Press review - page 609

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand Retail Sales and range price movement 

2018-05-20 23:45 GMT | [NZD - Retail Sales]

  • past data is 1.4% 
  • forecast data is 1.0%
  • actual data is 0.1% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level.

==========

From official report :

  • "The total volume of retail sales rose 0.1 percent."
  • "Industry movements were divided, with 7 showing higher sales volumes and 8 showing lower sales volumes."
  • "Electrical and electronic goods had the largest dollar volume increase in this series, up 5.4 percent. Trends for the sales volume in this industry have been rising over the past 10 years; coincidently price changes in this industry have generally fallen over the same period."
  • "Supermarket and grocery stores, plus pharmaceutical and other store-based industries, both recorded notable increases for the March 2018 quarter, up 1.0 percent and 2.7 percent, respectively."

==========

NZD/USD M5: range price movement by New Zealand Retail Sales news event 

NZD/USD by Metatrader 5

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5: 

Retail trade survey: March 2018 quarter | Stats NZ
  • www.stats.govt.nz
For the March 2018 quarter compared with the December 2017 quarter, the seasonally adjusted total volume of retail sales rose 0.1 percent.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

Dollar Index - strong daily bullish to be continuing (based on the article)

Dollar Index by Metatrader 5

  • "The march higher in US Yields has been doing much of the heavy lifting for the US Dollar. The question now is what will stop the ever-rising yields?  The onslaught of supply at Treasury auctions and stable US economic data combined with rising commodities (namely, energy) seem to speak to an environment ripe for rising yields, and thus, a rising US Dollar. Traders are often quick to identify a theme and then identify winners and losers within the theme."
  • "There has been a shift since mid-April in favor of long USD positioning among short-term or leveraged investors in recent weeks, and questions remain as to whether real money buyers will also get behind US Dollar strength. Real Money has staying power and can help put in a higher floor behind a market."
  • "The increase in bullish USD positioning has come mostly against European currencies. EUR net longs have fallen $6bn ($23.4bn to $17.0bn) since April 20 release or on April 17 data ($0.8bn this week.) GBP net longs have decreased by $4bn ($0.3bn this week.) CHF net shorts have increased by $3bn ($0.5bn this week.) Meanwhile, AUD accounted for $0.9bn of this increase over the last month. Bearish AUD positioning increased by $0.5bn this week."

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicator:

More about BrainTrading:

  1. BrainTrending indicators to download with template.
  2. Rules to trade manually
  3. How to install  
  4. TSD DS jurik BrainTrading system - the key thread
  5. TSD BrainTrading Stochastics system - the post
  6. BrainTrading Semi-Manual EA for M30 timeframe system - the thread 
  7. The differences between Brainwashing and BrainTrading system - the post.
US Dollar Rides Rising Yields As Institutions Unwind USD Short Positions
US Dollar Rides Rising Yields As Institutions Unwind USD Short Positions
  • Tyler Yell, CMT
  • www.dailyfx.com
the US Dollar is taking no prisoners. In mid-April, the aggregate US Dollar short position was at a seven-year high. Since April 17, futures have continued to pare USD out as the US Dollar advances from EUR/USD breaking below the 55-WMA to Emerging Markets that are stronger in aggregate, but still vulnerable in parts. Lastly, the British...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

Crypto News - Bitcoin daily: ranging for direction; 7,924 is the key (based on the article)

Cryptocurrencies are trending lower for a second straight day, as sentiment was damped by some dismal predictions regarding the future for the top cryptocurrency, Bitcoin.

Bitcoin daily chart by Metatrader 5

  • "Australians lost nearly A$2.1 million in crypto scams in 2017, as the popularity of cryptocurrencies peaked in the final quarter of the year. Cryptocurrency prices surged in the final quarter of 2017, with Bitcoin hitting a high of around US$20,000."
  • "Crypterium, the world's first mobile crypto bank, appointed the former chief of the credit card giant VISA's UK and Ireland division, Marc O'Brien, as its Chief Executive Officer. He was also a long time advisor to MasterCard."
  • "Indian Bitcoin exchange Bitxoxo has launched an Initial Coin Offering (ICO) after a successful pre-sale event that ended on April 30 selling 5 million XOXO tokens. The main ICO event for 10 million tokens at $2 per token went live on May 5 and will end on May 31."

