise from Apple on Tuesday."
  • "The panic started after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) lowered its revenue guidance for Q2 due to weak demand. TSMC did not blame Apple for its lowered guidance, but that is what Wall Street inferred especially after AMS, another major Apple supplier, said it expects sales for the current quarter to be down nearly 50 percent from last quarter."
  • "We will know on Tuesday whether iPhone volumes have declined enough to justify a drop of 9%. But, I suspect that Apple's iPhone volumes have dropped but their revenue and earnings will meet or exceed Wall Street's expectations. If I'm wrong, the 9% drop Apple's stock has already sustained combined with its relatively low valuation compared to other tech stocks will limit the impact from a bad report."

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ANZ Business Confidence and range price movement 

2018-04-30 02:00 GMT | [NZD - ANZ Business Confidence]

  • past data is -20.0
  • forecast data is n/a
  • actual data is -23.4 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Trade Balance] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers, builders, retailers, agricultural firms, and service providers.

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From forexlive article :

  • "New Zealand April ANZ business confidence -23.4 vs -20.0 prior."
  • "The reading is based on a survey rating the economic outlook over the next 12 months. A reading above 0.0 indicates optimism while a reading below that indicates pessimism. It is a general gauge of business and economic sentiment towards the New Zealand economy."

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NZD/USD M5: range price movement by ANZ Business Confidence news event 

NZDUSD chart by Metatrader 5

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


Overseas merchandise trade: March 2018 | Stats NZ
  • www.stats.govt.nz
Goods exports rose $265 million and goods imports rose $612 million in the March 2018 month compared with March 2017.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand Employment Change and range price movement 

2018-05-01 23:45 GMT | [NZD - Employment Change]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people.

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From businessinsider article :

  • "The unemployment rate in New Zealand came in at a seasonally adjusted 4.4 percent in the first quarter of 2018, Statistics New Zealand said on Wednesday. That was in line with expectations and down from 4.5 percent in the three months prior."
  • "The employment change was 0.6 percent on quarter and 3.1 percent on year."

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NZD/USD M5: range price movement by New Zealand Employment Change news event 

NZDUSD chart by Metatrader 5

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post together with the following indicators from CodeBase:

Insights | Stats NZ
  • www.stats.govt.nz
Find insights and data about New Zealand. You can filter results by topic, information release, and content type.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

USD/CNH Intra-Day FundamentalsCaixin Manufacturing PMI and range price movement 

2018-05-02 02:45 GMT | [CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

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From official report :

  • "The headline seasonally adjusted Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) – a composite indicator designed to provide a single-figure snapshot of operating conditions in the manufacturing economy – registered 51.1 in April, up fractionally from 51.0 in March. Operating conditions have now strengthened in each of the past 11 months, though the pace of improvement was only marginal.""Manufacturing production in China continued to increase during April. That said, the rate of expansion was modest, despite picking up slightly since March. According to panellists, output was raised in line with higher new order inflows. Indeed, latest data showed that total new business rose at the start of the second quarter, albeit at the slowest pace for seven months. Data indicated that weaker demand in international markets had partly weighed on overall growth, with new export sales declining for the first time since November 2016 (though only marginally)."

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USD/CNH M15: range price movement by Caixin Manufacturing PMI news event 

USDCNH chart by Metatrader 5

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: intra-day bearish breakdown; daily bullish ranging near bearish reversal

2017-05-02 15:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

  • past data is 2.2M
  • forecast data is 1.0M
  • actual data is 6.2M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

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"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 6.2 million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil M5: bearish breakdown. The price is testing support level at 72.37 to below for the bearish breakdown to be continuing.

If the price breaks 72.90 resistance level to above on M5 close bar so the bullish reversal will be started.
If the price breaks 72.37 support level to below on M5 close bar so the bearish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.


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Crude Oil Daily: correction to breakdown. Daily price is breaking 72.73 support level to below for the secondary correction to be continuing. By the way, the daily bearish reversal level is 66.68 so if the price breaks this level to below on close daily bar - the bearish reversal will be started, otherwise - strong bullish or the ranging bullish market codnition.


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Chart #1.
The chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

Chart #2.
The chart was made on D1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase: