Forecast and levels for GBP - page 9

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.11.19 11:04

Weekly GBP/USD Outlook: 2017, November 19 - November 26 (based on the article)

GBP/USD was under pressure as Brexit negotiations remain stuck and worries about the economy persist. The upcoming week features the GDP report and also the government’s Autumn Statement.


  1. Public Sector Net Borrowing: Tuesday, 9:30. A level of 6.6 billion is on the cards now.
  2. CBI Industrial Order Expectations: Tuesday, 11:00. A bounce back to positive ground, to +3 points, is forecast now.
  3. Autumn Forecast Statement: Wednesday, 12:30. Chancellor of the Exchequer Phillip Hammond will present new government policy in the British parliament. Fresh forecasts regarding growth, inflation, and employment will be of interest, but Brexit could grab the headlines. Hammond is one of the leaders of the soft-Brexit camp and the internal fights could surface in his appearance. The session could be long and volatile for the pound.
  4. UK GDP (second release): Thursday, 9:30. The second release will likely confirm this growth rate.
  5. CBI Realized Sales: Thursday, 11:00. Realized sales plunged from +42 to -36 in October and could rebound now. +5 is projected.
  6. High Street Lending: Friday, 9:30.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.11.29 14:51

Intra-Day Fundamentals - GBP/USD, AUD/USD and USD/CAD: GDP Second Release

2017-11-29 13:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]

  • past data is 3.0%
  • forecast data is 3.3%
  • actual data is 3.3% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - GDP] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods.

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From official report :

  • "Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.3 percent in the third quarter of 2017 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent."
  • "The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 3.0 percent. With this second estimate for the third quarter, the general picture of economic growth remains the same; nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and private inventory investment were revised up from the prior estimate (see "Updates to GDP" on page 2)."

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GBP/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events


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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events


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USD/CAD M1: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events


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The charts were made on MT5 with MA Channel Stochastic system uploaded on this post, and using standard indicators from Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.12.11 15:42

GBP into BoE with Credit Agricole: "hopes for earlier rate hikes" (based on the article)

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2017-12-14 12:00 GMT | [GBP - Official Bank Rate]

  • past data is 0.50%
  • forecast data is 0.50%
  • actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Official Bank Rate] = Interest rate at which the BOE lends to financial institutions overnight. 

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Daily price  is on bullish ranging above ichimoku cloud within the following support/resistance levels:

1.3321 support level for the bearish reversal to be started with 1.3198 target to re-enter, and
1.3520 resistance level for the bullish trend to be resumed with 1.3549 bullish target to re-enter.

Most likely scenario for this week: ranging within the levels wanting for the direction of the trend to be started.


  • "Some positives are already in the price of GBP, therefore currency gains may slow down from here."

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

  1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
  2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
  3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
  4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread  


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.12.13 11:20

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ILO Unemployment Rate, Average Earnings Including Bonuses 3m/y and range price movement 

2017-12-13 09:30 GMT | [GBP - Average Earnings Index]

  • past data is 2.3%
  • forecast data is 2.5%
  • actual data is 2.5% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Average Earnings Index] = Change in the price businesses and the government pay for labor, including bonuses. 

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From official report :

  • "Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in nominal terms (that is, not adjusted for price inflation) increased by 2.5% including bonuses and by 2.3% excluding bonuses, compared with a year earlier."
  • "The unemployment rate (the proportion of those in work plus those unemployed, that were unemployed) was 4.3%, down from 4.8% for a year earlier and the joint lowest since 1975."

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GBP/USD M5: range price movement by Average Earnings Index news event 


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The chart was made on MT5 with MA Channel Stochastic system uploaded on this post, and using standard indicators from Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.12.19 10:49

GBP/USD - daily ranging near and above the bearish reversal levels (based on the article)

Daily price is on bullish ranging to eb above Ichimoku cloud within the following support/resistance levels:

1.3549 resistance level located in the bullish trend to be resumed, and
1.3285 support level located in the bearish reversal to be started.

Most likely scenario in the near future: daily ranging near and above the bearish reversal levels.


  • "GBP/USD can be directed to a deeper area on the chart. The levels of 1.3117 and 1.3216 could be helpful for such a purpose. At 1.3117, we have the 38.2% retracement of the ‘Brexit move’ in the pair, and at 1.3216, we have the 50% retracement of the August-September 2017 bullish move; and this is the same with which the 38.2% has been operable over the past two weeks. "
  • "Support in this zone opens the door for stops below the Q4 swing-low of 1.3026, targeting prior resistance at the 1.3477 Fibonacci level."

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The chart was made on H4 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.12.28 14:27

GBP To Dollar Forecast For 2018, 2019, 2020 And 2021 (based on the article)



