Forecast and levels for NZD - page 6

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.12.19 06:40

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ANZ Business Confidence and range price movement 

2017-12-19 00:00 GMT | [NZD - Business Confidence]

  • past data is -39.3
  • forecast data is n/a
  • actual data is -37.8 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Business Confidence] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers, builders, retailers, agricultural firms, and service providers. 

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From rttnews article :

  • "Business confidence in New Zealand showed a slight improvement in December, although it remains broadly pessimistic, the latest survey from ANZ Bank showed on Tuesday."
  • "The bank's business confidence index came in with a score of -37.8, up from -39.3 in November but still deep in negative territory."

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NZD/USD M15: range price movement by ANZ Business Confidence news event 


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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.12.21 12:30

NZD/USD - daily ranging; 0.7033 is the key for the bullish reversal (based on the article)

Daily price is located inside ichimoku cloud for the rabging market condition: the price is breaking resistance levels at 0.7033 to above for the daily bullish reversal to be started.


  • "The New Zealand Dollar is struggling to sustain upward momentum having recovered to the highest level in two months against its US counterpart. A choppy range has been carved out below trend-defining resistance, hinting that recent gains might be corrective within a still-valid downward trend."
  • "From here, a daily close above trend line resistance in the 0.7024-43 area opens the door for a challenge of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7078. Alternatively, a move back below the 23.6% level at 0.6964 paves the way for a retest of former range top resistance at 0.6911, now recast as support."
  • "The short NZD/USD position triggered at 0.6895 was stopped out as prices soared amid a broad-based US Dollar selloff inspired by last week’s FOMC policy announcement. Re-entering the trade seems premature absent an actionable reversal signal, making the sidelines appear most attractive for the time being."

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The chart was made on W1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.01.18 15:06

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, NZD/USD and GOLD: U.S. Housing Starts

2018-01-18 13:30 GMT | [USD - Housing Starts]

  • past data is 1.30M
  • forecast data is 1.28M
  • actual data is 1.19M according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Housing Starts] = Annualized number of new residential buildings that began construction during the previous month.

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From cnbc article :

  • "U.S. homebuilding fell more than expected in December, recording its biggest drop in just over a year, amid a steep decline in the construction of single-family housing units following two months of hefty gains."
  • "Housing starts decreased 8.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.192 million units, the Commerce Department said on Thursday. November's sales pace was revised up to 1.299 million units from the previously reported 1.297 million units."
  • "December's percentage drop was the largest since November 2016. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast housing starts decreasing to a pace of 1.275 million units last month."

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EUR/USD M1: range price movement by U.S. Housing Starts news events


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NZD/USD M1: range price movement by U.S. Housing Starts news events


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XAU/USD M1: range price movement by U.S. Housing Starts news events


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The charts were made on MT5 with MA Channel Stochastic system uploaded on this post, and using standard indicators from Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.01.30 17:16

Intra-Day Fundamentals - NZD/USD, USD/CNH and Dollar Index: The Conference Board United States Consumer Confidence Index

2018-01-30 15:00 GMT | [USD - CB Consumer Confidence]

  • past data is 123.1
  • forecast data is 123.2
  • actual data is 125.4 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CB Consumer Confidence] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed households.

==========

From official report :

  • "The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased in January, following a decline in December. The Index now stands at 125.4 (1985=100), up from 123.1 in December. The Present Situation Index decreased slightly, from 156.5 to 155.3, while the Expectations Index increased from 100.8 last month to 105.5 this month."

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NZD/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. CB Consumer Confidence  news events

NZD/USD Confidence news events

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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by U.S. CB Consumer Confidence  news events

USD/CNH CB Consumer Confidence

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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by U.S. CB Consumer Confidence  news events

Dollar Index - CB Consumer Confidence

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.02.06 11:01

NZD/USD - daily bullish ranging within narrow s/r levels (based on the article)

Daily price is on narrow ranging within 0.7419 resistance level for the bullish trend to be continuing and 0.7259 support level for the secondary correction to be started. By the way, 0.7036 is the daily bearish reversal level, and if the price breaks this level to below so the bearish reversal will be started.

