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Seasonal Alpha Indicator

Demo downloaded: 2

Published: 14 June 2026

Current version: 3.50

Seasonal Alpha Indicator

Indicators
Dr. Pieter Mergenthaler
Dr. Pieter Mergenthaler
Germany

835
1 topic 17 comments
Version: 3.50
Activations: 5

Seasonal Alpha Indicator turns years of seasonal behavior into a clear, on-chart trading window for stocks and other assets.

It studies many years of daily history for the symbol on your chart, measures how that market has typically behaved at this time of year, and projects the seasonal pattern forward. It locates the strongest seasonal window, marks the entry and exit on the chart, and backs every read with statistics and a transparent filter score. Built for the daily (D1) timeframe.

On the chart:

A projected seasonal path drawn to the right of today, with optional per-year fan lines and a min and max envelope.
Entry and exit markers for the detected window, with the projected seasonal move.
An optional overlay of each past year's realized window trade on the real candles, green for winning years, red for losing years.

The KPI dashboard:

Seasonal Window: direction, phase (upcoming, in progress, completed), entry and exit dates and prices, window length and projected move.
Confidence: the share of the twelve scientific filters that agree, labeled strong, moderate or weak.
Return Profile: the hit rate across the lookback years, plus average, best, worst and standard deviation.
Seasonal Equity Curve: the same fixed window compounded year by year.

Twelve scientific filters, scored together: Trend (MA200), Volatility (ATR), Halloween Window, Pre-Election Year, Mean Reversion (RSI2), Turn of Month, Momentum 12-1, 52-Week High Proximity, Odd and Even Year, Year-to-Date Trend, First Five Days and January Barometer.

Full control on the chart: a built-in panel adjusts lookback years, forecast horizon, entry window, scan direction and scope, and toggles every view live, with no settings dialog and no reload.

Your data, three ways:

Run directly on your broker's chart bars, with zero setup.
Or place your own daily CSV files in a folder MQL5\Files\SAT_History.
Or fill that folder automatically with the companion product Seasonal History Downloader.
The indicator cannot run a web request by itself to download external long term price data.

Best for daily charts on equity indices and single stocks. On forex, metals and energy, read the filters as context rather than as hard signals.

Please note: results are historical, in-sample and hypothetical, depend on data quality and settings, and are no guarantee of future performance. For educational purposes only, not investment advice. Trading involves a substantial risk of loss.

Part of the Seasonal Alpha series. Receive full user and methodology guide upon request.

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One-click daily history for the Seasonal Alpha Indicator. Seasonal History Downloader fetches up to 25 years of daily OHLCV data from Yahoo Finance and saves it as clean CSV files in MQL5\Files\SAT_History, exactly the folder and format that other products in the Seasonal Alpha series (e.g. Seasonal Alpha Indicator ) read. Deeper history means a more meaningful hit rate, fan and equity curve. Broker independent. What it does: Reads your Market Watch, all symbols or a custom symbol list. Download

30 USD

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Seasonal Alpha Indicator

Dr. Pieter Mergenthaler