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After

Cryptocurrency Daily Roundup - May 22
Cryptocurrency Daily Roundup - May 22
  • 2018.05.22
  • www.rttnews.com
Cryptocurrencies are trending lower for a second straight day, as sentiment was damped by some dismal predictions regarding the future for the top cryptocurrency, Bitcoin.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

USD/JPY - daily bullish; 111.39 resistance is the key (based on the article)

USD/JPY chart by MT5

  • "The Japanese Yen is staging a very modest fightback against the US Dollar after weeks of unrelenting bullishness towards the greenback. USD/JPY seems tentatively to have made some kind of top at last Monday’s intraday high. That came in at 111.39. The US Dollar has been declining since, part of a broad based retracement which has seen it lower against the New Zealand and Australian Dollars too, even if the Euro remains under a bit of pressure thanks to political worries in Italy."
  • "Still, it may not make sense to bet on a comprehensive turnaround in US Dollar sentiment just yet. USD/JPY's retracement has been quite modest and for the moment at least seems limited to a support zone derived from the previous significant peaks, which were made in early February."

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After

USD/JPY Rate Forecast: Knock, Knock, Knocking on Key 108-Level
USD/JPY Rate Forecast: Knock, Knock, Knocking on Key 108-Level
  • Tyler Yell, CMT
  • www.dailyfx.com
A key benefit of FX is that the valuation of any currency is relative. In other words, a weak currency can rise if bought against an even weaker currency. Such a scenario may be the fate of a weak USD rising against a weaker Japanese Yen as a fiscal new year in Japan could engage renewed capital Lack of FX Volatility May Give Time for Risk to...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

GBP/USD Intra-Day FundamentalsU.K. Consumer Price Index and range price movement 

2018-05-23 09:30 GMT | [GBP - CPI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

==========

From official report :

  • "The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) 12-month inflation rate was 2.2% in April 2018, down from 2.3% in March 2018."
  • "The rate has fallen back from a recent high of 2.8% during autumn 2017 resulting in the April 2018 figure being the lowest observed since January 2017."
  • "The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate was 2.4% in April 2018, down from 2.5% in March 2018."

==========

GBP/USD M5: range price movement by U.K. Consumer Price Index news event 

GBPUSD by MT5

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5: 

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD - global bearish reversal; 1.1554 is the key (based on the article)


  • "Retail trader data shows 58.4% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.4 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Apr 30 when EURUSD traded near 1.21294; price has moved 3.5% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 9.8% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 16.7% lower than yesterday and 14.5% lower from last week."
  • "We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EURUSD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger EURUSD-bearish contrarian trading bias."

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand Overseas Merchandise Trade and range price movement 

2018-05-23 23:45 GMT | [NZD - Trade Balance]

  • past data is -156M 
  • forecast data is 200M
  • actual data is 263M according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

==========

From rttnews article :

  • "New Zealand posted a merchandise trade surplus of NZ$263 million in April, Statistics New Zealand said on Thursday - representing 5.2 percent on exports. That exceeded forecasts for a NZ$198 million surplus following the NZ$156 million deficit in March."

==========

NZD/USD M5: range price movement by New Zealand Overseas Merchandise Trade news event 


==========

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5: 

Imports and exports | Stats NZ
  • www.stats.govt.nz
Find statistics about New Zealand's overseas trade of goods and services.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

Crypto News - Bitcoin price on daily bearish; 7,265 is the key (based on the article)

Bitcoin daily price was bounced from Senkou Span lines/Ichimoku cloud to below for the bearish trend to be started. The price is testing support level at 7,265 for the bearish trend to be continuing.