NZDUSD

  • "The New Zealand Dollar turned lower as expected, breaking the rising trend guiding the currency higher against its US counterpart since early December. The plunge played out against a backdrop of risk aversion that gripped financial markets amid worries about a steep Fed rate hike cycle."
  • "Near-term support is now at 0.7186, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below that on a daily closing basis opening the door for a challenge of the 50% level at 0.7109. Alternatively, a move back above the 23.6% Fib at 0.7282 and support-turned-resistance at 0.7321 exposes 0.7434 anew."
  • "The bearish chart setup appeared to be reinforced by attractive risk/reward parameters and a short NZD/USD position was activated at 0.7275, initially targeting 0.7186. A stop-loss will be activated on a daily close above 0.7321. Partial profit will be booked and the stop-loss trailed to breakeven upon hitting the first objective."

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.02.14 08:36

NZD/USD - bullish ranging near daily bearish reversal (based on the article)

Daily price is on ranging within 0.7450 resistance level for the bullish trend to be resumed and for the 0.7176 support level for the daily bearish reversal to be started.

NZD/USD

  • "The New Zealand Dollar is attempting a cautious recovery against its US namesake but overall positioning continues to hint the path of least resistance favors the downside. The currency found interim support near the 0.72 figure but a series of lower highs and lows defining the near-term trend remains intact."
  • "An immediate upside barrier comes in at 0.7332, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis opening the door for a challenge of the 0.7428-34 area (38.2% level, September 20 high). Alternatively, a move below the 38.2% Fib retracement exposes the 50% threshold at 0.7109."

============

The chart was made on D1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.03.15 02:58

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand's Gross Domestic Product and range price movement 

2018-03-14 21:45 GMT | [NZD - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[NZD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. 

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From official report :

  • "Economic activity, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), was up 0.6 percent in the December 2017 quarter, the second quarter in a row it rose 0.6 percent."
  • "Higher activity in the service industries was offset by a fall in the primary industries. Goods-producing industries also rose."

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NZD/USD M5: range price movement by New Zealand's Gross Domestic Product news event

NZDUSD price chart by MT5

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Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After

  1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
  2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
  3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
  4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.03.22 14:03

NZD/USD - daily ranging for direction; 0.7153 is the key for the bearish reversal (based on the article)

Daily price is located inside Ichimoku cloud in the ranging area of the chart. Price was formed descending triangle pattern with 0.7153 support level to be crossed to below for the bearish reversal to be started.

NZDUSD AscTrend daily chart

  • "The New Zealand Dollar rebounded against its US counterpart after meeting chart support but the dominant trajectory continues to favor weakness. The currency pair has been drifting downward in a choppy channel since establishing a double top above the 0.74 figure. That trend remains intact for now. From here, a daily close above resistance marked by a chart inflection point at 0.7260 targets the 0.7355-63 area (March 13 high, channel top). Alternatively, a break of the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 0.7140 would also pierce the channel floor, marking down trend acceleration and exposing the 50% level at 0.7048."
  • "A short NZD/USD position was activated at 0.7320. Its initial target at 0.7186 has been hit and profit was booked on half of open exposure. The remainder of the trade continues to be in play to capture any follow-on weakness. A stop-loss will be triggered on a discretionary basis if the boundaries of the overall down trend appear to have been breached."

============

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.03.26 10:19

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: NZ Overseas Merchandise Trade and range price movement 

2018-03-25 22:45 GMT | [NZD - Trade Balance]

  • past data is -655M
  • forecast data is -100M
  • actual data is 217M according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[NZD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

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From rttnews article :

  • "New Zealand posted a merchandise trade surplus of NZ$217 million in February, Statistics New Zealand said on Monday - representing 4.9 percent of exports. The headline figure exceeded expectations for a deficit of NZ$100 million following the downwardly revised NZ$655 million deficit in January (originally -NZ$566 million)."

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NZD/USD M15: range price movement by Overseas Merchandise Trade news event 

NZDUSD Brainwashing Chart on MT5

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicator:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.03.28 09:17

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ANZ Business Confidence and range price movement 

2018-03-28 01:00 GMT | [NZD - ANZ Business Confidence]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - ANZ Business Confidence] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

==========

From rttnews article :

  • "The activity outlook in New Zealand showed modest improvement in March, the latest survey from ANZ Bank revealed on Wednesday with an index score of 21.8."
  • "However, the bank also noted that its business confidence index sank to a reading of -20, from -19 in the previous month."

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NZD/USD M15: range price movement by ANZ Business Confidence news event 

NZDUSD

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After


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