  • Pound to Dollar forecast for January 2018.
    In the beginning rate at 1.340 Dollars. High exchange rate 1.360, low 1.320. The average for the month 1.340. The GBP to USD forecast at the end of the month 1.340, change for January 0.0%.
  • GBP to USD forecast for February 2018.
    In the beginning rate at 1.340 Dollars. High exchange rate 1.384, low 1.340. The average for the month 1.357. The GBP to USD forecast at the end of the month 1.364, change for February 1.8%.
  • Pound to Dollar forecast for March 2018.
    In the beginning rate at 1.364 Dollars. High exchange rate 1.373, low 1.333. The average for the month 1.356. The GBP to USD forecast at the end of the month 1.353, change for March -0.8%.
  • GBP to USD forecast for April 2018.
    In the beginning rate at 1.353 Dollars. High exchange rate 1.415, low 1.353. The average for the month 1.379. The GBP to USD forecast at the end of the month 1.394, change for April 3.0%.
  • Pound to Dollar forecast for May 2018.
    In the beginning rate at 1.394 Dollars. High exchange rate 1.394, low 1.344. The average for the month 1.374. The GBP to USD forecast at the end of the month 1.364, change for May -2.2%.
  • GBP to USD forecast for June 2018.
    In the beginning rate at 1.364 Dollars. High exchange rate 1.405, low 1.363. The average for the month 1.379. The GBP to USD forecast at the end of the month 1.384, change for June 1.5%.
  • Pound to Dollar forecast for July 2018.
    In the beginning rate at 1.384 Dollars. High exchange rate 1.421, low 1.379. The average for the month 1.396. The GBP to USD forecast at the end of the month 1.400, change for July 1.2%.
  • GBP to USD forecast for August 2018.
    In the beginning rate at 1.400 Dollars. High exchange rate 1.414, low 1.372. The average for the month 1.395. The GBP to USD forecast at the end of the month 1.393, change for August -0.5%.
  • Pound to Dollar forecast for September 2018.
    In the beginning rate at 1.393 Dollars. High exchange rate 1.457, low 1.393. The average for the month 1.420. The GBP to USD forecast at the end of the month 1.435, change for September 3.0%.
  • GBP to USD forecast for October 2018.
    In the beginning rate at 1.435 Dollars. High exchange rate 1.476, low 1.432. The average for the month 1.449. The GBP to USD forecast at the end of the month 1.454, change for October 1.3%.
  • Pound to Dollar forecast for November 2018.
    In the beginning rate at 1.454 Dollars. High exchange rate 1.454, low 1.410. The average for the month 1.437. The GBP to USD forecast at the end of the month 1.431, change for November -1.6%.
  • GBP to USD forecast for December 2018.
    In the beginning rate at 1.431 Dollars. High exchange rate 1.481, low 1.431. The average for the month 1.451. The GBP to USD forecast at the end of the month 1.459, change for December 2.0%.
  • Pound to Dollar forecast for January 2019.
    In the beginning rate at 1.459 Dollars. High exchange rate 1.461, low 1.417. The average for the month 1.444. The GBP to USD forecast at the end of the month 1.439, change for January -1.4%.
  • GBP to USD forecast for February 2019.
    In the beginning rate at 1.439 Dollars. High exchange rate 1.492, low 1.439. The average for the month 1.460. The GBP to USD forecast at the end of the month 1.470, change for February 2.2%.
  • Pound to Dollar forecast for March 2019.
    In the beginning rate at 1.470 Dollars. High exchange rate 1.470, low 1.405. The average for the month 1.443. The GBP to USD forecast at the end of the month 1.426, change for March -3.0%.
  • GBP to USD forecast for April 2019.
    In the beginning rate at 1.426 Dollars. High exchange rate 1.429, low 1.387. The average for the month 1.413. The GBP to USD forecast at the end of the month 1.408, change for April -1.3%.


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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.01.12 15:04

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/CNH: U.S. Retail Sales

2018-01-12 13:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

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From cnbc article :

  • "U.S. retail sales increased in December as households bought a range of goods and figures for the prior month were revised higher, suggesting the economy exited 2017 with strong momentum."
  • "The Commerce Department said on Friday that retail sales rose 0.4 percent last month. Data for November was revised to show sales gaining 0.9 percent instead of the previously reported 0.8 percent increase."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Retail Sales news events


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GBP/USD M1: range price movement by U.S. Retail Sales news events


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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by U.S. Retail Sales news events


==========

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.01.26 15:17

Intra-Day Fundamentals - GBP/USD, USD/CAD and Brent Crude Oil: U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 

2018-01-26 13:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]

  • past data is 3.2%
  • forecast data is 3.0%
  • actual data is 2.6% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

==========

From official report :

  • "Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2017 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.2 percent."

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GBP/USD M1: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)  news events


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USD/CAD M1: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)  news events


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Brent Crude Oil M1: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)  news events


============

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.01.28 12:21

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GBP/USD (based on the article)


GBP/USD - "We remain fundamentally positive on GBP - as we have for the past couple of weeks - and look for further gains ahead, although the velocity of movement may slow down with Sterling currently sitting at relatively lofty levels. The latest set of data releases have seen inflation inched down – from 3.1% to 3% - while average UK wage growth nudged a touch higher - to 2.4% from 2.3%. While UK real wages remain negative, any narrowing of the inflation/wages gap will be welcome, especially by the weak retail sector. In addition the latest quarterly GDP release showed the UK economy expanding by an above expectation 0.5%, driven by a strong showing from the dominant services sector."

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Chart was made on MT4 using iFibonacci indicator and MaksiGen_Range_Move indicator from CodeBase (free to download).


 
GBP/USD: MAIN INTRADAY TARGET IS 55 MA
09:51 30.01.2018


We've got a "Double Top" pattern, which has been confirmed. The main intraday target is the 55 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens afterwards, there'll be a moment to have another upward price movement.


All the Moving Averages have been broken, but there's a "V-Bottom" pattern, so the pair is likely going to reach the nearest resistance at 1.4082. If we have a pullback from this level, bears will probably try to achieve the next support at 1.3915 - 1.3884.
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