Bitcoin chart by Metatrader 5

  • "Retail trader data shows 76.0% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 3.17 to 1. The percentage of traders net-long is now its highest since Apr 26 when Bitcoin traded near 9183.39. The number of traders net-long is 1.3% higher than yesterday and 1.1% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.0% lower than yesterday and 9.0% lower from last week."
  • "We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Bitcoin prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Bitcoin-bearish contrarian trading bias."

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread
Bitcoin Teeters at 7500 with Bearish Signal
Bitcoin Teeters at 7500 with Bearish Signal
  • Abdullah AlAmoudi
  • www.dailyfx.com
Bitcoin: Retail trader data shows 76.0% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 3.17 to 1. The percentage of traders net-long is now its highest since Apr 26 when Bitcoin traded near 9183.39. The number of traders net-long is 1.3% higher than yesterday and 1.1% higher from last week, while the number of traders...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD - weekly ranging near 200-SMA bearish reversal (based on the article)

Weekly price broke 55-SMA to below for the ranging market condition: the price is testing 200-SMA for the bearish reversal to be started.

EURUSD Weekly chart by Metatrader 5

  • "The theme of selling EURUSD has shown no signs of abating with the pair now trading around the mid-1.16 area. Last week saw the trendline dating back to January 2017 offer some mild support on Wednesday, however, another bout of Euro weakness saw the trendline support ultimately breached. A close below the trendline could provide a telling sign that another leg lower will be in store for the pair."
  • "As we look ahead to next week, risk events on the calendar for the Euro will come in the form of the Eurozone inflation and the latest US NFP report. In terms price action, the aforementioned breach of the Jan'17 trendline sets up run in on the 2016 high situated at 1.1616, while a weekly low from November 7th at 1.1553 looks to be pivotal, a break below will likely see an extension of the bear run. Resistance on the topside resides at 1.1709, marking the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of the 1.0340-1.2556 rise, alongside 1.1750 (May 24th high)."
  • "EURUSD bulls on the longer term may find comfort in the fact that the Relative Strength Index on the daily chart is in oversold territory, which could indicate that the pair may see a modest reversal in the near-term. However, when the pair has previously been in oversold territory the rebound has been mild at best and followed by another wave of selling."

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5


EUR/USD Weekly Technical Forecast: Potential Euro Set up for a Bearish Trend
EUR/USD Weekly Technical Forecast: Potential Euro Set up for a Bearish Trend
  • Justin McQueen
  • www.dailyfx.com
The EURUSD range of 2018 has been a frustration to many traders, however, EURUSD did at long lost make a break through the YTD low at 1.2154, forming a near term base at 1.2050 (200DMA) after breaching the 2017 peak at 1.2093. The question among traders is whether this will be a sign for a bearish trend forming? Looking ahead to next week, the...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar Index (based on the article)

Dollar Index by MT5

Dollar Index - "The US Dollar continued to push higher last week, hitting a six-month high against an average of its major counterparts. The release of minutes from the May 2 FOMC meeting inspired a pullback. The document did not advance the case for further steepening of the expected rate hike path. Markets took that as reason enough for a correction, but this proved to be short-lived. Top-tier economic data returns in the week ahead. The Fed’s favored PCE inflation gauge is expected to see on-year price growth holding at the target 2 percent for the second consecutive month while official labor-market statistics show job creation narrowly accelerated in May. On balance, such outcomes are likely to keep rate hike bets at status quo, neither advancing the cautiously hawkish narrative nor derailing it."

============

The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.

US Dollar Rally Poised to Continue as Market Sentiment Sours
US Dollar Rally Poised to Continue as Market Sentiment Sours
  • Ilya Spivak
  • www.dailyfx.com
The US Dollar continued to push higher last week, hitting a six-month high against an average of its major counterparts. The release of minutes from the May 2 FOMC meeting inspired a pullback. The document did not advance the case for further steepening of the expected rate hike path. Markets took that as reason enough for a correction, but...