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Forecast and levels for NZD/USD - page 2

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Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.17 06:16

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand Producer Price Index and range price movement 

2017-05-16 23:45 GMT | [NZD - PPI Input]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - PPI Input] = Change in the price of goods and raw materials purchased by manufacturers. 

==========

From official report:

  • "The input PPI rose 0.8 percent."
  • "The output producers price index (PPI) rose 1.4 percent."

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NZD/USD M5: range price movement by New Zealand Producer Price Index news event



Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.24 10:52

NZD/USD: Bullish: Immediate target of 0.7050/55 (based on efxnews article)


United Overseas Bank (UOB) is evaluating the market condition for this pair daily price as a bulish in case 0.7047/50/55 targets will be broken to above:

  • "We turned bullish NZD yesterday and there is no change to the view. NZD rose quickly to hit a high of 0.7047 which is just below our immediate target of 0.7050/55."
  • "Overbought short-term indicators could lead to a couple of days of consolidation but as long as 0.6930 is not taken out, the prospect for a break above 0.7050/55 appears to be quite high. A move above 0.7050/55 would shift the focus to 0.7090."

Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.30 07:37

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand Building Approvals and range price movement 

2017-05-29 23:45 GMT | [NZD - Building Permits]

  • past data is -1.2%
  • forecast data is n/a
  • actual data is -7.6% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Building Permits] = Change in the number of new building approvals issued. 

==========

From official report:

  • "The seasonally adjusted number of new dwellings consented fell 7.6 percent, partly due to the timing of Easter."
  • "The trend for the number of new dwellings consented is showing signs of increasing. It reached a 12-year high in mid-2016, but decreased towards the end of the year."

==========

NZD/USD M5: range price movement by New Zealand Building Approvals news event


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Sergey Golubev
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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.02 15:00

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, NZD/USD and USD/CAD: Non-Farm Employment Change

2017-06-02 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Payrolls]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Payrolls] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

==========

From official report:

  • "Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 138,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported  today. Job gains occurred in health care and mining."
  • "The unemployment rate, at 4.3 percent, and the number of unemployed persons, at 6.9 million, changed little in May. Since January, the unemployment rate has declined by 0.5 percentage point, and the number of unemployed has decreased by 774,000."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events


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NZD/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events


==========

USD/CAD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events


==========


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
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Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.14 07:48

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand Current Account and range price movement 

2017-06-13 23:45 GMT | [NZD - Current Account]

  • past data is -2.42B
  • forecast data is 0.95B
  • actual data is 0.24B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Current Account] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods, services, income flows, and unilateral transfers during the previous quarter. 

==========

From official report:

  • "New Zealand's seasonally adjusted current account balance was a $2,836 million deficit in the March 2017 quarter ($1,143 million larger than the December 2016 quarter's deficit)."
  • "For the year ended March 2017, the current account deficit was $8.1 billion (3.1 percent of GDP; it was 3.1 percent of GDP for the March 2016 year)."

==========

NZD/USD M5: range price movement by New Zealand Current Account news event



Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.15 08:19

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand Gross Domestic Product and range price movement 

2017-06-14 23:45 GMT | [NZD - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. 

==========

From official report :


  • "Economic activity, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), grew 0.5 percent in the March 2017 quarter, following 0.4 percent growth in the December 2016 quarter."

==========

NZD/USD M5: range price movement by NZ GDP news event


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.22 09:07

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBNZ Official Cash Rate and range price movement 

2017-06-21 22:00 GMT | [NZD - Official Cash Rate]

  • past data is 1.75%
  • forecast data is 1.75%
  • actual data is 1.75% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Official Cash Rate] = Interest rate at which banks lend balances held at the RBNZ to other banks overnight. 

==========

From official report :

  • "The Reserve Bank today left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 1.75 percent."
  • "GDP growth in the March quarter was lower than expected, with weaker export volumes and residential construction partially offset by stronger consumption.  Nevertheless, the growth outlook remains positive, supported by accommodative monetary policy, strong population growth, and high terms of trade.  Recent changes announced inBudget 2017 should support the outlook for growth."

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NZD/USD M5: range price movement by RBNZ Official Cash Rate news event


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.27 08:44

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Overseas Merchandise Trade and range price movement 

2017-06-26 23:45 GMT | [USD - Trade Balance]

  • past data is 536M
  • forecast data is 420M
  • actual data is 103M according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[USD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month. 

==========

From official report :

  • "The monthly trade balance was a surplus of $103 million (2.1 percent of exports)."
  • "The annual trade deficit widened to $3.8 billion, from $3.6 billion in April 2017."

==========

NZD/USD M5: range price movement by NZ Overseas Merchandise Trade news event


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.03 17:51

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, NZD/USD and GOLD (XAU/USD): ISM Manufacturing PMI

2017-07-03 15:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

==========

From official report :

  • "The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: "The June PMI® registered 57.8 percent, an increase of 2.9 percentage points from the May reading of 54.9 percent. The New Orders Index registered 63.5 percent, an increase of 4 percentage points from the May reading of 59.5 percent. The Production Index registered 62.4 percent, a 5.3 percentage point increase compared to the May reading of 57.1 percent."
  • "The Employment Index registered 57.2 percent, an increase of 3.7 percentage points from the May reading of 53.5 percent. The Supplier Deliveries index registered 57 percent, a 3.9 percentage point increase from the May reading of 53.1 percent."

==========

EUR/USD M5: range price movement by ISM Manufacturing PMI news events


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NZD/USD M5: range price movement by ISM Manufacturing PMI news events


==========

XAU/USD M5: range price movement by ISM Manufacturing PMI news events



Sergey Golubev
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99668
Sergey Golubev  

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.10 09:50

NZD/USD - bullish ranging within narrow s/r levels; 0.7343 and 0.7102 are the keys (based on the article)

Daily price broke 200 period SMA to above on the good breakout movement to be reversed to the primary bullish market condition. The price is on ranging within 0.7343/0.7101 support/resistance levelfor the bullish trend to be continuing or to the bearish reversal to be started.


  • "The New Zealand Dollar is struggling to build downside momentum after seeming breaking the bounds of the upswing launched from mid-May lows. Still, overall positioning suggests that the choppy bearish trend defining price action since early September 2016 may be resuming."
  • "Near-term support is in the 0.7259-63 area (14.6% Fibonacci expansion, former resistance). A break below that on a daily closing basis opens the door for a test of the 0.7208-15 zone (chart inflection point, 23.6% level). Alternatively, a push above the June 30 high at 0.7347 exposes a double top at 0.7382."


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